大越期货沪铜周报-20260330

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, Shanghai copper prices declined and then stabilized. The main contract of Shanghai copper rose 1.26% to close at 95,930 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors supported copper prices, while the Middle East events and high oil prices might affect the Fed's future interest - rate cuts. In China, the consumption season is approaching, but downstream consumption willingness is average. The domestic spot copper trading is mainly for rigid demand. LME copper inventory was 360,250 tons and increased significantly last week, while SHFE copper inventory decreased by 51,986 tons to 359,135 tons [3]. - The copper market is in a tight balance in 2024 and will be in surplus in 2025 [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review - The Shanghai copper main contract rose 1.26% last week, closing at 95,930 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors supported copper prices, and high oil prices might affect the Fed's future interest - rate cuts. In China, downstream consumption willingness is average, and domestic spot copper trading is mainly for rigid demand. LME copper inventory increased significantly, while SHFE copper inventory decreased by 51,986 tons to 359,135 tons [3]. 3.2. Fundamentals - PMI: No detailed information provided [9]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The copper market is in a tight balance in 2024 and will be in surplus in 2025. The 2018 - 2024 China annual copper supply - demand balance table shows different supply - demand situations in each year, with a supply surplus of 110,000 tons in 2024 [11][14]. - Inventory: Exchange inventory is in the process of destocking, and bonded - area inventory remains at a low level [15][20]. 3.3. Market Structure - Processing Fees: Processing fees are at a low level [23]. - CFTC Position: Non - commercial net long positions in CFTC are flowing out [25]. - Spot - Futures Price Difference: No detailed information provided [28]. - Import Profit: No detailed information provided [31]. - Warehouse Receipts: No detailed information provided.