大越期货白糖早报-20260330

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zheng sugar is oscillating upward, with the K - line standing above the long - term moving average and the moving averages starting to diverge upward. Technically, there is a trend of moving into a right - side market. The domestic consumption peak season is approaching, the crude oil price is rising, and the price of sugar - made ethanol is increasing, which indirectly supports the sugar price. The sugar price shows a pattern of advancing three steps and retreating two steps, with the center of gravity slowly rising. The main contract is about to shift to the 09 contract, and the strategy is to go long on short - term pullbacks [5][8]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the content 3.2 Daily Hints - Fundamentals: Datagro forecasts a 268 - thousand - ton sugar deficit in the 26/27 sugar - crushing season. ISO expects a 1.22 - million - ton global sugar surplus in the 25/26 season, down from the previous forecast of 1.63 million tons. Covrig Analytics predicts that the global sugar surplus in the 26/27 season will shrink to 1.4 million tons, lower than the 4.7 - million - ton surplus in the 25/26 season. Green Pool estimates a 156 - thousand - ton global sugar surplus in the 26/27 season, less than the 2.74 - million - ton surplus in the 25/26 season. As of the end of January 2026, the cumulative sugar production in the 25/26 season in China is 6.89 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales are 2.9 million tons, and the sales rate is 42.09%. From January to February 2026, China imported 520,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 440,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder is 142,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 32,900 tons [4]. - Basis: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5470, and the basis is - 17 (for the 09 contract), indicating a discount to the futures price [5]. - Inventory: As of the end of January, the industrial inventory in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season is 3.99 million tons [5]. - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a bullish trend [5]. - Main Position: The position is bearish, the net short position is increasing, and the main trend is bearish [5]. - Expectations: Zheng sugar is oscillating upward, with the K - line standing above the long - term moving average and the moving averages starting to diverge upward. The domestic consumption peak season is approaching, the crude oil price is rising, and the price of sugar - made ethanol is increasing, which indirectly supports the sugar price. The sugar price shows a pattern of advancing three steps and retreating two steps, with the center of gravity slowly rising. The main contract is about to shift to the 09 contract, and the strategy is to go long on short - term pullbacks [5][8]. - Positive Factors: The sugar production in Brazil may decline in the 26/27 season. The tariff on syrup has increased. American cola has changed its formula to use sucrose. The crude oil price is rising [6]. - Negative Factors: The global sugar production is increasing. The import profit window is open, and the import impact is intensifying [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus - Not provided in the content 3.4 Fundamental Data - Supply and Demand Forecasts by Different Institutions: Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply and demand in the 25/26 and 26/27 seasons. For example, ISO expects a 1.22 - million - ton surplus in the 25/26 season; StoneX predicts an 870,000 - ton surplus in the 25/26 season; Czarnikow estimates a 6.7 - million - ton surplus in the 25/26 season; Green Pool forecasts a 156,000 - ton surplus in the 26/27 season [4][8][29]. - Domestic Sugar Production and Sales Data: As of the end of January 2026, the cumulative sugar production in the 25/26 season in China is 6.89 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales are 2.9 million tons, and the sales rate is 42.09%. From January to February 2026, China imported 520,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 440,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder is 142,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 32,900 tons [4]. - Sugar - related Price Data: The import price of raw sugar after processing with 50% tariff, the domestic and international sugar prices, etc. For example, on March 11, 2026, the ICE raw sugar closing price is 14.22 cents per pound, the RMB exchange rate is 6.8749, the in - quota cost is 4015 yuan per ton, and the out - of - quota cost is 5100 yuan per ton [34]. 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the content