大越期货沪镍、不锈钢早报-20260330

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints 2.1沪镍 - Last week, nickel prices fluctuated with an upward bias, mainly influenced by Indonesian policies and some positive news on the cost side. Supply: In March, production scheduling increased, domestic inventories continued to accumulate, and the market supply was sufficient. In the industrial chain, nickel ore prices were firm, the Indonesian RKAB policy continued to ferment, and Indonesia's bargaining power for nickel ore continued to rise. Nickel iron prices were weakly stable, and the cost line was firm. Stainless steel inventories increased slightly, and demand was weak. New energy vehicle production and sales data met expectations, with a large month - on - month decline in the off - season. Overall, it is bearish [3]. - The basis of spot nickel is 1900, which is bullish [3]. - LME nickel inventory is 281574 (-666), and the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 57069 (-524), which is bearish [3]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is neutral [3]. - The net long position of the main contract increased, which is bullish [3]. - Conclusion: The Shanghai nickel 2605 contract will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [3]. 2.2 Stainless Steel - The spot stainless steel price remained flat. In the short term, nickel ore prices were firm, demand in Indonesia was strong, nickel iron prices were weakly stable, and the cost line had strong support. Stainless steel inventories increased slightly, and demand was weak. Overall, it is neutral [5]. - The basis of stainless steel is 672.5, which is bullish [5]. - The futures warehouse receipt is 45676 (unchanged), which is neutral [5]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [5]. - Conclusion: The stainless steel 2605 contract will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Nickel, Stainless Steel Price Overview | Type | 3 - 27 | 3 - 26 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai nickel main contract | 137100 | 135860 | +1240 | | LME nickel | 17215 | 17165 | +50 | | Stainless steel main contract | 14390 | 14390 | 0 | | SMM1 electrolytic nickel (spot) | 139000 | 139350 | -350 | | 1 Jinchuan nickel (spot) | 141550 | 142050 | -500 | | 1 imported nickel (spot) | 136450 | 136450 | 0 | | Nickel beans (spot) | 139100 | 139100 | 0 | | Cold - rolled coil 3042B (Wuxi, spot) | 15100 | 15100 | 0 | | Cold - rolled coil 3042B (Foshan, spot) | 14900 | 14900 | 0 | | Cold - rolled coil 3042B (Hangzhou, spot) | 15100 | 15100 | 0 | | Cold - rolled coil 3042B (Shanghai, spot) | 15150 | 15150 | 0 | [10] 3.2 Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventories - As of March 27, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 64479 tons, of which the futures inventory was 57069 tons, an increase of 818 tons and 379 tons respectively [12]. | Type | 3 - 27 | 3 - 26 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LME nickel inventory | 281574 | 282240 | -666 | | Nickel warehouse receipts | 57069 | 57593 | -524 | | Total inventory | 338643 | 339833 | -1190 | [13] 3.3 Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventories - On March 27, the Wuxi inventory was 601200 tons, the Foshan inventory was 390900 tons, and the national inventory was 1157500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30100 tons. Among them, the 300 - series inventory was 696700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3000 tons [17]. - The stainless steel futures warehouse receipt on March 27 was 45676 tons, unchanged from the previous day [18]. 3.4 Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron Prices | Nickel Ore | Grade | 3 - 27 | 3 - 26 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Laterite nickel ore CIF | Ni1.5% | 79.5 | 79.5 | 0 | USD/wet ton | | Laterite nickel ore CIF | Ni0.9% | 35 | 35 | 0 | USD/wet ton | | Freight from Philippines to Lianyungang | | 14.5 | 14.5 | 0 | USD/ton | | Freight from Philippines to Tianjin Port | | 16 | 16 | 0 | USD/ton | | High - nickel wet ton | 8 - 12 | 1085.73 | 1085.52 | +0.21 | CNY/nickel point | | Low - nickel wet ton | <2 | 3650 | 3650 | 0 | CNY/ton | [22] 3.5 Stainless Steel Production Costs | Traditional Cost | Scrap Steel Production Cost | Low - Nickel + Pure Nickel Cost | | --- | --- | --- | | 14205 | 14085 | 17964 | [24] 3.6 Nickel Import Cost Calculation The converted import price is 134894 CNY/ton [26]