大越期货油脂早报-20260330

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The prices of edible oils are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic edible oil supply is stable. Sino-US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The soaring international crude oil price drives up the oil price. The domestic edible oil fundamentals are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: The MPOB report shows that in December, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 5.46% month-on-month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% month-on-month to 1.3165 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory increased by 7.59% month-on-month to 3.0506 million tons. The report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil in January increased by 29% month-on-month. Subsequently, it enters the production reduction season, and the supply pressure of palm oil decreases. It is neutral [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,800, and the basis is 112. The spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish [2] - Inventory: On March 9, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, compared with 1.08 million tons previously, a month-on-month decrease of 60,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 14.7%. It is bearish [2] - Market: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. It is bullish [2] - Main Position: The long position of the main soybean oil contract increased. It is bullish [2] - Expectation: The price of soybean oil Y2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,400 - 8,800 [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - Fundamentals: The same as that of soybean oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. The export data in January increased by 29% month-on-month, and the supply pressure decreases in the production reduction season. It is neutral [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 9,700, and the basis is -68. The spot price is at a discount to the futures price. It is bearish [3] - Inventory: On March 9, the port inventory of palm oil was 736,000 tons, compared with 733,800 tons previously, a month-on-month increase of 2,200 tons and a year-on-year increase of 46%. It is bearish [3] - Market: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. It is bullish [3] - Main Position: The short position of the main palm oil contract decreased. It is bearish [3] - Expectation: The price of palm oil P2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,500 - 9,900 [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - Fundamentals: The same as that of soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. The export data in January increased by 29% month-on-month, and the supply pressure decreases in the production reduction season. It is neutral [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,340, and the basis is 453. The spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish [4] - Inventory: On March 9, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250,000 tons, compared with 270,000 tons previously, a month-on-month decrease of 20,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 44%. It is bullish [4] - Market: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. It is bullish [4] - Main Position: The short position of the main rapeseed oil contract increased. It is bearish [4] - Expectation: The price of rapeseed oil OI2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,600 - 10,000 [4] Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - Bullish: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, and the supply is tight. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5] - Bearish: The edible oil prices are at a relatively high level historically, and the domestic edible oil inventory continues to accumulate. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related edible oils is high [5] - Main Logic: The global edible oil fundamentals are relatively loose [5]