大越期货尿素早报-20260330

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Urea Morning Report [2] - Date: March 30, 2026 [2] - Author: Zhu Tianyi from the Investment Consulting Department of Dayue Futures [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The current daily production and operating rate of urea have slightly declined, but the overall daily output remains at a high level in recent years, with sufficient supply [4] - Industrial demand has recovered, and the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine have significantly increased. Agricultural demand has shown differentiation, with the spring plowing fertilizer demand in the northern region entering the final stage and the topdressing demand in the southern rice - growing areas starting. The comprehensive inventory is being depleted [4] - The overseas price has continued to strengthen due to geopolitical factors, and the price gap between domestic and international exports has widened. However, the relevant authorities have required enterprises to prioritize domestic spring plowing needs, so the impact of international prices is limited [4] - The UR2605 contract basis is - 17, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.9%, which is bearish. The UR comprehensive inventory is 870,000 tons (- 106,000), which is bullish. The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish. The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [4] - It is expected that the UR main contract will fluctuate today, with high daily production year - on - year, recovering demand, depleting inventory, a large international supply gap, and domestic supply guarantee policies restricting exports [4] Group 4: Urea Overview Summary Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Current daily production and operating rate have a slight decline, but the overall daily output is at a high level in recent years, with sufficient supply [4] - Demand: Industrial demand has recovered, and agricultural demand is differentiated. The comprehensive inventory is being depleted. The overseas price is strong, but domestic supply is prioritized [4] Other Indicators - Basis: UR2605 contract basis is - 17, premium - discount ratio - 0.9%, bearish [4] - Inventory: UR comprehensive inventory is 870,000 tons (- 106,000), bullish [4] - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, bullish [4] - Main Position: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, bearish [4] Expectations - The UR main contract is expected to fluctuate today, considering factors such as high daily production, recovering demand, inventory depletion, large international gap, and domestic supply - guarantee export restrictions [4] Group 5: Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Production | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | End - of - Period Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 2245.5 | - | 1956.81 | 448.38 (18.6%) | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | - | | 2019 | - | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 (17.9%) | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 (19.3%) | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 (10.7%) | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 (10.2%) | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 (8.4%) | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 (9.5%) | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 4906 | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [9] Group 6: Market Data Spot Market - Spot delivery product price is 1860, unchanged; Shandong spot price is 1900, up 10; Henan spot price is 1860, unchanged; FOB China price is 4925 [6] Futures Market - The 05 contract price is 1877, up 2; the basis is - 17, down 2; UR01 price is 1921, up 1; UR05 price is 1877, up 2; UR09 price is 1928, down 11 [6] Inventory - Warehouse receipts are 8707, down 317; UR comprehensive inventory is 870,000 tons, down 106,000; UR factory inventory is 701,000 tons, down 108,000; UR port inventory is 169,000 tons [6] Group 7: Factors Affecting the Market Bullish Factors - Good demand - Overseas prices continue to strengthen [5] Bearish Factors - Daily production is at a high level in history [5] Main Logic - International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]