棉花早报2026年3月30日-20260330

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The overall view on cotton is moderately bullish. The report indicates that the fundamentals, basis, market trends, and main positions all show positive signals. With the arrival of the traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April", along with a reduction in US tariffs and an improvement in Sino - US relations, textile exports are favored. The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton is about to shift to the 09 contract, with resistance around 15,700, and the center of gravity is slowly rising. The trading idea is slightly bullish with intraday fluctuations [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - No information provided on the previous day's review in the given report. 3.2 Daily Prompt - Fundamentals: ICAC predicts that global consumption in the 26/27 season will be 25 million tons and production will be 24.8 million tons. In 2026, the cotton planting area in Xinjiang is regulated, with an expected reduction of over 10%. USDA's March report shows that in the 25/26 season, production is 26.343 million tons, consumption is 25.817 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.631 million tons. From January to February, textile and clothing exports were $50.45 billion, a year - on - year increase of 17.6%. China's cotton imports from January to February were 370,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 41%; cotton yarn imports were 290,000 tons, an increase of 80,000 tons year - on - year. The Ministry of Agriculture's March forecast for the 25/26 season shows production of 6.64 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.6 million tons, and ending inventory of 8.29 million tons [4]. - Basis: The national average price of spot 3128b cotton is 16,814, and the basis is 1,284 (for the 09 contract), with the spot price at a premium to the futures price [4]. - Inventory: The Ministry of Agriculture's forecast for the ending inventory in the 25/26 season in March is 8.29 million tons [4]. - Market Trends: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average [4]. - Main Positions: The positions are bullish, the net long positions are increasing, but the main trend is not clear [4]. - Expectations: Textile exports were good from January to February. With the arrival of the traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April", along with a reduction in US tariffs and an improvement in Sino - US relations, textile exports are favored. The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton is about to shift to the 09 contract, with resistance around 15,700, and the center of gravity is slowly rising. The trading idea is slightly bullish with intraday fluctuations [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus - Positive Factors: In 2026, the cotton planting area in Xinjiang is regulated, with an expected reduction of over 10%. Downstream replenishment occurred before the Spring Festival. Tariffs on exports to the US have been reduced. Sino - US relations have improved. The traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April" has arrived [5]. - Negative Factors: Overall foreign trade orders have declined, and inventory has increased. A large amount of new cotton is on the market. Currently, it is in the traditional consumption off - season [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast: From 2021/22 to 2025/26, production has generally increased, and consumption has remained relatively stable. The ending inventory in 2025/26 is 16.631 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4% [9][10]. - Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (ICAC): In the 2026/27 season, production is expected to decrease by 4% to 24.8 million tons, mainly due to declines in Brazil and the US; consumption is expected to decrease by 0.7% to 25 million tons; the ending inventory is expected to decrease by 1% to 16.6 million tons; the inventory - to - consumption ratio is expected to decrease by 0.2 percentage points to 66.4%; the global cotton trade volume is expected to decrease by 2.2% to 9.6 million tons; the yield per unit area is expected to decrease by 1.6% to 822 kg/ha; the planting area is expected to decrease by 0.7% to 30.2 million hectares [11]. - China's Cotton Data: From 2024/25 to 2025/26, production is expected to increase from 5.62 million tons to 6.64 million tons, imports are expected to be 1.4 million tons, consumption is expected to be 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is expected to be 8.29 million tons. The domestic average price of 3128B cotton is expected to be in the range of 15,000 - 17,000 yuan/ton, and the Cotlook A Index is expected to be in the range of 75 - 100 cents/pound [13]. 3.5 Position Data - No information provided on position data in the given report.