大越期货沪镍、不锈钢周报-20260330

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, nickel prices fluctuated and trended stronger, mainly influenced by Indonesian policies and some positive news on the cost side. The supply is sufficient with increased production scheduling in March and rising domestic inventories. In the industrial chain, nickel ore prices are firm, the Indonesian RKAB policy continues to have an impact, and Indonesia's bargaining power for nickel ore is rising. Ferronickel prices are weakly stable with a firm cost line. Stainless steel inventories have slightly increased, and demand is weak. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles meet expectations, with a significant month - on - month decline in the off - season [6]. - The global nickel market is expected to maintain a supply surplus pattern dominated by low - cost production capacity in Indonesia. Traditional demand such as stainless steel has weak growth, but the high - nickel trend in the new energy field will provide key structural support. The industry will accelerate the elimination of high - cost production capacity in the context of持续 low prices, and the bottom of nickel prices will be anchored to the cost line of Indonesian nickel pig iron [24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Viewpoints and Strategies - Viewpoints: This week, nickel prices fluctuated and trended stronger, influenced by Indonesian policies and cost - side factors. Supply is sufficient, with increased production scheduling and rising inventories. In the industrial chain, nickel ore prices are firm, ferronickel prices are weakly stable, stainless steel inventories have increased, and new energy vehicle production and sales are in the off - season [6]. - Operation Strategies: The main contract of Shanghai nickel will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average. The main contract of stainless steel will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [7][8]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Industrial Chain Weekly Price Changes - Nickel Ore: The price of red earth nickel ore (CIF) NI1.5%, Fe30 - 35% decreased from $78 to $77, a decline of 1.28%; the price of red earth nickel ore (CIF) NI1.4%, Fe30 - 35% decreased from $73 to $72, a decline of 1.37%. Battery - grade and electroplating - grade nickel sulfate prices remained unchanged. Low - nickel ferronickel (Shandong) and high - nickel ferronickel (Shandong) prices remained unchanged [11]. - Electrolytic Nickel: Shanghai electrolytic nickel increased from 140,690 yuan to 141,870 yuan, an increase of 0.84%; Shanghai Russian nickel increased from 134,040 yuan to 136,320 yuan, an increase of 1.70%; Jinchuan's ex - factory price increased from 140,600 yuan to 141,400 yuan, an increase of 0.57% [12]. - Stainless Steel: The price of 304 stainless steel remained unchanged at 15,062.5 yuan [12]. 3.2.2 Nickel Ore Market Conditions - Price and Freight: Nickel ore prices decreased by $1 per wet ton this week, and ocean freight decreased by $2 per wet ton compared to last week [15][16]. - Inventory: On March 26, 2026, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 7.4184 million wet tons, a decrease of 508,200 wet tons or 6.41% from the previous period. Philippine nickel ore inventory was 7.1684 million wet tons, a decrease of 458,200 wet tons or 6%; other countries' nickel ore inventory was 250,000 wet tons, a decrease of 50,000 wet tons or 16.67% [16]. - Import: In February 2026, nickel ore imports were 1.2239 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 160,300 tons or 11.58%, and a year - on - year increase of 77,800 tons or 6.79%. From January to February 2026, the total nickel ore imports were 2.6081 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.73% [16]. 3.2.3 Electrolytic Nickel Market Conditions - Price and Spot: This week, nickel prices fluctuated and strengthened, mainly affected by Indonesian policies and cost factors. Domestic inventories are high, supply is sufficient, downstream demand is for essential purchases, and the premium has decreased [23]. - Production: In February 2026, China's refined nickel production was 32,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.45% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.65%. From January to February 2026, the cumulative refined nickel production was 67,825 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.65%. In March 2026, the estimated refined nickel production was 39,430 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20.95% and a year - on - year increase of 7.54% [30]. - Import and Export: In February 2026, China's refined nickel imports were 16,930.903 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5,135 tons or 23.27%, and a year - on - year increase of 9,333 tons or 122.85%. The net import of refined nickel was 14,664.072 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 62.85% and a year - on - year decrease of 172.99%. From January to February 2026, the cumulative refined nickel imports were 38,997.234 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5,821 tons or 17.54%. In February 2026, China's refined nickel exports were 2,266.831 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,547 tons or 40.56%, and a year - on - year decrease of 17,934 tons or 88.78% [34]. - Inventory: LME inventory decreased by 1,938 tons to 281,574 tons. SHFE inventory increased by 818 tons to 64,479 tons. Social inventory data shows that Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts increased by 379 tons, spot inventory increased by 1,511 tons to 26,238 tons, bonded area inventory decreased by 200 tons to 2,770 tons, and the total inventory increased by 1,690 tons to 86,077 tons [39]. 3.2.4 Ferronickel Market Conditions - Price: According to Mysteel data, low - nickel ferronickel prices remained unchanged at 3,500 yuan/ton, and high - nickel ferronickel prices remained unchanged at 1,100 yuan/nickel point. According to SMM data, high - nickel ferronickel prices decreased by 0.5 yuan/nickel to 1,083.5 yuan/nickel, and low - nickel ferronickel prices decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 3,650 yuan/ton [44][45]. - Production: In February 2026, China's nickel pig iron actual production was 21,100 tons of metal, a month - on - month decrease of 1.39%. Medium - and high - nickel pig iron production was 16,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.59%; low - nickel pig iron production was 4,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28.67%. From January to February 2026, China's total nickel pig iron production was 42,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.48%, of which the nickel metal production of medium - and high - nickel pig iron was 31,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.73% [47]. - Import: In February 2026, China's ferronickel imports were 831,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 78,200 tons or 8.6%, and a year - on - year decrease of 77,300 tons or 8.51%. From January to February 2026, China's total ferronickel imports were 1.7415 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 96,500 tons or 5.25% [50]. - Inventory: In February, the tradable ferronickel inventory was 178,300 physical tons, equivalent to 17,000 tons of nickel. The tradable medium - and high - nickel ferronickel was 152,300 tons, equivalent to 16,900 tons of nickel [53]. 3.2.5 Stainless Steel Market Conditions - Price: The price of 304 stainless steel (average price of four locations) remained unchanged from last week [58][59]. - Production: In February, stainless steel crude steel production was 2.71 million tons, including 818,300 tons of 200 - series, 572,300 tons of 400 - series, and 1.3194 million tons of 300 - series, a month - on - month decrease of 29% [63]. - Import and Export: The latest data shows that stainless steel imports were 109,000 tons and exports were 260,000 tons [66]. - Inventory: On March 27, the inventory in Wuxi was 601,200 tons, in Foshan was 390,900 tons, and the national inventory was 1.1575 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 30,100 tons. The inventory of 300 - series was 696,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,000 tons [69]. 3.2.6 New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales - Vehicle Production and Sales: In February, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 694,000 and 765,000 respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 21.8% and 14.2%. From January to February, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.735 million and 1.71 million respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 8.8% and 6.9%. New energy vehicle sales accounted for 41.2% of total vehicle sales [74]. - Power Battery: In February, the total production of power and energy - storage batteries was 141.6 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 15.7% and a year - on - year increase of 41.3%. From January to February, the cumulative production of power and energy - storage batteries was 309.7 GWh, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 48.8%. In February, the domestic power battery loading volume was 26.3 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 37.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 24.6%. From January to February, the cumulative domestic power battery loading volume was 68.3 GWh, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 7.2% [77]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line, the price rebounded, fluctuated, and strengthened, returning to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average. The main contract positions increased to some extent, and the bullish force was relatively strong. The MACD indicator showed a golden cross and started to point upwards, and the KDJ slowly entered the overbought area. The previous bottom was supported again, and after the rebound, the pressure of the 20 - day moving average was evident. It may continue to fluctuate in the future [80]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Summary - Nickel Ore: Neutral to bullish. The RKAB policy continues to have an impact, there is strong demand support in Indonesia, and mine quotes are firm [83]. - Ferronickel: Neutral. Ferronickel prices are weakly stable, and cost support is strong [83]. - Refined Nickel: Neutral to bearish. Supply is sufficient, and inventories are at a high level [83]. - Stainless Steel: Neutral. Inventories have increased, and consumption is weak [83]. - New Energy: Neutral. It is the off - season for consumption, and production has decreased significantly month - on - month [83].