大越期货贵金属早报-20260330

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The concern about the escalation of the Middle - East situation still exists, causing gold and silver prices to rise and then fall. The expectation of peace talks between the US and Iran has significantly improved the sentiment, but there is still a possibility of the Middle - East situation escalating, so the gold price will fluctuate. The cease - fire negotiation between the US and Iran has reached a deadlock, and the risk appetite has decreased, leading to a decline in the silver price. The uncertainty of the US - Iran peace - talk expectation is high, but the sentiment has eased, and the silver price will also fluctuate [4][5]. - The continuous escalation of the US - Iran conflict, high oil prices, and the rising expectation of interest - rate hikes have led to the gold price continuing to give back its gains in recent years. With the upcoming mid - term elections, there is still support from the macro - aspect [10][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day Review - Gold: The concern about the escalation of the Middle - East situation still exists, and the gold price rose and then fell. US and European stock markets closed down. The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 1.81 basis points to 4.428%. The US dollar index rose 0.26% to 100.19. The COMEX gold futures rose 2.59% to $4489.70 per ounce. The basis was - 3.6, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price. The gold futures warehouse receipts decreased by 99 kilograms to 106,644 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was below the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, but the long position of the main force decreased [4]. - Silver: The concern about the escalation of the Middle - East situation still exists, and the silver price rose and then fell. US and European stock markets closed down. The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 1.81 basis points to 4.428%. The US dollar index rose 0.26% to 100.19. The COMEX silver futures rose 2.70% to $69.77 per ounce. The basis was - 14, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 1,500 kilograms to 371,799 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was below the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, but the long position of the main force decreased [5][6]. 3.2. Daily Tips - Gold: The expectation of peace talks between the US and Iran has significantly improved the sentiment, but the Middle - East situation may still escalate, and the gold price will fluctuate. The premium of Shanghai gold has converged to 1.6 yuan per gram [4]. - Silver: The cease - fire negotiation between the US and Iran has reached a deadlock, and the risk appetite has decreased, leading to a decline in the silver price. The premium of Shanghai silver has expanded to about 2,000 yuan per kilogram. The uncertainty of the US - Iran peace - talk expectation is high, but the sentiment has eased, and the silver price will fluctuate [5]. 3.3. Today's Focus - G7 meeting to discuss the release of strategic oil reserves (time to be determined); - The Bank of Japan to release the summary of opinions of the deliberation members at the March monetary policy meeting at 07:50; - Switzerland's March KOF economic leading indicator at 15:00; - UK's February central bank mortgage approvals at 16:30; - Eurozone's March economic sentiment index and the final value of the March consumer confidence index at 17:00; - Germany's March CPI preliminary value at 20:00; - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech and the US March Dallas Fed business activity index at 22:30; - FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams to give a speech at 04:00 the next day [16]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The continuous escalation of the US - Iran conflict, high oil prices, and the rising expectation of interest - rate hikes have led to the gold price continuing to give back its gains in recent years. With the upcoming mid - term elections, there is still support from the macro - aspect [10]. - Silver: The continuous escalation of the US - Iran conflict, high oil prices, and the rising expectation of interest - rate hikes have led to the gold price (should be silver price here) continuing to give back its gains in recent years. With the upcoming mid - term elections, there is still support from the macro - aspect. The photovoltaic and technology sectors support the silver price, and the low spot inventory and hot supply - shortage game are also positive factors [13][15]. 3.5. Position Data - Gold: The long position of the top 20 Shanghai gold holders decreased by 1,974 to 147,144, a decrease of 1.32%. The short position increased by 2,307 to 44,494, an increase of 5.47%. The net position decreased by 4,281 to 102,650, a decrease of 4.00% [41]. - Silver: The long position of the top 20 Shanghai silver holders increased by 238 to 240,033, an increase of 0.10%. The short position increased by 1,561 to 214,706, an increase of 0.73%. The net position decreased by 1,323 to 25,327, a decrease of 4.96% [44]. - ETF: The SPDR gold ETF position remained flat, and the silver ETF position decreased slightly [46][48]. - Warehouse Receipts: COMEX gold warehouse receipts continued to decrease but remained at a high level, and Shanghai gold warehouse receipts increased slightly. Shanghai silver warehouse receipts increased slightly and were at the lowest level in the past six years, and COMEX silver warehouse receipts continued to decrease [50][52].