大越期货豆粕早报-20260330

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For Soybean Meal (M2605): It is expected to oscillate in the range of 2900 - 2960. The U.S. soybean market is affected by the implementation of the biodiesel policy and technical adjustments, waiting for further guidance on Sino - U.S. trade agreements and South American soybean harvest weather. The domestic soybean meal market is influenced by the U.S. soybean trend and the short - term easing of the Middle East conflict, returning to an oscillating pattern. The current situation is neutral, with a positive basis, an increase in inventory, a neutral position on the disk, a decrease in short positions of the main force, and an overall short - term oscillating and strengthening trend [9]. - For Soybeans (A2605): It is expected to oscillate in the range of 4500 - 4600. The U.S. soybean market has similar influencing factors as above. The domestic soybean market is affected by the U.S. soybean trend and the short - term cooling of the Middle East conflict, but short - term demand supports the disk. It is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term. The current situation is neutral, with a positive basis, a decrease in inventory, a negative position on the disk, an increase in short positions of the main force, and various factors affecting the price [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - Not provided in the report 2. Recent News - The preliminary Sino - U.S. tariff negotiation agreement is short - term positive for U.S. soybeans, but the quantity of Chinese purchases and U.S. soybean weather are still uncertain. The U.S. market is expected to be strongly oscillating in the short term, waiting for further guidance on South American soybean harvest, imported soybean arrivals, and subsequent Sino - U.S. trade negotiations [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China continues to decline in the first quarter, while the soybean inventory of oil mills remains at a relatively high level in March. The planting and growth weather of South American soybeans is relatively normal, and soybean meal has returned to an interval oscillation [13]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits leads to a low expectation of pig restocking, and the demand for soybean meal remains low in March, suppressing the price expectation. The influence of U.S. soybeans and the weak demand for soybean meal interact [13]. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remains at a relatively high level. There is still a possibility of weather speculation in South American soybean production areas, and the preliminary Sino - U.S. trade negotiation agreement has an impact. Soybean meal is expected to be strongly oscillating in the short term, waiting for further clarity on the Middle East situation, confirmation of South American soybean production, and further guidance on subsequent Sino - U.S. trade negotiations [13]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - Soybean Meal: The positives include the preliminary Sino - U.S. trade negotiation agreement, no pressure on the soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in South American soybean production areas. The negatives are the relatively high arrival volume of imported soybeans in March and the expected high yield of South American soybeans under normal weather conditions. The current main logic is to focus on the impact of South American soybean harvest weather and the follow - up of the preliminary Sino - U.S. trade agreement [14]. - Soybeans: The positives are the cost support of imported soybeans for the domestic soybean disk and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand. The negatives are the high yield of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in the production of new domestic soybeans. The current main logic is to focus on the impact of U.S. soybean weather and the Sino - U.S. trade tariff game [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data: From March 19th to 27th, the transaction prices and volumes of soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal also showed small fluctuations [16]. - Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Prices: From March 20th to 27th, the futures and spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal showed a downward trend [18]. - Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics: From March 18th to 27th, the warehouse receipts of soybeans and soybean meal decreased to varying degrees [20]. - Soybean Meal Spot Price: The spot price of soybean meal showed a downward trend, and the spot premium at a high level narrowed [23]. - Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets: They show the historical data of global and domestic soybean harvest areas, production, consumption, and inventory from 2016 to 2025 [32][33]. - Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress: It includes the planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Argentina, the U.S., and Brazil from 2023 - 2026 [34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43]. - USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports: They show the planting area, yield, production, and other data of U.S. soybeans in the past six months [44]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the report Other Data - The weekly export inspection of U.S. soybeans has rebounded both month - on - month and year - on - year [45]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans has rebounded from a low level, both month - on - month and year - on - year [47]. - The soybean inventory of oil mills has slightly decreased, and the soybean meal inventory has returned to a normal level [50]. - The soybean crushing volume of oil mills remains at a relatively high level, and the soybean meal production in February decreased slightly year - on - year [52]. - The unexecuted contracts of oil mills have slightly decreased, and the short - term stocking demand is good [54]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans has oscillated and decreased following U.S. soybeans, and the disk profit has fluctuated slightly [56]. - The pig inventory has slightly increased year - on - year, while the sow inventory has decreased year - on - year and slightly decreased month - on - month [58]. - The pig price has continued to decline recently, and the average slaughter weight has slightly decreased [60]. - The proportion of large pigs in China has decreased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs has fluctuated slightly [62]. - The domestic pig - farming profit loss has expanded [64]. - The pig - grain ratio and feed - meat ratio have fallen to a low level [66].