工业硅期货周报-20260330

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, this week's 05 contract showed an upward trend, with the opening price on Monday at 8,550 yuan/ton and the closing price on Friday at 8,625 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 0.88%. It is expected that next week, the supply-side production schedule will increase but remain at a low level, while demand recovery will also be at a low level, and cost support will rise. The disk is expected to have a bearish oscillatory adjustment [4][5]. - For polysilicon, this week's 05 contract showed a downward trend, with the opening price on Monday at 38,180 yuan/ton and the closing price on Friday at 35,680 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 6.54%. It is expected that next week, the supply-side production schedule will continue to increase, and the overall demand will show a continuous decline. Cost support will remain stable. The disk is expected to have a bullish oscillatory adjustment [6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply: This week, the industrial silicon supply was 78,000 tons, remaining flat compared to the previous week. The sample enterprise output was 40,760 tons, a 1.17% increase. The expected monthly operating rate is 44.46%, a 6.44 - percentage - point increase from last month's 38.02% [4]. - Demand: This week, the industrial silicon demand was 68,000 tons, a 1.44% decrease. In the polysilicon sector, the inventory was 332,000 tons, higher than the historical average. In the organic silicon sector, the inventory was 58,500 tons, lower than the historical average, and the production profit was 2,430 yuan/ton. In the aluminum alloy sector, the inventory of aluminum alloy ingots was 44,900 tons, higher than the historical average [5]. - Cost: The production cost of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang was 9,769.7 yuan/ton, remaining flat. The cost support increased during the dry season [5]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 560,000 tons, a 1.27% increase. The sample enterprise inventory was 191,100 tons, a 3.38% decrease. The main port inventory was 134,000 tons, a 1.47% decrease [5]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the polysilicon output was 19,400 tons, a 2.10% increase. The predicted production schedule for March is 84,900 tons, a 10.25% increase compared to last month [6]. - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer output was 11.38 GW, a 3.39% decrease. The battery cell output in February was 37.09 GW, a 10.49% decrease. The component output in February was 29.3 GW, a 16.76% decrease. The production of silicon wafers is currently in a loss state, while the production of battery cells and components is in a profitable state [6]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 40,060 yuan/ton, with a production income of - 310 yuan/ton [6]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 332,000 tons, a 3.48% decrease, at a historical high [7]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread: The document shows the historical trends of the SI main contract basis and the price spread between 421 and 553 silicon in East China [13][14]. - Inventory: It presents the historical trends of industrial silicon inventory in delivery warehouses, ports, and sample enterprises [16][17][18]. - Production and Capacity Utilization: It shows the historical trends of industrial silicon production, capacity utilization, and operating rates of sample enterprises in different regions [19][20][22]. - Cost: It includes the historical trends of main - producing area electricity prices, silicon stone prices, graphite electrode prices, and some reducing agent prices, as well as the cost trends of 421/553 silicon in Sichuan, Xinjiang, and Yunnan [24][25][28]. - Supply - Demand Balance: It provides the weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables of industrial silicon, showing the production, import, export, consumption, and balance of industrial silicon [31][32][35]. - Downstream Industries - Organic Silicon: It includes the price, production, import - export, and inventory trends of DMC, as well as the price trends of downstream products such as 107 glue, raw rubber, silicone oil, and D4 [37][38][40]. - Aluminum Alloy: It shows the price, supply, inventory, production, and demand trends of aluminum alloy, including waste aluminum recycling, import of aluminum crushed materials, and the production and sales of automobiles and aluminum alloy wheels [49][50][55]. - Polysilicon: It presents the cost, price, inventory, production, and supply - demand balance trends of polysilicon, as well as the trends of silicon wafers, battery cells, photovoltaic components, photovoltaic accessories, and photovoltaic grid - connected power generation [59][60][63]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - SI Main Contract: This week, the main 05 contract showed an upward trend, and it is expected to have a bearish oscillatory adjustment next week [81][82]. - PS Main Contract: This week, the main 05 contract showed a downward trend, and it is expected to have a bullish oscillatory adjustment next week [83].