大越期货碳酸锂期货周报-20260330

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 05 contract showed an upward trend this week, with the opening price on Monday at 141,500 yuan/ton and the closing price on Friday at 168,440 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 19.04%. It is expected that next week, the supply side's production scheduling will decrease, the demand side will continue to increase, and the cost will remain low. The market may experience a bullish and volatile adjustment [4][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Categories Review and Outlook - Supply Side: This week, the lithium carbonate production was 24,814 tons, higher than the historical average. Lithium spodumene production was 15,314 tons, a 2.68% month-on-month increase; lithium mica production was 3,227 tons, a 0.94% increase; salt lake production was 3,715 tons, a 4.21% increase; and recycling production was 2,558 tons, a 1.91% increase [4]. - Demand Side: In February 2026, the demand for lithium carbonate was 111,503 physical tons, a 10.57% month-on-month decrease. The predicted demand for next month is 132,845 physical tons, a 19.14% increase. In February, the export volume was 208 physical tons, a 49.26% decrease, and the predicted export volume for next month is 625 physical tons, a 0.48% increase [5]. - Cost Side: The cost of externally purchased lithium spodumene concentrate was 159,158 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.89%, resulting in a loss of 3,183 yuan/ton. The cost of externally purchased lithium mica was 151,428 yuan/ton, a 3.96% daily increase, with a profit of 1,295 yuan/ton. The production cost on the recycling side was generally higher than that of the ore side, with negative production income and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost on the salt lake side was 32,231 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that of the ore side, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [6]. - Inventory Side: The smelter inventory was 17,332 tons, a 4.36% month-on-month increase, lower than the historical average. The downstream inventory was 46,657 tons, a 1.20% increase, higher than the historical average. Other inventories were 35,500 tons, a 1.82% decrease, lower than the historical average. The total inventory was 99,489 tons, a 0.62% increase, lower than the historical average [7]. Fundamental Analysis - Lithium Ore Supply: The report presents historical price trends of lithium ore (6% CIF), production of Chinese sample lithium spodumene mines, domestic total lithium mica production, monthly imports of lithium concentrate, lithium ore self - sufficiency rate, and weekly port trader and unsold lithium ore inventories [14]. - Lithium Carbonate Supply: It includes the weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate (by source), weekly production of lithium carbonate (by source), monthly production of lithium carbonate (by grade and raw material), monthly import volume of lithium carbonate, and the amount of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China [20][23]. - Lithium Hydroxide Supply: It shows the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic lithium hydroxide, monthly operating rate of lithium hydroxide (by source), production capacity of lithium hydroxide (by source), production of lithium hydroxide (by source), and export volume of Chinese lithium hydroxide [29]. - Lithium Compound Cost - Profit: It analyzes the cost - profit of externally purchased lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, various recycled lithium materials, industrial - grade lithium carbonate purification, lithium hydroxide carbonization to lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide processing, smelting and causticizing methods of lithium hydroxide, lithium hydroxide export, and lithium carbonate causticizing to lithium hydroxide [35][38][41]. - Inventory: It provides information on lithium carbonate warehouse receipts, weekly and monthly inventories of lithium carbonate (by source), and monthly inventories of lithium hydroxide (by source) [43]. - Demand - Lithium Battery - Power Battery: It includes the price trend of batteries, monthly production of power battery cells, monthly power battery loading volume, power cell monthly shipment volume, lithium battery exports, and cell cost [47]. - Demand - Lithium Battery - Energy Storage: It shows the inventory of lithium battery cells, energy storage system EPC and other equipment bidding prices and average prices, energy storage battery industry operating rate, energy storage cell monthly shipment volume, monthly production of energy storage cells, and the cost - price trend of 314Ah lithium iron phosphate energy storage cells [49]. - Demand - Ternary Precursor: It presents the price of ternary precursors, cost and profit of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/consumer), processing fees of ternary precursors, capacity utilization rate of ternary precursors, production capacity of ternary precursors, and monthly production of ternary precursors [52]. - Demand - Ternary Precursor - Supply - Demand Balance: It provides a monthly supply - demand balance sheet of ternary precursors, including export, demand, import, production, and balance [55]. - Demand - Ternary Material: It includes the price of ternary materials, cost - profit of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer), weekly operating rate of ternary materials, production capacity of ternary materials, production of ternary materials, processing fees of ternary materials, export and import volumes of ternary materials, and weekly inventory of ternary materials [58][61]. - Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium: It shows the price of iron phosphate/iron phosphate lithium, production cost of iron phosphate, cost - profit trend of iron phosphate lithium, production capacity of iron phosphate/iron phosphate lithium, monthly operating rate of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium, monthly production of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium, monthly export volume of iron phosphate lithium, and weekly inventory of iron phosphate lithium [62][65][67]. - Demand - New Energy Vehicle: It includes the production, export volume, sales volume, sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles, retail - to - wholesale ratios of hybrid and pure - electric vehicles by the Passenger Car Association, monthly dealer inventory warning index, and monthly dealer inventory index [70][74]. Technical Analysis - The main 05 contract showed an upward trend this week. Based on the LC main contract's price, trading volume, and moving average data, it is expected that the market may experience a bullish and volatile adjustment next week [77].