大越期货沥青期货早报-20260330

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the asphalt market is expected to show a narrow - range oscillation. The asphalt 2606 contract is predicted to oscillate within the range of 4409 - 4655. The market is affected by multiple factors, including supply, demand, cost, and inventory. The supply pressure has been reduced recently due to refinery production cuts, but it may increase next week. The overall demand is lower than the historical average, affected by the off - season. The cost is supported by the strengthening of crude oil, and the inventory shows a trend of continuous destocking [7]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. The positive factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the negative factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward demand with the increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Supply: In April 2026, the total domestic asphalt production plan was 1.527 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 440,000 tons (22.4%) and a year - on - year decrease of 764,000 tons (33.3%). The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples was 20.4338%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.34 percentage points. The shipment of sample enterprises was 126,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.66%. The output of sample enterprises was 341,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.26%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 1.2 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.18%. Refineries have reduced production recently to relieve supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [7]. - Demand: The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt was 19.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.11 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of building asphalt was 5.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.29 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of modified asphalt was 3.1047%, a month - on - month increase of 1.98 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of road - modified asphalt was 14%, a month - on - month increase of 4.00 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of waterproofing membranes was 45%, a month - on - month increase of 9.00 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - Cost: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 497.43 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 69.70%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 844.9771 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 9.86%. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to provide short - term support [7]. - Basis: On March 27, the spot price in Shandong was 4330 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 06 contract was - 202 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish [7]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 1.214 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.59%; the in - factory inventory was 757,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.93%; the port diluted asphalt inventory was 590,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.66%. The social inventory continued to accumulate, while the in - factory and port inventories continued to destock, which is bullish [7]. - Market: The MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 06 contract closed above the MA20, which is bullish [7]. - Main Position: The main position was net long, with a decrease in long positions, which is bullish [7]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the price, change, and basis information of multiple asphalt futures contracts, as well as the price information of some spot and related indicators such as registered warehouse receipts and monthly spreads [14][16]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China from 2020 to 2026 through graphs, which helps to analyze the price relationship between the spot and futures markets [18][20][21]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread: The report shows the historical spread trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts of asphalt from 2020 to 2026 through graphs, which is useful for spread trading analysis [23][24]. - Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend: The report presents the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 to 2026 through graphs, which helps to analyze the price relationship between asphalt and crude oil [26][27]. - Crude Oil Crack Spread: The report shows the historical crack spreads of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) from 2020 to 2026 through graphs, which is important for analyzing the profitability of refining [29][30][31]. - Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend: The report presents the historical price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2026 through graphs, which helps to analyze the relative price relationship among these products [33][34]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The report shows the historical price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China and Shandong from 2020 to 2026 through graphs, which helps to understand the price changes in different regions [36][37]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis - Asphalt Profit: The report shows the historical profit trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2026 through graphs, which helps to analyze the profitability of asphalt production [38][39]. - Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend: The report shows the historical profit spread trends between coking and asphalt from 2018 to 2026 through graphs, which is important for analyzing the profit difference between different production processes [41][42][43]. - Supply - Side Analysis - Shipment Volume: The report shows the historical weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2026 through graphs, which helps to understand the supply situation [45][46]. - Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory: The report shows the historical domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2026 through graphs, which is useful for analyzing the supply of raw materials [48][49]. - Output: The report shows the historical weekly and monthly output of asphalt from 2019 to 2026 through graphs, which helps to understand the overall supply capacity [51][53]. - Marine Heavy Oil (Maro) Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Output Trend: The report shows the historical price of Maro crude oil and the monthly output of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2026 through graphs, which is important for analyzing the impact of raw material supply on asphalt production [54][56]. - Local Refinery Asphalt Output: The report shows the historical output of local refinery asphalt from 2019 to 2026 through graphs, which helps to understand the supply contribution of local refineries [57][58]. - Capacity Utilization Rate: The report shows the historical weekly capacity utilization rate of asphalt from 2023 to 2026 through graphs, which helps to analyze the production efficiency [60][61]. - Estimated Maintenance Loss: The report shows the historical estimated maintenance loss trends of asphalt from 2018 to 2026 through graphs, which is useful for analyzing the impact of equipment maintenance on supply [63][64]. - Inventory Analysis - Exchange Warehouse Receipts: The report shows the historical exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) of asphalt from 2019 to 2026 through graphs, which helps to understand the inventory situation in the futures market [66][67][68]. - Social Inventory and In - Factory Inventory: The report shows the historical social inventory (70 samples) and in - factory inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 to 2026 through graphs, which helps to analyze the overall inventory situation [70][71]. - In - Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio: The report shows the historical in - factory inventory inventory ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2026 through graphs, which is important for analyzing the inventory management of refineries [73][74]. - Import and Export Situation - Export and Import Trends: The report shows the historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2026 through graphs, which helps to understand the international trade situation of asphalt [76][77]. - South Korean Asphalt Import Spread Trend: The report shows the historical import spread trend of South Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2026 through graphs, which is useful for analyzing the price difference in imports [80][81]. - Demand - Side Analysis - Petroleum Coke Output: The report shows the historical output of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2026 through graphs, which helps to understand the demand for asphalt in related industries [82][83]. - Apparent Consumption: The report shows the historical apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 to 2026 through graphs, which helps to analyze the overall market demand [85][86]. - Downstream Demand - Highway Construction and Transportation Fixed - Asset Investment: The report shows the historical highway construction and transportation fixed - asset investment from 2020 to 2025 through graphs, which helps to understand the demand for asphalt in infrastructure construction [88][89]. - New Local Special Bonds: The report shows the historical trend of new local special bonds from 2019 to 2026 through graphs, which is important for analyzing the investment in infrastructure construction and the demand for asphalt [90]. - Infrastructure Investment Completion Year - on - Year: The report shows the historical year - on - year change of infrastructure investment completion from 2020 to 2024 through graphs, which helps to understand the growth of infrastructure investment and its impact on asphalt demand [90]. - Downstream Machinery Demand: The report shows the historical sales volume trends of asphalt concrete pavers, domestic excavators, and road rollers from 2019 to 2026 through graphs, as well as the historical monthly working hours of excavators from 2020 to 2026, which helps to understand the demand for asphalt in construction machinery [92][93][94][96]. - Asphalt Construction Rate - Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Construction Rate: The report shows the historical construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt from 2019 to 2026 through graphs, which helps to understand the demand for heavy - traffic asphalt [97][98]. - Asphalt Construction Rate by Use: The report shows the historical construction rates of building asphalt, modified asphalt, and other types of asphalt from 2019 to 2026 through graphs, which helps to understand the demand for different types of asphalt [100]. - Downstream Construction Situation: The report shows the historical construction rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2021 to 2026 through graphs, which helps to understand the demand for asphalt in downstream industries [101][102][103]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: The report presents the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from 2024 to 2026, including monthly output, import volume, export volume, downstream demand, social inventory, in - factory inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory, which helps to comprehensively analyze the supply - demand relationship in the asphalt market [105][106].