生猪期货早报-20260330

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic southern pig secondary fattening period has ended, leading to a short - term reduction in pig slaughter, which supports pig prices. Meanwhile, the demand for cured meat and sausages is also over, so it is expected that both pig supply and meat supply will decrease. The domestic macro - environment expectation has improved, but the pork consumption has entered the off - season after the Spring Festival, so the short - term overall consumption is still not optimistic. The pig market this week is expected to have reduced supply and weak demand, and pig prices may enter a short - term weakening and fluctuating pattern [10]. - The spot price is at a discount to the futures. As of December 31, the pig inventory decreased by 0.8% month - on - month and increased by 0.5% year - on - year; the inventory of breeding sows decreased by 0.5% month - on - month and 2.9% year - on - year. The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward. The net position of the main force is short, and the short position is decreasing. In the near future, both the supply and demand of pigs have decreased. It is expected that pig prices will bottom out and then return to a range - bound pattern this week, with the LH2605 contract fluctuating in the range of 9,800 - 10,200 [10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints - The supply of pigs is expected to decrease in the short - term, and the pig price is expected to be weak in the short - term and maintain a range - bound pattern in the medium - term. The consumption is in the off - season after the Spring Festival, and the short - term overall consumption is not optimistic. The pig price is expected to enter a short - term weakening and fluctuating pattern [10]. 3.2 Recent News - Affected by the end of the peak demand season and the completion of secondary fattening in the south, the supply of live pigs is expected to decrease, and the spot price will be weak in the short - term and maintain a range - bound pattern in the medium - term. - After the peak demand season, the live pig market has entered a stage of reduced supply and demand, and the room for further price decline in the short - term may be limited. It may bottom out and then return to a fluctuating pattern. - The profit of pig farming has been slightly loss - making in the near future, and the enthusiasm for slaughtering large pigs has increased in the short - term. The situation of increased supply and weak demand suppresses the short - term price expectations of live pig futures and spot [12]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: The domestic pig supply is in the off - season after the Spring Festival, and the domestic pig - to - grain ratio has fallen to a historical low range. - Bearish factors: The domestic pig demand is in the off - season after the Spring Festival, and the year - on - year decrease in domestic pig inventory is lower than expected. The current main logic is that the market focuses on pig slaughter and fresh meat demand [13]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - As of March 31, the pig inventory was 408.5 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 5.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.2%. As of the end of May 2024, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.96 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.2% [28]. - The report also provides data on pig futures, warehouse receipts, and spot prices, as well as various charts related to the pig market, including price trends, inventory trends, and profit trends [14][15][17]. 3.5 Position Data - The net position of the main force in pig futures is short, and the short position is decreasing [10].