Goldman Sachs·2026-03-30 05:15Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for BYD Co. with a 12-month price target of Rmb137 for A-shares and HK$134 for H-shares, indicating an upside potential of 30.1% and 25.8% respectively [7][9]. Core Insights - BYD is positioned as a leading NEV maker both in China and globally, capturing mass-market demand while building premium brands domestically. The company is expected to see significant growth from overseas markets, contributing 92% of incremental vehicle sales volume from 2024 to 2028E and increasing overseas profit contribution from 21% in 2024 to 76% by 2028E [6]. - The total vehicle sales volume is projected to grow from 4.3 million in 2024 to 7.1 million by 2030E, supported by a comprehensive product portfolio and strong in-house capabilities for vehicle technology innovation [6]. - The report highlights that BYD's A/H shares are trading below their historical average 12-month forward P/Es, which is viewed as attractive for investors [6]. Financial Performance Summary - In 4Q25, BYD reported revenue of Rmb237.7 billion, which was 6% lower than expected, primarily due to higher dealer rebates and lower revenue from external battery sales [1]. - Gross profit increased by 7% to Rmb41.4 billion, with a gross profit margin of 17.4%, exceeding expectations due to better cost control and increased premium brand contributions [1][5]. - Net profit fell by 20% to Rmb9.3 billion, missing expectations mainly due to foreign exchange losses of Rmb1.66 billion and lower government subsidies of Rmb3.3 billion [1][5].