Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the semiconductor industry, particularly in the silicon wafer and silicon carbide sectors, driven by strong demand from electric vehicles and artificial intelligence applications [1][2]. Core Insights - The price of silicon wafers in China has been declining, with a forecast for stabilization by 2027 due to capacity expansion [1]. - The market for silicon carbide is significantly influenced by the electric vehicle sector, with penetration rates expected to reach 28% in 2025 and 40% in 2026 [1][7]. - The Chinese silicon wafer market is dominated by five companies, holding a 57% global market share, with significant improvements in technology quality [1][5]. - Geopolitical factors are impacting the semiconductor industry, necessitating careful consideration of tariffs and policies [1][14]. Summary by Sections Silicon Wafer Market - In 2024, the price of silicon wafers in China decreased by 17%, with further declines of 8% in 2025 and an expected 5% in 2026 [4]. - The market is expected to stabilize in 2027 as production capacity continues to expand [4]. Silicon Carbide Market - The price of silicon carbide fell by 16% in 2024 and is projected to decrease by 17% in 2025, driven by strong demand from the electric vehicle market [5][6]. - Local manufacturers are significantly increasing their output, contributing to the optimistic market outlook for silicon carbide substrate manufacturers [8]. Key Companies to Watch - Notable companies include Nora (silicon carbide and nitride equipment supplier), Xingyi and Sankexing (leaders in AI server orders), and SICC (local silicon carbide substrate leader) [2][15]. - Infineon is highlighted for its strong performance in silicon carbide strategy, with capabilities in IGBT and silicon wafer production, as well as involvement in AI power chips [1][16]. Geopolitical Considerations - The semiconductor industry faces pressures from geopolitical factors, including tariffs and trade policies, which could affect pricing and market dynamics [1][14]. - Investors are advised to weigh these geopolitical influences carefully when considering investments in the sector [14].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on DiDi Global Inc. with a "Buy" rating and a 12-month price target of US$7.20, indicating a 35% upside potential [1][27][34]. Core Insights - DiDi is positioned to capitalize on the growing global mobility market, particularly in autonomous driving and shared mobility, with a strong valuation compared to peers [1][27]. - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue and EPS growth, with projected CAGRs of 8% and 44% respectively from 2024 to 2027 [2][28]. - DiDi's market leadership in China, with a 70% market share, and its expansion into international markets, particularly in Latin America, are key growth drivers [27][31]. Summary by Sections 1. Domestic Mobility Growth - DiDi operates within a growing RMB 744 billion shared mobility total addressable market (TAM) in China, with expectations for continued growth in ride-hailing services [28][31]. - The company aims to improve profit margins by reducing user subsidies and leveraging operational efficiencies, with a target GTV margin of 6-7% by 2030-35 [31][32]. 2. Robotaxi Opportunity - The report views robotaxis as a significant growth opportunity rather than a threat, projecting that DiDi will capture a substantial share of the robotaxi market by 2030 and 2035 [34][35]. - DiDi's autonomous fleet is expected to contribute significantly to its overall trip volume and profit margins in the coming years [34][35]. 3. International Business Expansion - DiDi has established a strong presence in Latin America, particularly in Brazil and Mexico, with significant user bases and transaction volumes [28][31]. - The company is also diversifying into food delivery services, leveraging its existing rider network to compete effectively in the region [31][32]. 4. Valuation and Fundamentals - DiDi's current valuation at 14X domestic 2026E P/E is considered attractive compared to its peers, with potential for re-rating based on strong growth fundamentals [2][32]. - The report highlights that DiDi's discounted valuation is influenced by non-fundamental factors, including liquidity concerns and competitive pressures in the food delivery market [32][34].

16 July 2025 | 6:07AM HKT Navigating China Internet: eCommerce tracker Latest on the food delivery & on-demand eCommerce landscape; June online retail +5% yoy In our latest eCommerce tracker, we refresh our Alibaba and JD estimates (cutting 2025E-27E earnings by -1% to -10%) given the higher-than-expected intensity of food delivery & on-demand competition in the near-term, as the 'everyday app' battle by eCommerce players continues. The latest on-demand retail & food delivery industry daily order volumes pe ...

Market Insights 市场洞察 NFLX unofficially kicks off Q2 TMT earnings season Thurs post close. As always, there remains an acute focus on Positioning into prints. Below, we try to summarize key high-level positioning & flow dynamics, informed by what we see across our trading floor and what we've picked up from extensive investor dialogue. E週研纪要和海外投行报告加V：shuimu2026 E How the Subsectors stack up? 各子行业表现如何? Semis 半导体.ayost crowded pocket of TMT, if not, the market right now, as the group remains the cleanest expre ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Anta Sports Products with a 12-month price target of HK$117, indicating an upside potential of 30.3% from the current price of HK$89.80 [16][18]. Core Insights - Anta's operational update for 2Q25 shows retail sales growth for its core brand at +LSD% year-over-year, while Fila and other brands performed better, with Fila growing at +MSD% and Descente and Kolon exceeding +40% and +70% respectively [1][12]. - The management expressed confidence in the recovery of the Anta brand in 2H25 following restructuring efforts in 2Q25, with a full-year growth target of HSD% for Anta core, MSD% for Fila, and over 30% for other brands [1][12]. - The report highlights the solid performance of Fila and smaller brands, which are expected to offset any potential weaknesses in the Anta brand, thus providing a positive outlook for the overall group [1][12]. Operational Updates - In 2Q25, Anta's core brand faced challenges due to management restructuring and weaker offline traffic, leading to a slower sales growth compared to previous quarters [7][8]. - The e-commerce channel showed growth at +LSD%, while offline sales also recorded similar growth rates, indicating a balanced performance across channels [7][8]. - The management has initiated a "Light-house Store Campaign" to enhance store performance in lower-tier cities, which involves optimizing underperforming stores and potentially closing some temporarily [8][12]. Brand Performance - Fila's retail sales grew by +MSD% year-over-year in 2Q25, with the core Fila brand achieving +HSD% growth, indicating strong brand momentum [11][12]. - Other brands like Descente and Kolon reported impressive growth rates, with Descente achieving over 40% and Kolon over 70% year-over-year [11][12]. - MAIA, still in its incubation stage, posted over 30% growth in 2Q25, driven by an expanding offline presence and innovative retail formats [12]. Margin and Cost Control - Management noted some headwinds on gross profit margins due to a shift towards online sales channels, which typically involve deeper discounts [13]. - Operating expenses for the Anta brand were well-controlled in 1H25, with expectations for increased marketing expenses in 2H25 due to planned events [13]. - The overall margin outlook remains positive, supported by stronger growth in smaller brands that typically carry higher operating profit margins [13].

Global Robotaxi: Raising Robotaxi TAM and Fleet size in China on operators' rising deployment; 10%/29% penetration rate by 2030/35E 16 July 2025 | 4:19AM HKT Since we launched our China robotaxi industry estimates in May, we have seen robotaxi operators remain positive on the long-term outlook. We remain positive on Robotaxi industry growth, due to: (1) Technology: the enhancing software and hardware capability improves Robotaxi safety and riding experience (e.g. normal driving speed similar to human driver ...

Navigating China Internet: Top AI/apps tracker: Focus around chip supply and AI application adoption; solid June app engagement China's top AI applications maintained healthy user engagement trends in June with key investor focuses around 1) a potential resumption of Nvidia H20 chip supply: where the company announced on July 15 that it expects the US regulator to grant licenses to restart shipments, alongside a new & fully compliant NVIDIA RTX PRO GPU. We believe resumption of foreign chip supply could bod ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating on Pop Mart (9992.HK) with a 12-month target price of HK$260.00, reflecting a downside of 1.2% from the current price of HK$263.20 [10][19]. Core Insights - Pop Mart's 1H25 profit alert indicates a sales increase of no less than 200% year-on-year, translating to at least Rmb13.7 billion in revenue, surpassing Goldman Sachs' estimate of 187% growth [1][15]. - The group profit is expected to rise by no less than 350% year-on-year, suggesting a net profit of Rmb4.5 billion in 1H25, which is above the previous estimate of Rmb3.8 billion [1][15]. - The robust performance is attributed to strong IP popularity, particularly the Labubu IP, and significant growth in both mainland China and overseas markets [2][3]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for Pop Mart have been revised upwards for 2025-2027, with expected revenues of Rmb32.8 billion in 2025, Rmb42.3 billion in 2026, and Rmb49.1 billion in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 152%, 29%, and 16% respectively [5][16]. - The adjusted net profit for 2025 is forecasted at Rmb10 billion, indicating a growth of 213% [16]. - The report highlights a significant EBITDA growth forecast, with expected figures of Rmb14.8 billion in 2025 and Rmb22.7 billion in 2027 [5][10]. Market Performance - Pop Mart's stock has shown substantial price performance, with an absolute increase of 588.1% over the past 12 months [11]. - The company has a market capitalization of HK$350.6 billion and an enterprise value of HK$336.7 billion [5]. Growth and Margins - The report indicates a notable expansion in net profit margin (NPM), expected to reach around 30% in 1H25, compared to 20% in 1H24 and 26% in 2H24 [1][3]. - The EBITDA margin is projected to improve to 45.1% in 2025, with continued growth in subsequent years [10][13]. Strategic Outlook - The report emphasizes the importance of extending IP popularity beyond Labubu and expanding the product category to maintain growth momentum [3][20]. - The potential for further customer base expansion is highlighted as a key driver for future earnings growth [3][20].

16 July 2025 | 4:20PM HKT China Musings FAQs about Hong Kong IPO resurgence Hong Kong's IPO market has experienced a resurgence, with 51 companies listed raising HK$124bn in capital year-to-date, and over 200 companies in the pipeline. We summarize the key investor questions: Si Fu, Ph.D. +852-2978-0200 | si.fu@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Kinger Lau, CFA +852-2978-1224 | kinger.lau@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Timothy Moe, CFA +65-6889-1199 | timothy.moe@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte Kev ...

15 July 2025 | 11:12AM EDT USA: Core CPI Somewhat Below Consensus Expectations, Estimating +0.29% for June Core PCE; Empire Index Above Expectations Empire manufacturing index +6 (2, +3) KEY NUMBERS: CPI (MoM) +0.29% for June vs. GS +0.30%, median forecast +0.3%, prior +0.08% Core CPI (MoM) +0.23% for June vs. GS +0.23%, median forecast +0.3%, prior +0.13% CPI (YoY) +2.67% for June vs. GS +2.68%, median forecast +2.7%, prior +2.35% Core CPI (YoY) +2.93% for June vs. GS +2.93%, median forecast +2.9%, prior + ...