2025 Stands Out: Goldman Sentiment Signal Turns Red With Stocks At Record Highs 2025年脱颖⽽出：在股市创历史新⾼之际，⾼盛情 绪信号亮红灯 尽管市场受到⼀轮去杠杆化和与关税相关的焦虑情绪推动，但⾼盛顶级交易员李·科珀史密斯感到 欣慰的是，当前的持仓状况已回到更有利的区间，恐慌指标有所上升（但未⼴泛蔓延），且2026年 的中期增⻓布局仍具有建设性： 这得益于政策⽀持、强劲的资产负债表以及更多与⼈⼯智能相关的 投资。 更多一手海外资讯和海外投行报告加V：shuimu2026 更多一手海外资讯和海外投行报告加V：shuimu2026 更多一手海外资讯和海外投行报告加V：shuimu2026 更多一手海外资讯和海外投行报告加V：shuimu2026 更多一手海外资讯和海外投行报告加V：shuimu2026 更多一手海外资讯和海外投行报告加V：shuimu2026 BY TYLER DURDEN TUESDAY, OCT21,2025-03:05 AM While the market has been driven by a bout ...

CHINA METALS & MINING Growth outlook reiterated - feedback from Zijin and CMOC in LME Week GS Global Metals & Mining Conference We hosted Zijin Mining and CMOC C-level management fireside chats and investors groups on Oct 14-15th in London, during the LME week GS Global Metals & Mining Conference. The discussions were centered around 1) production growth outlook for copper and gold, 2) thoughts around their M&A strategy and preference, and 3) factors driving their operational strength. Zijin and CMOC has de ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "responsibly bullish" outlook for Q4, with increased confidence for November and December compared to the current month [19]. Core Insights - The market has recently undergone a significant round of tactical derisking, influenced by renewed US-China tensions and specific events within the US credit market [15][16]. - Despite the volatility, good earnings, particularly from large banks, have been rewarded, and the US macroeconomic indicators remain decent, with 217k jobless claims reported [7]. - The S&P 500 index managed to rise by 1.7% after testing the 50-day moving average, indicating resilience in the market [10]. - Retail investors have shown confidence, with a notable inflow of $28 billion into equity funds during the week [21]. Market Dynamics - The trading community significantly reduced risk last Friday, leading to the largest selling of US and global equities since April, alongside an increase in macro shorts [20]. - The market has lost some support points, and fast money has quickly reduced positions, indicating a shift in sentiment [20][22]. - The report highlights that while various market participants still hold significant positions, the market has cleaned up some risk over the past two weeks, suggesting potential for technical improvement as October progresses [22]. Geopolitical Context - The renewed tensions between the US and China regarding tariffs have caught the market off guard, leading to fluctuations in sentiment [23][25]. - Although local confidence has been dented, the expectation of a resolution suggests that the impact on stocks may not be lasting [26]. Sector Analysis - In the technology sector, companies like AVGO and ASML have reported strong earnings, with TSMC highlighting robust AI demand, indicating a positive outlook for AI-related investments [27][28]. - The report notes that AI investment as a share of US GDP remains below 1%, suggesting room for growth compared to previous technology cycles [46]. Multi-Manager Trends - The multi-manager segment has seen a resurgence, with total assets reaching an all-time high of $430 billion, indicating strong interest and growth in this area [53][54]. - Multi-strategy managers have outperformed their equity and macro-focused peers, driven by diversified return streams that help mitigate volatility [57].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable demand outlook for the CDMO industry, with new growth points emerging from weight loss drugs, peptide drugs, and GLP-1 drugs, leading to a positive investment sentiment towards the sector. Core Insights - The geopolitical risks in the pharmaceutical industry have decreased, allowing investors to focus more on the performance, order momentum, and delivery capabilities of CDMO companies [1][4] - Chinese CDMO companies are actively expanding capacity and investing in new technologies, with firms like WuXi AppTec and Kelun Biotech accelerating overseas capacity construction to balance cost-effectiveness and maintain profit margins [1][5] - The rise of Chinese biotech firms is increasing global competition, emphasizing the importance of technical capabilities and execution quality [1][4] Summary by Sections Demand and Growth Opportunities - Overall demand in the CDMO sector remains robust, with expectations for improvement in the second half of the year, particularly driven by weight loss drugs, peptide drugs, and GLP-1 drugs [2] - ADC (antibody-drug conjugates) and bispecific antibodies are also showing new demand in the R&D sector, indicating future growth potential [2] Capacity Expansion and Profitability - The trend of overseas capacity expansion is becoming increasingly important, with many Asian companies prioritizing this despite high construction costs and long cycles due to its flexibility and risk reduction advantages [4][6] - Companies are shifting high-automation production processes overseas while leveraging domestic operational advantages to achieve cost-effectiveness [6] Company Strategies - WuXi AppTec plans to accelerate the construction of small molecule factories in Singapore and the U.S., with the Singapore facility expected to be operational by January 2027 [5] - Kelun Biotech is expanding its capacity from 30,000 liters to 44,000 liters, with multiple clinical projects progressing to mid-late stages [8] - BoroPharma is focusing on expansion through acquisitions rather than starting from scratch, utilizing shared services for operational flexibility [5] Market Trends and Policy Impact - The U.S. MFN pricing policy has had a limited initial impact, primarily affecting Medicaid, with overall drug price effects being minimal [3][10] - Tariff policies mainly target patented drugs, with manageable impacts on Chinese CDMO companies, especially those with established U.S. facilities [12] - The Chinese biotech pharma sector is performing strongly, driven by innovative pipelines and rising valuations, with significant interest in metabolic and autoimmune diseases [14]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a favorable outlook for silver prices in the medium term, with expectations of further gains due to Fed cuts attracting inflows, although it highlights greater volatility and downside risk compared to gold [18][28]. Core Insights - The current silver market is experiencing unprecedented liquidity issues, with traders rushing to transport silver bars to London to capitalize on significant premiums [1][2]. - A recent surge in silver prices, which has increased by 35% since August 26, is attributed to heightened investment interest driven by concerns over rising debt levels and currency devaluation in the West [25][8]. - The dynamics of the silver market are influenced by a sudden spike in demand from India, coupled with a dwindling supply of available bars and fears of potential US tariffs [9][20]. Summary by Sections - **Liquidity Issues**: There is a severe lack of liquidity in the silver market, with bid-ask spreads widening significantly from typical levels [10][11]. The logistics of moving silver from US vaults to London are complicated and time-consuming, contributing to the current market stress [4][5]. - **Market Dynamics**: The report notes that the silver market is less liquid and smaller than gold's, which amplifies price movements in response to investment flows [23][28]. The absence of a central bank bid for silver means that any pullback in investment could lead to disproportionate corrections [29][30]. - **Investment Trends**: The report highlights that silver and gold prices are typically correlated due to similar investment flows, but silver has lagged behind gold due to the lack of central bank support [21][22]. The recent increase in silver ETF demand has led to a drop in near-term availability and a spike in lease rates [26][25]. - **Future Outlook**: The report anticipates significant physical inflows from China and the US into the London market, which may help restore liquidity, although the path to normalization is expected to be bumpy [6][28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "responsibly bullish" outlook on the market, particularly regarding gold [31]. Core Insights - The current equity bull market and the rise of leading technology companies have raised concerns about a potential bubble, driven by exuberance around transformative technologies [4][5]. - Key differences from historical bubbles include fundamental growth driving technology sector appreciation, strong balance sheets of leading companies, and a lack of intense competition in the AI space [7][10]. - The report highlights that while technology sector valuations are becoming stretched, they have not yet reached levels consistent with historical bubbles [9]. - The upcoming Q3 earnings season is expected to show a consensus growth expectation of +6% year-over-year, with the "Magnificent Seven" tech companies anticipated to grow by +14% year-over-year [19][20]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Themes - The report discusses the ongoing debate about whether the market is in a bubble, citing historical patterns of exuberance and rapid asset price increases [4][5]. - It notes that current investor behavior and market pricing show similarities to past bubbles, but also highlights key differences that suggest a more stable environment [7][10]. 2. Positioning - The report indicates that hedge fund positions are not extreme, with a 66th percentile measure in the PB book, while systematic trading groups are near record lengths in futures [11][14]. - It emphasizes the significant inflow of $134 billion into equity ETFs and mutual funds over the past month, indicating strong household activity [15]. 3. Earnings Expectations - The report sets a clear benchmark for Q3 earnings, with expectations for growth across the S&P 500 and particularly for major tech companies [16][19]. 4. Gold Market Insights - The price target for gold has been raised to $4,900 by December 2026, driven by demand factors [20][22]. - The report discusses the broader themes affecting gold trading, including currency debasement and central bank reallocations, indicating a decoupling from traditional real rate drivers [30][29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a bearish outlook for the short term but a bullish perspective for the long term on oil prices [1][2]. Core Insights - Global oil supply is expected to increase by over 4% year-on-year in Q4 2025, primarily driven by Norway, Brazil, Guyana, Canada, and OPEC+ production increases [1][2]. - The report predicts a shift to a supply surplus over the next five quarters, averaging around 2 million barrels per day [1][2]. - Long-term bullish trends are anticipated due to declining reserve lifespans and insufficient investment, leading to a supply-side driven bull market cycle [1][3]. - The U.S. shale oil industry plays a crucial role, with technological innovations improving recovery rates, although the industry faces challenges from short-lived investments in brownfield developments [1][5]. - OPEC is expected to increase production by the end of 2025 but may halt further increases to prevent excessive OECD inventory accumulation [1][6][7]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Forecast - Goldman Sachs holds a pessimistic view for 2026 oil prices, forecasting Brent and WTI averages at $56 and $52 respectively, influenced by significant global supply growth [2][3]. U.S. Shale Oil Industry - The U.S. shale oil sector is expected to maintain production around 14 million barrels per day in the long term, despite an overall declining trend [3][12]. - Technological advancements are extending the production peak of shale oil, with a notable increase in natural gas liquids [12][13]. OPEC's Role - OPEC's actions are pivotal, with potential production increases followed by a halt to manage inventory levels, impacting market expectations [6][7]. Brazil's Oil Production - Brazil's deepwater pre-salt developments are a key driver, contributing 80% of its oil production, with a projected 7% compound annual growth rate over the next three years [15]. Global Oil Demand Trends - Global oil demand is expected to reach 104 million barrels per day, with projections for 108-109 million barrels per day by 2030, influenced by electric vehicle adoption rates [21][19]. Investment Opportunities - The oil industry may enter another structural upcycle, presenting investment opportunities, particularly in companies with strong resource reserves and attractive basins [20][24].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on the market, highlighting high volatility and potential risks that could disrupt current optimism [1][3]. Core Insights - The S&P index has declined approximately 1.25%, with CTA no longer acting as buyers, indicating heightened market risk [1][3]. - The non-profitable tech sector has seen a parabolic rise driven by retail investors and a $100 billion digital impact, suggesting signs of market exuberance [1][5]. - Emerging market stocks have performed well over the past six months, reflecting diversified growth across the region rather than being solely driven by China [1][11]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The implied volatility remains high despite a rising stock market, as investors continue to buy put options [4]. - Quality stocks have outperformed the S&P 500 index, with a basket of short-term stocks exceeding the index by approximately 100 basis points on a given day [4]. Sector Analysis - The non-profitable tech sector's recent surge is attributed to active retail investors and discussions around significant digital investments [5]. - AI-related trades are gaining attention, with concerns about private credit risks permeating various sectors [5]. Gold Market - Gold prices have surpassed $4,000, reflecting themes of inflation and government spending, establishing itself as a de facto safe-haven asset [8]. - Central bank demand is driving gold prices, indicating a non-speculative boom in the market [8]. Emerging Markets - Emerging market stocks have shown strong performance, with 70% of the broad index maintaining positive monthly returns throughout the year [11]. - The performance is not solely led by China but includes significant contributions from regions like Europe, the Middle East, and Latin America [11]. AI Development - AI technology is penetrating emerging market companies, particularly in China and North Asia, although their investment portfolios lag behind U.S. counterparts [14]. - The current state of AI in emerging markets is still in early development, with a notably lower allocation in global funds compared to benchmarks [14].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is optimistic, with a target price for Alibaba set at $247, based on a 10x valuation multiple for core e-commerce and a 6x valuation for total revenue [1][5]. Core Insights - Alibaba's cloud revenue growth expectation has been raised to 30%-32%, driven by increased demand for AI model training and the attraction of enterprise customers through open-source models [1][3]. - The Chinese data center industry is experiencing accelerated capacity growth, with a year-on-year increase of approximately 30%, expected to reach 30 GW by year-end, primarily driven by AI demand [1][8]. - Alibaba's current valuation is around 18-19 times next year's earnings, which is lower than the 24 times seen in the US market, indicating potential for investment [2][17]. Summary by Sections Cloud Computing - Alibaba's cloud revenue grew by 26% last quarter, attracting new enterprise customers for AI model training, which lays a foundation for long-term revenue acceleration [3]. - The company occupies about 2 GW of the total data center capacity in China, which is expected to grow significantly in the coming years [8][9]. E-commerce Performance - The growth in retail business CMR and GMV is partly due to cross-selling, which may lead to savings in sales and marketing costs [4]. - The core e-commerce business is valued at a 10x multiple based on core revenue, while total revenue is valued at a 6x multiple, reflecting a strong performance [4][5]. Market Dynamics - Investors are increasingly focused on Alibaba's profitability, rapid business investment conversion rates, and cloud revenue growth, which will impact performance in the December quarter [1][14]. - The market is reassessing the self-sufficiency of China's chip supply and the growth prospects of cloud computing, with Alibaba's performance remaining tight and profit margins stable [14]. Competitive Landscape - Alibaba's full-stack AI products are seen as competitive against Google's offerings, attracting attention from US investors [7]. - The data center market in China is expected to maintain its competitive edge due to advancements in technology and efficiency [11]. Future Outlook - The overall sentiment for the next 12 months remains optimistic, driven by AI advancements and a stabilizing macroeconomic environment [2][18]. - Investors are particularly interested in the company's ability to convert business investments into user engagement and revenue growth, with expectations of continued performance improvements [15].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the CDMO industry, with expectations for improved order flow, revenue growth, and profit margins by 2026, particularly benefiting from the recovery of Chinese funding and increased demand for early projects [1][4]. Core Insights - The CDMO industry maintains a high overall profit margin, driven by the growing demand for emerging therapies and higher quality requirements from clients [2][4]. - Chinese CDMO companies are more aggressive in capacity expansion and new model investments, with capital expenditures accounting for approximately 22% of sales, while Indian companies adopt a more cautious approach [1][5]. - New trends in the CDMO industry include overseas expansion, automation, digital investments, and the development of peptide drugs and antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs) [1][6]. Summary by Sections Current Demand Situation - The global CDMO industry demand remains stable, supported by CMO projects and emerging therapies, with a notable focus on GLP-1, peptide capacity, and ADCs [2]. - Despite some pressures, overall profit margins are high due to increased demand for emerging therapies and quality assurance [2]. Investment Strategies - Chinese CDMO companies are proactive in expanding capacity and investing in new models, while Indian companies are more conservative, linking investments to visible market demand [5][12]. - Indian CDMO companies focus on geopolitical diversification and maintaining a good RFP/RFQ momentum, although the conversion of orders to actual financial results is slower than expected [8][11]. Future Market Outlook - R&D investments are expected to fluctuate in 2025, but most companies anticipate improvements in order flow, revenue growth, and profit margins by 2026, particularly due to the recovery of Chinese funding [4][15]. - The performance of Chinese companies is currently superior to that of Indian companies, with Indian firms expected to see financial results materialize by the 2026 fiscal year [11]. New Trends in the Industry - Key trends include overseas expansion, automation, digital investments, and advancements in peptide drugs and ADCs, with Chinese companies accelerating facility construction in response to geopolitical uncertainties [6][10]. - Companies like Samsung Biologics have begun operating their ADC capacity and have received significant orders from major global clients [6][10]. Geopolitical Factors - The impact of geopolitical factors on the CDMO industry has diminished, with normal business operations continuing without major disruptions [7][14]. - Some clients still consider potential disruptions from political factors, but technical strength and execution capabilities remain paramount [7]. Performance Comparison - In the peptide formulation sector, Chinese companies significantly outpace Indian firms in capacity, while Indian companies express optimism in the ADC field [10][11]. - The financial commercialization results for Indian companies are expected to lag behind those of Chinese companies, with growth rates projected to be in the mid-single digits for 2026 [11].