大越期货PVC期货早报-20260330

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of PVC increased this week, and the expected maintenance is likely to decrease next week, with a slight increase in scheduled production [8]. - The overall downstream operating rate is 45.96%, which is lower than the historical average. The profit margins for both calcium carbide - and ethylene - based production are in the red and below the historical average, which may put pressure on production scheduling [8]. - The basis is neutral, the inventory is neutral, the disk is bullish, the main position is bearish, and overall, the fundamentals are bearish [8]. - The cost of both calcium carbide - and ethylene - based production is weakening. The overall inventory is at a neutral level, and the current demand may remain sluggish. PVC2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5481 - 5749 [8]. - The positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. The negative factors are the rebound in overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and external demand [10]. - The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [11] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 PVC Market Overview - Yesterday's registered warehouse receipts decreased by 2820 to 32344, and the spot benchmark price of East China SG - 5 decreased by 20 to 5650 yuan/ton [14]. - The futures closing prices of various contracts generally declined, with the 05 contract closing at 5615 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan from the previous day [14]. - The week - to - week inventory of enterprises decreased by 7.35% to 33.8535 million tons, the calcium carbide - based factory inventory decreased by 3.56% to 25.5974 million tons, and the ethylene - based factory inventory decreased by 17.41% to 8.2561 million tons [17]. - The overall downstream operating rate increased, with the profile operating rate rising 8.85% to 37.39%, the pipe operating rate rising 5.10% to 41.20%, and the film operating rate rising 15.28% to 59.29%. However, the paste resin operating rate decreased by 3.90% to 70.95% [17]. - Both calcium carbide - and ethylene - based production are in the red, with the calcium carbide - based profit dropping 118.01% to - 34.85 yuan/ton and the ethylene - based profit dropping 79.47% to - 777.75 yuan/ton [17]. 3.2 PVC Futures Market - Basis Trend: The report presents the historical basis trends of PVC from 2022 - 2026, along with the market price in East China and the main contract closing price [20]. - Price and Volume Trends: It shows the price, trading volume, and position changes of the main PVC futures contract from February to March 2026 [23]. - Spread Analysis: It displays the historical spread trends of the main PVC futures contracts, such as the 1 - 9 and 5 - 9 spreads, from 2024 - 2025 [26]. 3.3 PVC Fundamentals - Calcium Carbide Method - Related: - Lancoke: It shows the price, cost - profit, operating rate, inventory, and daily production trends of Lancoke from 2022 - 2026 [29]. - Calcium Carbide: It presents the price, cost - profit, operating rate, maintenance loss, and production trends of calcium carbide from 2019 - 2026 [32]. - Liquid Chlorine and Raw Salt: It shows the price and production trends of liquid chlorine from 2020 - 2026, and the price and monthly production trends of raw salt from 2019 - 2026 [34]. - Caustic Soda: It presents the price, cost - profit, operating rate, weekly production, maintenance volume, apparent consumption, inventory, and flake caustic soda inventory trends of caustic soda from 2019 - 2026 [36][39]. - PVC Supply Trends: It shows the weekly capacity utilization rates of calcium carbide - and ethylene - based production, the profit margins of both methods, the daily and weekly production, weekly maintenance volume, and weekly capacity utilization rate of PVC from 2018 - 2026 [40][42]. - Demand Trends: - It presents the daily trading volume of PVC traders, weekly pre - sales volume, weekly production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream average operating rate from 2019 - 2026 [45][46]. - It shows the operating rates of PVC profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin from 2018 - 2026 [49]. - It presents the profit margin, cost, monthly production, and apparent consumption of paste resin from 2019 - 2026 [51]. - It shows the real - estate investment completion amount, cumulative housing construction area, new housing construction area, commercial housing sales area, and housing completion area from 2018 - 2026 [54]. - It presents the social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) year - on - year increase from 2019 - 2026 [56]. - Inventory: It shows the trends of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide - and ethylene - based factory inventories, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days from 2019 - 2026 [58]. - Ethylene Method: It presents the import volumes of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC exports, FOB spread (Tianjin - Taiwan), and vinyl chloride import spread (Jiangsu - Far East CIF) from 2018 - 2026 [60]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the monthly export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, import, and supply - demand difference of PVC from January 2025 to February 2026 [62]