大越期货生猪期货早报-20260330

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of pigs and pork is expected to decrease as the secondary fattening period of southern pigs in China has ended and the demand for cured meat and sausages has also finished. The overall consumption of pork remains pessimistic in the short term due to the post - Spring Festival off - season. The pig price is expected to enter a weak and volatile pattern in the short term. The market should focus on the monthly slaughter rhythm of large - scale farms and the dynamic changes at the bottom of the futures market when the spot price is weak after the release of the secondary fattening market. The expected price range of LH2605 is between 9800 and 10200 [10]. - The spot price of live pigs is in a short - term weak state, and the futures price is expected to decline in the short term, then bottom out and rebound, or maintain a volatile pattern in the medium term. Further observation of supply and demand growth is needed [12]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - The supply of live pigs is expected to decrease, and the demand is also weak. The pig price may enter a weak and volatile pattern in the short term. The expected price range of LH2605 is between 9800 and 10200 [10]. 3.2 Recent News - The domestic live pig consumption market is affected by the end of the peak demand season. The secondary fattening of southern pigs has basically ended, and the supply of live pigs is expected to decrease. The spot price is in a short - term weak state and will maintain a volatile pattern in the medium term [12]. - After the peak demand season, the live pig market enters a stage of reduced supply and weak demand. The price may have limited room for further decline in the short term, and may bottom out and return to a volatile pattern [12]. - The profit of domestic pig farming has been slightly fluctuating in the short term and remains slightly in the red. The enthusiasm for slaughtering large pigs has increased in the short term, and the short - term supply - increase and demand - weak situation suppresses the expected price of live pig futures and spot [12]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: The domestic live pig supply is in the post - Spring Festival off - season, and the domestic pig - grain ratio has fallen to a historical low range [13]. - Bearish factors: The domestic live pig demand is in the post - Spring Festival off - season, and the year - on - year decrease in domestic live pig inventory is lower than expected [13]. - The current main logic is that the market focuses on the slaughter situation of live pigs and the demand for fresh meat [13]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - As of December 31, the live pig inventory was 429.67 million heads, a monthly decrease of 0.8% and a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. As of the end of December, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million heads, a monthly decrease of 0.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.9% [10]. - As of March 31, the live pig inventory was 408.5 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 5.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.2%. As of the end of May 2024, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.96 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.2% [28]. 3.5 Position Data - The net position of the main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing [10].