永安期货有色早报-20260330

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - The report maintains a mid - term bullish view on copper, believing it has demand growth and supply constraints, and suggests buying and holding in the mid - term. It also expects aluminum to have relative advantages among non - ferrous metals, with an upward trend in the export processing prosperity of aluminum plants. Zinc has a general domestic fundamental situation, but there are risks of production cuts overseas. Nickel and stainless steel are expected to maintain range - bound oscillations. Lead is expected to have a weak and volatile price. Tin's price is greatly affected by global macro - liquidity, with strong upward elasticity under loose liquidity and large downward adjustment space under tightened liquidity. Industrial silicon's price is expected to fluctuate with costs in the short - term and oscillate at the cycle bottom in the long - term. Carbonate lithium's price is macro - driven in the short - term, and there is a high probability of spot shortage in the second quarter [1][2][4][7][9][12][15][17] 3. Summary by Metal Copper - Price and Inventory: This week, copper prices rebounded to the 95,000 - 96,000 RMB range. The domestic scrap copper supply is expected to remain tight, which may drive the further reduction of refined copper inventory. The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 51,986 tons, and the bonded warehouse premium remained unchanged [1] - Demand: High - end consumption is strong after the Spring Festival. Although Goldman Sachs has significantly lowered the consumption growth rate of domestic electrolytic copper in 2026 to a negative value, the report believes that the progress of aluminum replacing copper is debatable [1] - Outlook: The recent decline in copper prices is due to inventory pressure and potential interest - rate hikes and liquidity pressure caused by the escalation of geopolitical conflicts. The report maintains a mid - term bullish view on copper and suggests paying attention to the support around 96,000 RMB next week [1] Aluminum - Price and Inventory: The price of aluminum ingots has increased, and the domestic aluminum ingot inventory has changed from rising to falling. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 2,527 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 2,200 tons [1] - Supply: The production capacity of two aluminum plants in the UAE and Bahrain has been affected, and the global electrolytic aluminum production growth rate is expected to decline further, making supply the main trading idea in the short - term [1] - Outlook: Aluminum has relative advantages among non - ferrous metals. The overseas premium has risen further, and the fundamentals have improved marginally. The export processing prosperity of aluminum plants is expected to increase further [1] Zinc - Price and Inventory: The price of zinc ingots has increased, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 3,436 tons, while the LME inventory decreased by 275 tons [2] - Supply and Demand: The mid - term supply of zinc ore is expected to be tight. The domestic and imported TC is at a low level, and the resumption of production in northern mines in spring is expected to drive a rebound. The demand has recovered slightly after the lifting of environmental protection restrictions in the north, and the overall inventory has accumulated to over 250,000 tons [2] - Outlook: The domestic fundamentals of zinc are general, but there are risks of production cuts overseas due to limited long - term capital investment and supply disturbances in Iran [2] Nickel - Price and Inventory: The price of nickel has decreased slightly. The domestic inventory has continued to accumulate, and the LME inventory has decreased slightly [3][4] - Supply and Demand: The supply of pure nickel in February was 32,600 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 2,600 tons). The demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the premium of Jinchuan and Russian nickel has weakened [4] - Outlook: The short - term fundamentals are weak, but there are many disturbances in the supply of nickel ore. Under the policy of strengthened nickel price control in Indonesia, it is expected that the ore will remain in a tight state throughout the year. The nickel price is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations [4] Stainless Steel - Price and Inventory: The price of stainless steel has changed little, and the inventory has decreased slightly this week [7] - Supply and Demand: The steel mill's production schedule has decreased slightly month - on - month, and the downstream is gradually recovering. The ore price has pushed up the prices of ferronickel and ferrochrome [7] - Outlook: The fundamentals are generally weak. Affected by the supply - side policy and the weak fundamentals, it is expected to follow the nickel price and maintain range - bound oscillations [7] Lead - Price and Inventory: The price of lead has changed little, and the social inventory has decreased by nearly 20,000 tons this week [8][9] - Supply and Demand: The profit of primary lead is sufficient, and the start - up rate of concentrate in spring is expected to increase. The resumption of production of recycled lead is expected to be delayed in March. The battery start - up rate has recovered this week, and the inventory of battery finished products of dealers has decreased [9] - Outlook: Affected by the overseas inventory and the support of recycled lead profit, the lead price is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [9] Tin - Price and Inventory: The tin price has oscillated, and the liquidity pressure has suppressed it. The domestic processing fee has a slight upward trend, and the LME inventory has remained unchanged [12] - Supply and Demand: The supply in Wabang is expected to recover rapidly in the second quarter, and Indonesia has determined a quota of over 60,000 tons in 2026. The demand is relatively strong, but the contribution of new consumption needs to be continuously verified [12] - Outlook: The tin price is greatly affected by global macro - liquidity. If the liquidity is loose, the upward elasticity is strong; if the liquidity is tightened, the downward adjustment space is large [12] Industrial Silicon - Price and Inventory: The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate with costs. The carbon base of different regions has changed, and the number of warehouse receipts has increased by 5 [13][15] - Supply and Demand: The overall start - up in the north has changed little, and most small and medium - sized manufacturers in the southwest are in a furnace - shutdown state. The supply and demand are close to a balanced state [15] - Outlook: In the long - term, the over - capacity of industrial silicon is still high, and the price is expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom based on the seasonal marginal cost [15] Carbonate Lithium - Price and Inventory: The price of carbonate lithium has increased, and the basis of the main contract has decreased. The number of warehouse receipts has decreased by 640 [17] - Supply and Demand: The export of Zimbabwe has not recovered, and the domestic supply of raw materials is tight. The lithium salt enterprises maintain a price - holding attitude, and the downstream purchases at a low level. The trading volume of futures and spot has decreased this week [17] - Outlook: In the short - term, the price is macro - driven. In the second quarter, there is a high probability of spot shortage, but the upward space needs the resonance of futures and spot or the realization of unexpected supply disturbances. It is recommended to pay attention to domestic automobile orders, the speed of warehouse receipt reduction, and the export policy of Zimbabwe [17]