大越期货菜粕早报-20260330

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal market is affected by factors such as the relationship between China and Canada, the demand season, and the trend of soybean meal. It is expected to maintain a volatile pattern. The RM2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2280 - 2340 [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Not provided in the given content 2. Recent News - The domestic aquaculture industry has entered the seasonal off - season, with short - term supply expected to be tight and demand suppressing the market. The export of Canadian rapeseed to China has returned to normal, and the import volume is gradually increasing [10]. - The visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China has improved Sino - Canadian trade relations in the short term, and the tariffs imposed by both sides are being gradually cancelled. The import of Canadian rapeseed by China has resumed [10]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada where the production is higher than expected [10]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict is ongoing, with the reduction in Ukrainian rapeseed production offset by the increase in Russian production. The Middle East situation has further escalated, and global geopolitical conflicts may rise, which supports commodities [10]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: Good demand for rapeseed meal in China after the Spring Festival and no pressure on oil mills' rapeseed meal inventory [11]. - Bearish factors: Short - term off - season for domestic rapeseed meal demand and the improvement of Sino - Canadian trade relations leading to the resumption of Canadian rapeseed imports [11]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected arrival of Canadian rapeseed imports [11]. 4. Fundamental Data - Trading data: From March 19th to March 27th, the average transaction price of soybean meal decreased from 3406 to 3292, and the trading volume fluctuated. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal decreased from 2460 to 2340, and the trading volume was relatively small [12]. - Price data: From March 20th to March 27th, the price of rapeseed meal futures (main contract 2605) decreased from 2423 to 2315, and the spot price decreased from 2440 to 2340 [14]. - Warehouse receipt data: The rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 286 on March 19th to 0 on March 20th and remained at 0 thereafter [15]. - Supply - demand balance sheet: In the domestic rapeseed supply - demand balance sheet, the harvest area, production, and inventory have changed over the years from 2016 - 2025. In the domestic rapeseed meal supply - demand balance sheet, the production, demand, and inventory also show different trends during the same period [17][19]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the given content