大越期货中东局势扑朔迷离，豆粕弱势震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soybean market is affected by multiple factors such as the implementation of the China - US trade agreement, South American soybean harvest weather, and the situation in the Middle East. The market is in a state of shock and waiting for further guidance [10][11][13]. - In the short term, the domestic soybean and soybean meal futures markets are expected to maintain a range - bound pattern, and the specific trading strategies are provided [16][17]. - The pig farming industry is currently facing a situation of increasing losses, and the demand for soybean meal is relatively weak in the short term [54][58]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Tips No relevant content provided. 3.2 Recent News - The preliminary agreement on China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of China's soybean purchases and US soybean weather are still uncertain. The US soybean market is in a short - term strong shock [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China decreased in the first quarter, and the soybean inventory of oil mills remained at a relatively high level in March. The soybean meal market has returned to a range - bound pattern [13]. - The decrease in domestic pig farming profits has led to low expectations for pig replenishment, and the demand for soybean meal in March has remained low, suppressing the price expectations of soybean meal [13]. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remains at a relatively high level. Due to the possibility of weather speculation in South American soybean producing areas and the impact of the preliminary China - US trade agreement, the soybean meal market is short - term shock - strong, waiting for the further clarification of the Middle East situation, the determination of South American soybean production, and the further guidance of the follow - up China - US trade negotiations [13]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: The preliminary China - US trade agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans; the soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills has no pressure; there are still variables in the weather of South American soybean producing areas [14]. - Bearish factors: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remained at a relatively high level in March; the harvest of Brazilian soybeans is advancing, and South American soybeans are expected to be in a bumper harvest under normal weather conditions [14]. - Soybeans - Bullish factors: The increase in the cost of imported soybeans supports the domestic soybean market; the expected increase in the demand for domestic soybeans supports the price expectations of domestic soybeans [15]. - Bearish factors: The preliminary China - US trade agreement leads to an increase in China's purchases of US soybeans; the expected increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectations of soybeans [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: From 2016 to 2025, the harvest area, production, and total supply of global soybeans generally showed an upward trend, while the inventory - to - consumption ratio fluctuated [19]. - USDA's Monthly Supply - Demand Reports in the Past Six Months: The planting area, yield, production, and other indicators of US soybeans have changed slightly in different months, and the production of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans is also provided [20]. - US Soybean Planting and Growth Progress in 2024: The sowing, emergence, flowering, pod - setting, and other progress of US soybeans in 2024 are compared with those of the same period last year and the five - year average [21][22][23]. - Brazilian and Argentine Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress: The planting and harvest progress of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans in different years are presented, showing the comparison with the same period last year and the five - year average [24][25][26][27][28]. 3.5 Position Data No relevant content provided. 3.6 Soybean and Soybean Meal Fundamentals (Supply - Demand Inventory Structure) - US Soybean Market Situation: The US soybean market is short - term strong - shock, affected by China's purchases and bio - fuel policies, but the good harvest expectations of South American soybeans suppress the upside of the market. The short - and medium - term trends are mainly driven by the harvest weather and listing situation of South American soybeans and the implementation of the China - US trade agreement [32]. - Domestic Soybean Meal Industry Chain: - Imported Soybean Arrival: The arrival volume of imported soybeans has rebounded from a low level and increased year - on - year [35]. - Oil Mill Pressing and Inventory: The soybean inventory of oil mills has decreased slightly, and the soybean meal inventory has returned to a normal level. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills remains at a relatively high level, and the soybean meal production in February decreased slightly year - on - year [38][40]. - Soybean Meal Transaction: The downstream procurement has become lighter, and the提货 volume is at a high level in the same period of history [46]. - Pig Farming Inventory: The pig inventory has increased slightly year - on - year, the sow inventory has decreased year - on - year and decreased slightly month - on - month. The pig price has continued to fall recently, and the average slaughter weight has decreased slightly. The proportion of large pigs has decreased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs has fluctuated slightly. The pig farming profit has expanded losses, and the pig - grain ratio and feed - to - meat ratio have fallen to a low level [48][50][52][54][56]. 3.7粕类市场结构 - Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Basis Analysis: The soybean meal futures have fallen in shock, the spot is relatively weak, and the premium of the spot at a high level has narrowed [61]. - Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Price Difference: The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuates slightly, and the price difference between the 2605 contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal is at a relatively high level [63]. 3.8 Technical Analysis - Soybean Technical Analysis: The soybean futures have fallen in shock, affected by the interaction between the US soybean trend and the relatively strong domestic soybean spot. The KDJ and MACD indicators are in a technical adjustment stage, and the soybean futures are expected to return to a range - bound pattern and wait for new guidance [68]. - Soybean Meal Technical Analysis: The soybean meal futures have fallen in shock, affected by the US soybean trend and the short - term weakening of domestic demand. The KDJ and MACD indicators are in a technical adjustment stage, and the soybean meal futures are expected to return to a range - bound pattern and wait for new guidance [71]. 3.9 Next Week's Concerns - Most Important: The harvest weather and export situation of South American soybean producing areas, the implementation of the China - US trade agreement, the arrival of imported soybeans in China and the operation of oil mills [73]. - Second - Important: The domestic demand for soybean meal, the inventory of domestic oil mills and the downstream procurement situation [73]. - Third - Important: Macroeconomic factors and the conflicts between the US and Iran, Russia and Ukraine [73].