Report Information - Report Title: Photovoltaic Industry Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: March 29, 2026 [1] - Author: Chen Naixuan (Z0023138) [2] - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - For industrial silicon, the pattern of stable supply and weak demand continues. Cost support, high inventory, and weak demand are in a state of balance, and prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [3]. - For polysilicon, high inventory and weak demand dominate the market. Prices are in a weak bottom - seeking stage and are expected to continue the downward trend in the short term [4]. Summary by Category Industrial Silicon - Fundamentals - In the southwest region, due to high electricity prices during the dry season, production has further declined, with only 2 enterprises in Yunnan and 1 in Sichuan in production. Northern supply has changed little, and overall production is stable [3]. - The prices of raw materials such as electricity and silicon coal are generally stable. The Middle East geopolitical conflict has pushed up oil prices, driving up the price of petroleum coke and supporting costs [3]. - Downstream polysilicon and organic silicon procurement is mainly for small orders based on rigid demand, and the willingness to stock up is low. Organic silicon may have further production cut plans next month [3]. - The total industry inventory remains at a high level, mostly concentrated in northern social warehouses. The inventory of futures warehouse receipts has also increased marginally [3]. - Futures Data - The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract is 8,625 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.58%. The trading volume is 165,844 lots, a weekly decrease of 25.10%. The open interest is 223,220 lots, a weekly decrease of 3.32% [5]. - The closing price of the industrial silicon weighted index contract is 8,654 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.76%. The trading volume is 216,790 lots, a weekly decrease of 22.62%. The open interest is 368,620 lots, a weekly increase of 2.90% [5]. - The number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts is 22,277 lots, a weekly increase of 2.81% [5]. Polysilicon - Fundamentals - The production cost of some enterprises has fallen below the full - cost line, and the loss - making area of the industry continues to expand. The cost side provides rigid support for the further decline of prices [4]. - The overall industry operating rate remains at a low level of about 30%. Although leading enterprises are trying to maintain market share by lowering prices, continuous losses may accelerate the clearance of production capacity, providing potential support for the market [4]. - The industry's social inventory is at a historical high and continues to accumulate, and the inflection point of inventory reduction has not yet appeared. The huge inventory pressure is the core factor suppressing prices [4]. - The procurement willingness of the entire downstream industry chain is low, only maintaining rigid - demand restocking. The market has fallen into a negative cycle of "the lower the price, the less people buy", and the pattern of weak domestic and foreign demand continues [4]. - Futures Data - The closing price of the polysilicon main contract is 35,680 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.39% and a weekly decrease of 5.52%. The trading volume is 14,551 lots, a daily increase of 70.61% and a weekly increase of 69.39%. The open interest is 34,180 lots, a daily increase of 2.18% and a weekly increase of 2.58% [6]. - The closing price of the polysilicon weighted index is 36,157 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.13% and a weekly decrease of 5.69%. The trading volume is 17,481 lots, a daily increase of 74.08% and a weekly increase of 70.65%. The open interest is 52,531 lots, a daily increase of 2.03% and a weekly increase of 2.49% [6]. - The number of polysilicon futures warehouse receipts is 10,030 lots, a weekly increase of 2.24% [6]. Photovoltaic Industry Chain - Production - Upstream - Industrial Silicon: The report shows the weekly production of industrial silicon in Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang, with data sources from Wind [9][11]. - Mid - stream - Polysilicon: The report presents the weekly production of polysilicon in China and the monthly production of overseas polysilicon, as well as the net export volume of Chinese polysilicon, with data sources from Wind [13][15]. - Downstream - Silicon Wafers: The report shows the weekly production seasonality, monthly operating rate seasonality, and monthly net export volume of single - crystal and poly - crystal silicon wafers in China, with data sources from Wind [17][18]. - Downstream - Battery Cells: The report presents the monthly production seasonality, monthly operating rate seasonality of different types of battery cells (Topcon, BC, HJT), and monthly export volume of Chinese photovoltaic battery cells, with data sources from Wind [20][22][23]. - Terminal - Photovoltaic Modules: The report shows the monthly production seasonality, new installed capacity seasonality, and monthly net export volume seasonality of Chinese photovoltaic modules, with data sources from Wind [25][27]. - Inventory - The report shows the weekly social inventory seasonality and warehouse receipt quantity seasonality of industrial silicon, the weekly total inventory of Chinese polysilicon, the inventory - warehouse receipt of polysilicon, the weekly inventory seasonality of silicon wafers, the weekly inventory total seasonality of Chinese photovoltaic battery export factories, and the weekly finished - product inventory of Chinese photovoltaic modules, with data sources from Wind [28][29][30][31][33]. - Profit - The report presents the profit of industrial silicon, the weekly profit of polysilicon, the profit trend chart of Chinese silicon wafers, and the seasonal profit of Chinese single - crystal N - type battery cell processes, with data sources from Wind [34][35][36][37].
光伏产业周报-20260330
Dong Ya Qi Huo·2026-03-30 07:08