大越期货甲醇周报-20260330

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical conflicts will determine the market fluctuation direction. In the short - term, the supply - demand fundamentals are good, and the local methanol price has strong resilience. Inland, cost transmission is smooth, downstream开工 enthusiasm has increased, especially the olefin's consumption of methanol has increased significantly, and the upstream methanol factories are continuously destocking. The supply - demand fundamentals support the bottom of inland methanol. However, geopolitical conflicts are the decisive factor for future market trends. If the Middle East war continues, methanol futures and spot prices will remain strong; if the war situation eases, there may be a phased correction, but the correction amplitude may be limited due to the tight supply - demand balance and increased olefin demand. In ports, imports are decreasing, exports to Southeast Asia are surging, the main olefin plants in ports are starting up, demand is rising rapidly, and port inventories are continuously decreasing. The port market is expected to continue to be strong next week. Attention should be paid to the resonance of the chemical sector and the progress of the US - Iran conflict [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Review - Geopolitical conflicts determine market trends. Inland and port methanol markets have different characteristics. Inland has cost - demand support, and ports have multiple favorable factors such as reduced imports and increased demand [5]. 3.2 Fundamental Data 3.2.1 Domestic Methanol Spot Price - From March 20th to March 27th, prices in different regions changed. For example, in Jiangsu, the price increased from 3050 yuan/ton to 3360 yuan/ton, a 10.16% increase; in Hebei, it increased from 2440 yuan/ton to 2725 yuan/ton, an 11.68% increase [6]. 3.2.2 Methanol Futures and Basis - From March 20th to March 27th, the futures price increased from 3132 yuan/ton to 3296 yuan/ton, a 5.24% increase. The basis changed from - 82 yuan/ton to 146 yuan/ton [8]. 3.2.3 Methanol Production Profits by Different Processes - Coal - based production profit increased from 455 yuan/ton to 531 yuan/ton; natural gas - based production profit remained at - 40 yuan/ton; coke oven gas - based production profit increased from 601 yuan/ton to 819 yuan/ton [10]. 3.2.4 Domestic Methanol Enterprise Load - Nationally, the load decreased from 78.71% to 74.90%, a 3.81% decrease; in the northwest, it decreased from 85.09% to 81.54%, a 3.55% decrease [12]. 3.2.5 Outer - market Methanol Price and Spread - CFR China increased from 382 US dollars/ton to 414 US dollars/ton, an 8.38% increase; CFR Southeast Asia increased from 556.5 US dollars/ton to 655 US dollars/ton, a 17.70% increase. The spread between them changed from - 174.5 US dollars/ton to - 241 US dollars/ton [15]. 3.2.6 Methanol Import Spread - The import cost increased from 3219 yuan/ton to 3492 yuan/ton, an 8.49% increase. The import spread changed from - 169 yuan/ton to - 132 yuan/ton [18]. 3.2.7 Methanol Traditional Downstream Product Prices - Formaldehyde price remained at 1070 yuan/ton; dimethyl ether price remained at 3850 yuan/ton; acetic acid price increased from 3300 yuan/ton to 4000 yuan/ton, a 21.21% increase [24]. 3.2.8 Production Profits and Loads of Traditional Downstream Products - Formaldehyde: The production profit decreased from - 276 yuan/ton to - 403 yuan/ton, and the load increased slightly from 30.97% to 30.98%. - Dimethyl ether: The production profit decreased from 85 yuan/ton to - 320 yuan/ton, and the load increased from 8.34% to 9.79%. - Acetic acid: The production profit increased from 423 yuan/ton to 952 yuan/ton, and the load decreased from 73.61% to 72.32% [25][27][32]. 3.2.9 MTO Production Profit and Load - The MTO production profit decreased from - 3760 yuan/ton to - 4752 yuan/ton, and the load decreased from 86.45% to 84.18% [36]. 3.2.10 Methanol Port Inventory - In the East China port, the inventory decreased from 51.07 to 47.27; in the South China port, it decreased from 31.6 to 28.3 [37]. 3.2.11 Methanol Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts - Warehouse receipts increased from 7641 to 7835, a 2.54% increase; effective forecasts remained at 147, a 0.00% change [41]. 3.3 Maintenance Status 3.3.1 Domestic Methanol Device Maintenance - Many domestic methanol enterprises are in maintenance, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, etc. Different enterprises have different maintenance start and end times, and the weekly maintenance losses vary [43]. 3.3.2 Overseas Methanol Device Operation - Overseas methanol devices in different countries have different operation statuses. For example, some Iranian devices are in the process of restarting, and some Saudi and Malaysian devices are operating normally [44]. 3.3.3 Olefin Device Operation - Different olefin enterprises in different regions have different operation statuses. Some are in normal operation, some are in maintenance, and some are in the process of starting up or restarting [45].