大越期货甲醇早报-20260330

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - The direction of market fluctuations will be determined by changes in geopolitical conflicts. In the short term, with a favorable supply - demand fundamental, the local methanol price shows strong resilience. For the inland market, cost transmission is smooth, downstream开工 enthusiasm has increased, especially the consumption of raw material methanol by olefins has significantly increased, upstream methanol plants are continuously reducing inventory, and port inventory reduction is accelerating. The supply - demand fundamentals support the bottom of inland methanol. However, geopolitical conflicts are the decisive factor for future market trends. If the Middle East war continues, methanol futures and spot prices will remain strong; if the war situation eases, there may be a phased correction. The correction amplitude may be limited due to the tight supply - demand balance and increased olefin demand in the inland area. For the port market, imports are continuously decreasing, exports to Southeast Asia are surging, the main olefin plants at the port are starting up, demand is rapidly increasing, and port inventory is continuously decreasing. Multiple positive fundamentals support the port market, which is expected to continue to be strong this week. Future attention should be paid to the resonance of the chemical sector and the progress of the US - Iran conflict. It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate strongly this week, with MA2605 oscillating between 3220 - 3450 yuan/ton [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - The fundamental situation of methanol 2605: The geopolitical conflict determines the market trend. In the short term, the supply - demand fundamentals are good, and the local methanol price is resilient. Inland cost transmission is smooth, downstream开工 is high, and inventory is decreasing. The port market has multiple positive factors such as reduced imports, increased exports, and starting olefin plants. The price is expected to be strong this week. The expected price range of MA2605 is 3220 - 3450 yuan/ton. The basis shows that the spot price is higher than the futures price. As of March 26, 2026, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports decreased by 7.05 tons, and the available circulating supply in coastal areas decreased by 2.21 tons. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is above the average. The main positions are net long and increasing [5]. 2. Long - Short Concerns - Likely to be bullish: Some plants have stopped or reduced production, such as Inner Mongolia Heima and Shanxi Zhongxin; the methanol production in Iran is at a low level, and imports in February are expected to continue to shrink; the inventory of methanol plants in the production area is low, and some enterprises even limit sales; some downstream users continue to stock up before the Spring Festival [6]. - Likely to be bearish: The domestic methanol production is at a high level, and there is no shortage of supply; as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream industries such as formaldehyde are gradually shutting down for holidays, and the demand for raw materials is weakening; the main olefin plants at the port are shut down, and local demand is significantly weakened; most downstream users have completed pre - holiday stocking, and the phased demand is decreasing [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - Price data: In the spot market, the price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim is 688 yuan/ton, the price of methanol in Jiangsu is 3360 yuan/ton, CFR China Main Port is 414 US dollars/ton, the import cost is 3492 yuan/ton, CFR Southeast Asia is 655 US dollars/ton, etc. In the futures market, the closing price of the main contract is 3296 yuan/ton, the number of registered warrants is 7835, and the effective forecast is 147. The basis is 64 yuan/ton, and the import price difference is 196 yuan/ton. The price differences between different regions and markets are also provided [8]. - Price trends: The weekly increase in the spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 10.16%, in Hebei is 11.68%, in Inner Mongolia is 7.34%, and in Fujian is 11.00%. The weekly increase in the futures price is 5.24%. The basis has increased by 146 yuan/ton [9][11]. - Profit data: The weekly profit of coal - based methanol production is 75 yuan/ton, the profit of natural gas - based methanol production remains at - 40 yuan/ton, and the profit of coke oven gas - based methanol production is 602 yuan/ton [20]. - Load data: The national weighted average methanol load is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from last week; the load in the northwest region is 81.54%, a decrease of 3.55% from last week [22]. - External market data: The weekly increase in CFR China is 8.38%, in CFR Southeast Asia is 17.70%, and the price difference between China and Southeast Asia has decreased by 66.5 US dollars/ton [25]. - Import price difference data: The weekly increase in the spot price is 10.16%, the import cost has increased by 8.49%, and the import price difference has increased by 37 yuan/ton [29]. - Downstream product data: The price of formaldehyde remains unchanged, the price of dimethyl ether remains unchanged, and the price of acetic acid has increased by 21.21%. The production profit of formaldehyde is - 403 yuan/ton, the production profit of dimethyl ether is - 320 yuan/ton, and the production profit of acetic acid is 952 yuan/ton. The production profit of MTO is - 4752 yuan/ton [32][37][40][45][50]. - Inventory data: The inventory in East China ports is 47.27 tons, a decrease of 3.80 tons from last week; the inventory in South China ports is 28.3 tons, a decrease of 3.30 tons from last week [52]. - Warrant data: The number of warrants has increased by 2.54% to 7835, and the effective forecast remains at 147 [57]. - Balance sheet data: The report provides the methanol balance sheet from November 2022 to October 2024, including production, demand, net imports, inventory, and supply - demand differences [59]. 4. Maintenance Status - Domestic plant maintenance: Multiple domestic methanol plants are in maintenance, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, etc. The maintenance time and loss vary by plant [60]. - Overseas plant operation: The operation status of overseas methanol plants varies. Some plants in Iran are in the process of restarting or operating at a low level, and plants in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States are generally operating normally [61]. - Olefin plant operation: The operation status of olefin plants also varies. Some plants are in normal operation, some are in maintenance, and some have plans for future maintenance or production [62].