沪铜产业日报-20260330

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The main contract of Shanghai copper shows a volatile trend, with a decrease in open interest, a spot discount, and a strengthening basis. The raw material side of the fundamentals shows that the spot index of copper concentrate TC continues to hit new lows, and the expectation of tightening global copper mine supply is gradually strengthening, providing a relatively solid cost support for copper prices. On the supply side, the capacity utilization rate of copper smelters is gradually recovering, but the pressure of global raw material supply and the rapid decline of domestic copper concentrate port inventories in the first quarter may limit the growth rate of domestic production to some extent. On the demand side, as the peak season of "Golden March and Silver April" deepens and copper prices decline due to geopolitical conflicts, the production enthusiasm of domestic downstream copper processing enterprises is boosted, and they replenish inventory at low prices. In terms of inventory, the inflection point of social inventory depletion is confirmed, and industry demand is gradually improving. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage of slight increase in supply and boosted demand. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD has both lines above the 0 - axis, and the green bars are converging. The suggestion is to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 95,760 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 12,228 US dollars/ton, up 87 US dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is 30 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 185,270 lots, down 2,125 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 55,138 lots, up 900 lots; the LME copper inventory is 360,250 tons, up 425 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 359,135 tons, down 51,986 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 62,675 tons, up 9,975 tons. The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 230,971 tons, down 2,856 tons; the COMEX copper inventory is 588,919 short tons, down 796 short tons [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 copper is 95,195 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan; the spot price of 1 copper in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 95,315 yuan/ton, down 340 yuan. The CIF Shanghai (pyrometallurgical, ER) price for bonded warehouses is 68.5 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 66 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is - 565 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 70.86 US dollars/ton, down 0.65 US dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 231.03 million tons, up 231.03 million tons; the rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 68.85 US dollars per thousand tons, down 1.53 US dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 85,590 yuan per metal ton, down 330 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 86,290 yuan per metal ton, down 330 yuan. The processing fee for blister copper in the south is 1,100 yuan/ton, down 700 yuan; the processing fee for blister copper in the north is 700 yuan/ton, down 700 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 132.60 million tons, up 9.00 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 320,000 tons, down 60,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons; the price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 63,090 yuan/ton, unchanged. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 1,250 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 78,400 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 222.90 million tons, up 0.30 million tons; the cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 837.53 billion yuan, up 79.84 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 9,612.11 billion yuan, down 11.10 billion yuan; the monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,807,345.50 thousand pieces, up 415,345.50 thousand pieces [2]. Industry News - US President Trump claims that the US has control of the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran is "extremely" eager to reach an agreement. US Vice - President Vance says the US has no intention of staying in Iran and will withdraw soon after handling current affairs. Vance believes the US has achieved all military goals, and the military operation has not ended because President Trump wants to ensure Iran completely loses the ability to threaten the US [2]. - According to Cui Dongshu of the Passenger Car Association, the global automobile sales volume in 2025 was 96.89 million units, a year - on - year increase of 6%. The world automobile sales volume in February 2026 reached 6.74 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 2%. The world automobile sales volume from January to February 2026 reached 13.96 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. Due to the lower - than - expected growth rate of the Chinese auto market, the growth of the world auto market sales volume slowed down significantly from January to February 2026. The Chinese auto market has generally performed well in recent years, and its share has continued to increase. From 2020 to 2023, China's share in the world market increased to 33.8%, in 2024 it reached 34.2%, in 2025 it reached 35.4%, and in 2026 it reached 29.7%, a significant decline compared with 2025. The overseas environment for self - owned brands going global is good, with many countries in a period of low penetration rate and large market space. The speed determines the effect. From January to February 2026, the global automobile sales volume increased by 0.1%, among which the Chinese automobile sales volume decreased by 9%, the Indian automobile market sales volume increased by 11%, the Thai automobile market increased by 64%, the Russian market sales volume decreased by 7%, and some South American markets performed well. The potential of Chinese car companies in many other underdeveloped small countries is still huge [2]. - The China Association for Quality and Safety Promotion of Consumer Goods launched the "2026 Series of Actions to Improve the Quality and Safety of Online - sold Products", aiming to guide the industry out of "involution - style" competition and better protect the quality of online - sold products and the legitimate rights and interests of consumers. After selection, a total of 11 major categories and 41 types of products were determined for monitoring, including household appliances, electronic appliances, electric bicycles, lithium batteries, etc. [2]. - The European Federation for Transport and Environment released a report stating that affected by the military conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, the fuel cost of the global shipping industry has risen significantly, which not only increases the industry's operating pressure but also provides an opportunity to accelerate energy transformation. The report shows that since February 28, the cumulative additional fuel cost of the global shipping industry has exceeded 4.6 billion euros [2].