瑞达期货铝类产业日报-20260330

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Alumina: The fundamentals may be in a state of increasing supply and demand. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a volatile manner, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - Electrolytic aluminum: The fundamentals may be in a stage of stable supply and warming demand. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a volatile manner, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - Cast aluminum alloy: The fundamentals may be in a stage of a slight increase in supply and a recovery in demand. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a volatile manner, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai aluminum contract is 24,725 yuan/ton, up 790 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract spread is - 155 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the main contract position is 263,928 lots, up 6,833 lots [2] - The closing price of the main alumina futures contract is 2,941 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract spread is - 41 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; the main contract position is 202,711 lots, down 6,100 lots [2] - LME aluminum cancelled warrants are 148,050 tons, down 2,200 tons; LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation is 3,284.5 US dollars/ton, up 30 US dollars; LME aluminum inventory is 420,875 tons, down 2,200 tons [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum is - 39,554 lots, up 3,658 lots; the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.53, up 0.17 [2] - The closing price of the main cast aluminum alloy contract is 23,630 yuan/ton, up 670 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract spread is - 45 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the main contract position is 8,987 lots, down 1,664 lots [2] - The registered warehouse receipts of cast aluminum alloy on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 35,207 tons, down 1,477 tons; the inventory of Shanghai aluminum on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 454,571 tons, up 2,527 tons [2] - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai aluminum on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 412,452 tons, up 4,255 tons [2] Spot Market - The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum is 24,700 yuan/ton, up 720 yuan; the average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots in the country is 24,530 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous market AOO aluminum is 23,870 yuan/ton, up 680 yuan [2] - The basis of cast aluminum alloy is 1,070 yuan/ton, down 370 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum is - 195 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan [2] - The Shanghai Material Trade aluminum premium/discount is - 100 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the LME aluminum premium/discount is 61.23 US dollars/ton, up 2.33 US dollars [2] - The basis of alumina is - 171 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The pre - baked anode in the northwest region is 5,770 yuan/ton, unchanged; the alumina output is 801.08 tons, down 12.72 tons; the national alumina start - up rate is 82.10%, down 0.39%; the alumina capacity utilization rate is 83.00%, down 1.00% [2] - The demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) is 731.29 tons, up 25.33 tons; the supply - demand balance of alumina is 28.90 tons, up 2.32 tons [2] - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal waste is 19,150 yuan/ton, up 550 yuan; the average price of crushed raw aluminum in Shandong metal waste is 18,300 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan [2] - China's import volume of aluminum waste and scrap is 136,323.65 tons, down 56,401.89 tons; the export volume is 55.23 tons, up 33.81 tons [2] - The export volume of alumina is 15.00 tons, down 4.00 tons; the import volume is 18.10 tons, down 7.94 tons [2] - The WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance is 21.82 tons, up 1.33 tons; the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum is 129.40 tons, down 0.70 tons [2] Industry Situation - The import volume of primary aluminum is 201,491.17 tons, up 12,566.45 tons; the export volume is 10,039.89 tons, down 3,249.90 tons [2] - The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 4,540.20 tons, unchanged; the start - up rate of electrolytic aluminum is 98.93%, up 0.04% [2] - The output of aluminum products is 613.56 tons, up 20.46 tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products is 43.00 tons, down 11.00 tons [2] - The output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 27.08 tons, down 39.41 tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy is 1.33 tons, down 1.09 tons [2] Downstream and Application - The built - up production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 126.00 tons, unchanged; the national real estate climate index is 91.45, down 0.44 [2] - The output of aluminum alloy is 182.50 tons, unchanged; the automobile output is 341.15 tons, down 10.75 tons [2] Industry News - US President Trump claims to control the Strait of Hormuz, and the US vice - president says the US will withdraw after handling current affairs [2] - In 2025, global auto sales were 96.89 million units, a 6% year - on - year increase. In February 2026, global auto sales were 6.74 million units, a 2% year - on - year decrease. From January to February 2026, global auto sales were 13.96 million units, a 0.1% year - on - year increase. China's auto market share declined in 2026 [2] - The China Consumer Product Quality and Safety Promotion Association launched the "Online Product Quality and Safety Improvement Series Campaign 2026" [2] - The European Federation for Transport and Environment reports that the global shipping industry's fuel costs have soared due to the US - Israel - Iran conflict [2] - The largest metal production facility of Emirates Global Aluminium was "severely damaged" in the Iranian missile and drone attacks [2]