瑞达期货合成橡胶产业日报-20260330

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The production profit of cis - butadiene rubber has significantly deepened losses, leading some plants to reduce production or shut down, and the Zhejiang Transfar cis - butadiene plant is undergoing rotational inspections, resulting in a decline in supply. The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber production enterprises decreased significantly last week, and it is expected to continue to decline. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuated slightly last week. Towards the end of the quarter, some enterprises are striving to meet quarterly targets, which supports the overall capacity utilization rate, but individual enterprises may have short - term maintenance plans at the end of March or early April, slightly dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. Due to the uncertainty of the US - Iran geopolitical conflict, the short - term synthetic rubber futures price is expected to fluctuate sharply, and it is recommended to wait and see, while paying attention to changes in the geopolitical situation [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 17,725 yuan/ton, a decrease of 115 yuan/ton; the trading volume of the main contract is 87,205 lots, a decrease of 14,951 lots; the 5 - 6 spread of synthetic rubber is 100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan/ton; the total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber in the warehouse is 25,010 tons, a decrease of 570 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Qilu Petrochemical) in Shandong is 18,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shanghai is 18,050 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shandong is 18,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Maoming Petrochemical) in Guangdong is 18,050 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is 560 yuan/ton. Brent crude oil is 112.57 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 4.56 US dollars/barrel; naphtha CFR Japan is 1,143 US dollars/ton, an increase of 41.5 US dollars/ton; Northeast Asian ethylene price is 1,400 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 2,580 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 20 US dollars/ton; WTI crude oil is 99.64 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 5.16 US dollars/barrel; the market price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 18,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 159,300 tons, a decrease of 100 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 67.99%, a decrease of 1.72 percentage points; the port inventory of butadiene is 23,000 tons, a decrease of 4,600 tons; the daily operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 53.79%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points; the monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 140,400 tons, a decrease of 9,500 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber is 53.19%, a decrease of 12.39 percentage points; the weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 3,349 yuan/ton, a decrease of 849 yuan/ton; the weekly social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 41,500 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons; the weekly manufacturer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 32,250 tons, a decrease of 1,750 tons; the weekly trader inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 9,260 tons, an increase of 650 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 8.13 million pieces, a decrease of 4.58 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 34.61 million pieces, a decrease of 25.07 million pieces; the inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong is 38.97 days, a decrease of 2.12 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong is 43.72 days, a decrease of 0.87 days. As of March 26, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 79.37%, a month - on - month increase of 0.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.18 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 72.24%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.88 percentage points [2] 3.5 Industry News - The capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises fluctuates slightly. Entering the end of the quarter, some enterprises are striving to meet quarterly targets, which supports the overall capacity utilization rate. In February 2026, the heavy - truck market in China sold about 75,000 vehicles, a decrease of nearly 30% compared with January 2025 and a decrease of about 8% compared with 81,400 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. The decline in the heavy - truck industry in February 2026 is mainly due to seasonal fluctuations during the Spring Festival. As of March 25, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises is 41,500 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.58% [2]