《黑色》日报-20260330

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Steel Industry - Steel prices have declined from their highs. After the holiday, the supply - demand situation in the steel industry has seasonally recovered. Supply in the first quarter decreased year - on - year, and production is expected to rise to a high by the end of April. Demand is rising but the peak has not been reached. Domestic demand is expected to decline year - on - year, and exports will remain flat. Although demand has decreased, production has also been cut, and the inventory drawdown rate after the holiday is acceptable. The key is to focus on the height of the recovery in apparent demand. If the hot metal output rises above 2.4 million tons, there may be inventory accumulation pressure in the off - season. Recently, supply and demand are basically balanced, and the price of steel is expected to fluctuate around 3150 for rebar and 3200 for hot - rolled coils [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Geopolitical games, the undetermined BHP - CMMC negotiation, and hot metal复产 are the key trading factors for iron ore. Supply has increased slightly, but Australian shipments may decline in the short term due to a typhoon. Demand has increased slightly, but it is slightly lower than expected. Steel mill profitability has improved. Terminal demand recovery is slow, and domestic demand is weak. Steel exports are uncertain. Inventories at steel mills and ports have decreased slightly. In the short term, the main iron ore contract is expected to oscillate between 780 - 830 [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Coke futures rose and then fell last week. Spot prices are expected to increase on April 1st. Supply has increased after the Two Sessions, and demand has recovered with the increase in hot metal output. Overall inventory is slightly above the middle level, and supply and demand are basically balanced in the short term. It is recommended to go long on coke 2605 contracts at low prices, with a reference range of 1650 - 1850, and the arbitrage strategy is to go long on coking coal and short on coke. Coking coal futures rose last week. Spot prices are rising. Supply has increased as mines resume production, and demand has recovered. Inventories in downstream sectors are increasing. It is recommended to go long on coking coal 2605 contracts at low prices, with a reference range of 1150 - 1350, and the arbitrage strategy is also to go long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese Industry - For ferrosilicon, production has decreased slightly, and the start - up rate has declined. Factory profits are recovering but vary. Steel demand is rising slightly, and non - steel demand is improving. Exports are weak. Cost is expected to rise. The price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to operate within the range of 5800 - 6200. For silicomanganese, supply has continued to decline, and there is an expected joint production cut in April. Demand is rising slightly. Cost is pushing up the price. The price is expected to oscillate strongly, with a reference range of 5700 - 6800 [7]. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices in different regions have shown various changes, with some prices remaining stable, some decreasing slightly [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices have decreased by 20 yuan/ton, and some production costs have decreased. Profits in different regions and varieties have also changed, with some increasing and some still in the red [1]. Supply - Daily hot metal output has increased by 7.0 to 228.2 tons, a 3.1% increase. Total output of five major steel products has decreased slightly by 0.2 to 839.6 tons, a 0.0% change. Rebar production has decreased by 5.5 to 197.9 tons, a 2.7% decrease, while hot - rolled coil production has increased by 5.4 to 305.6 tons, a 1.8% increase [1]. Inventory - Total inventory of five major steel products has decreased by 48.4 to 1897.8 tons, a 2.5% decrease. Rebar inventory has decreased by 27.5 to 861.9 tons, a 3.1% decrease, and hot - rolled coil inventory has decreased by 8.0 to 453.3 tons, a 1.7% decrease [1]. Transaction and Demand - Building material trading volume has increased by 0.5 to 9.4 tons, a 5.9% increase. Apparent demand for five major steel products has increased by 19.5 to 888.0 tons, a 2.2% increase. Apparent demand for rebar has increased by 17.3 to 225.4 tons, an 8.3% increase, and for hot - rolled coil, it has increased by 3.1 to 313.6 tons, a 1.0% increase [1]. Iron Ore Industry Futures - Warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders have decreased, and basis and spreads have also changed [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - Spot prices of iron ore at Rizhao Port have decreased slightly [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume has increased by 56.6 to 2271.6 tons, a 2.6% increase. Global shipments have increased by 95.5 to 3144.3 tons, a 3.1% increase. Monthly national imports have decreased by 2200.9 to 9763.8 tons, an 18.4% decrease [4]. Demand - The average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills has increased by 2.9 to 231.1 tons, a 1.3% increase. The 45 - port average daily dispatch volume has decreased by 7.8 to 313.2 tons, a 2.4% decrease. Monthly national pig iron and crude steel production have both decreased to 0 [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory has decreased by 98.1 to 17000.31 tons, a 0.6% decrease. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills has decreased by 55.5 to 8978.6 tons, a 0.6% decrease [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - Coke and coking coal futures and spot prices have shown various changes, with some prices remaining stable and some decreasing slightly. Coking coal prices in some regions have decreased [6]. Supply - Coke production has increased slightly, and coking coal production has decreased slightly [6]. Demand - Hot metal output has increased by 2.9 to 231.1 tons, a 1.3% increase, driving the demand for coke [6]. Inventory - Coke inventory has increased slightly, with different changes in different sectors. Coking coal inventory in downstream sectors has increased [6]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese Industry Futures and Spot - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese futures prices have increased, while some spot prices have decreased [7]. Cost and Profit - Production costs in some regions have changed, and production profits have also shown different trends [7]. Supply - Ferrosilicon production and start - up rate have decreased, and silicomanganese supply has continued to decline [7]. Demand - Steel demand is rising slightly, and non - steel demand for ferrosilicon is improving [7]. Inventory - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese inventories have decreased slightly [7].