瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20260330

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The RU2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,150 - 16,880 in the short - term, and the NR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,600 - 14,100 in the short - term [2] - The overall inventory in Qingdao Port has slightly increased, with the bonded warehouse showing de - stocking and the general trade warehouse continuing to accumulate inventory. The rubber price fluctuates unsteadily, and downstream tire factories replenish their stocks of mixed rubber cautiously [2] - The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuates narrowly. Some enterprises strive to meet quarterly tasks, which supports the overall capacity utilization rate, but individual enterprises may have short - term maintenance arrangements at the end of March or early April, slightly dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate [2] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 16,540 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 30 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread is - 25 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 13,845 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 110 yuan/ton; the 5 - 6 spread is - 50 yuan/ton, with an increase of 15 yuan/ton [2] - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 2,695 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 81,467 lots, a decrease of 10,483 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 43,043 lots, a decrease of 4,390 lots [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 27,787 lots, an increase of 3,667 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 9,292 lots, a decrease of 674 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 125,410 tons, unchanged; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber are 43,545 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 16,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L is 16,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton [2] - The price of Thai standard STR20 is 2,020 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 US dollars/ton; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 2,015 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 US dollars/ton [2] - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15,680 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 15,630 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton [2] - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene rubber 1502 is 18,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene rubber BR9000 is 18,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 110 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 830 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton [2] - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,880 yuan/ton, an increase of 29 yuan/ton; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 145 yuan/ton, a decrease of 71 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, an increase of 13.6 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is - 16 US dollars/ton, an increase of 16 US dollars/ton [2] - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 139,600 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 242,400 tons, a decrease of 103,100 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 70.77%, an increase of 0.05 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 78.3%, an increase of 0.05 percentage points [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week are 38.97 days, a decrease of 2.12 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week are 43.72 days, a decrease of 0.87 days [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 8.13 million pieces, a decrease of 4.58 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 34.61 million pieces, a decrease of 25.07 million pieces [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 19.3%, a decrease of 0.13 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 21.89%, a decrease of 1.14 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 29.43%, a decrease of 1.97 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 29.43%, a decrease of 1.98 percentage points [2] Industry News - In February 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a nearly 30% decrease from January 2025 and an about 8% decrease from 81,400 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. The decline in February was mainly due to seasonal fluctuations during the Spring Festival [2] - As of March 29, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 691,400 tons, a 0.85% increase from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 120,100 tons, a 1.62% decrease; the general trade inventory was 571,300 tons, a 1.38% increase [2] - As of March 26, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 79.37%, a 0.05 - percentage - point increase from the previous period and a 1.18 - percentage - point increase year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.24%, a 0.03 - percentage - point increase from the previous period and a 3.88 - percentage - point increase year - on - year [2]