铝产业周报-20260330

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views Aluminum - Supply side: This week, production increased slightly, and supply remained high and stable. Overseas aluminum plants may face certain supply disruptions due to the Middle East war [3]. - Demand side: This week, the output of the aluminum rod and aluminum plate industries also maintained a steady increase. The social inventory of aluminum ingots continued to accumulate. The spill - over of overseas geopolitical risks intensified macro risks and actual supply disruptions. The market is currently showing a volatile and upward trend [3]. -利多 factors: Global supply elasticity is insufficient, and the overall supply is tight; the capacity utilization rate of downstream processing industries is gradually increasing [4]. -利空 factors: The overall profit is still very considerable; high prices suppress transactions, and social inventory accumulates slightly [4][8]. Alumina - Supply: The supply shortage of bauxite has not been alleviated, and enterprises still have maintenance plans, but there is no significant change in alumina supply [4]. - Demand: The demand for electrolytic aluminum remains high, but the loose expectation makes downstream enterprises still resist high - priced goods. In the short term, the spot price continues to rise slightly, and the market price is prone to rise and difficult to fall [4]. -利多 factors: The expected logic of cost increase still exists; downstream demand remains high [9]. -利空 factors: The overall supply is still in surplus; the growth rate of downstream electrolytic aluminum slows down, suppressing the demand for alumina [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Price and Position - The report presents the closing prices and positions of Shanghai Aluminum futures main contracts, LME aluminum (3 - month) futures, and alumina futures main contracts, as well as various price spreads and basis data [6][16] Upstream Supply - Bauxite: It shows the national monthly production, import volume, port inventory, and provincial - level monthly production of Chinese bauxite [23][24] - Alumina: It includes the monthly production, import volume, import profit and loss, provincial - level weekly and national weekly operating rates of alumina [25][30][31] - Electrolytic aluminum: It presents the monthly and weekly production, net import volume, and import profit and loss of Chinese electrolytic aluminum, as well as the monthly production of global electrolytic aluminum [32][34][39] Downstream Demand - Product output: It shows the weekly and monthly output of aluminum rods, profiles, rods, plates, foils, and primary aluminum alloy ingots [40][41][43] - Operating rate: It includes the weekly and monthly operating rates of various downstream industries such as aluminum profiles, plates, foils, and cables [44][46][51] - Export: It presents the monthly export volume and export profit of unforged aluminum and aluminum products [55][56] - Related industries: It shows the data of real estate (housing start - completion area, fixed - asset investment), automobile (automobile and new - energy vehicle production), power grid (power grid project investment, new line length), and photovoltaic (solar power project investment, new photovoltaic installation volume) [60][61][63] Inventory - It includes the monthly inventory of Chinese bauxite in different regions, the in - plant inventory and inventory days of alumina enterprises, the warehouse receipt volume of SHFE alumina, the inventory of LME aluminum, the warehouse receipt quantity of SHFE aluminum, the social inventory and inventory days of Chinese electrolytic aluminum, and the spot inventory of aluminum rods and aluminum ingots + aluminum rods [67][70][74] Cost and Profit - It presents the prices of domestic and imported bauxite, 32% ion - membrane caustic soda, alumina cost, alumina spot price, pre - baked anode price, power coal price, Dutch natural gas TTF, European electricity prices, and the cost and profit of Chinese electrolytic aluminum [76][77][78]