瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20260330

Report Summary - Report Date: March 30, 2026 [2] - Report Type: Methanol Industry Daily Report - Researcher: Lin Jingyi - Futures Trading Qualification Number: F03139610 - Futures Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0021558 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - Recently, the production capacity loss from domestic methanol maintenance and production cuts is less than the output from restored production capacity, leading to an overall increase in production [3] - Last week, inland enterprises reduced their inventory. Sample enterprises in Inner Mongolia and northern Shaanxi had good sales, smoothly executed long - term contracts, and the market rose overall. Downstream buyers were active, causing enterprise inventory to decline [3] - Methanol port inventory continued to decrease. Due to domestic impact and resistance to high prices, import demand weakened significantly, and the volume of incoming foreign vessels remained low. It is expected that port methanol inventory may continue to decline this week, and the extent of inventory reduction depends on the change in提货量 [3] - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants increased month - on - month. Enterprises in inland and port areas raised their loads to varying degrees. As enterprises that recently increased their loads maintain high - level operations, the MTO industry's opening rate is expected to increase to over 90% this week [3] - There is still uncertainty in the geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran. Short - term methanol price fluctuations are expected to remain severe, and it is recommended to wait and see for now, while paying attention to geopolitical changes [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 3319 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 23 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of methanol was 282 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 8 yuan/ton [3] - The open - interest of the main methanol contract was 647,974 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 8,943 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 93 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 21,501 lots [3] - The number of warehouse receipts for methanol was 7,835, unchanged from the previous week [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 3,320 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 70 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia was 2,475 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton [3] - The price difference between East China and Northwest China was 845 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was 24 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 24 yuan/ton [3] - The CFR price at China's main port was 424 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 27 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 655 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 55 US dollars/ton [3] - The FOB price in Rotterdam was 456 euros/ton, a week - on - week increase of 7 euros/ton; the price difference between China's main port and Southeast Asia was - 231 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 28 US dollars/ton [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.08 US dollars/million British thermal units, a week - on - week increase of 0.11 US dollars [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports was 860,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 84,700 tons; the inventory at South China ports was 295,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 21,500 tons [3] - The methanol import profit was - 195.31 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 139.92 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume was 884,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 199,200 tons [3] - The inventory of inland enterprises was 435,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 50,400 tons; the methanol enterprise operating rate was 92.73%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.14 percentage points [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate was 45.61%, a week - on - week increase of 3.18 percentage points; the dimethyl ether operating rate was 5.12%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.37 percentage points [3] - The acetic acid operating rate was 84.6%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.8 percentage points; the MTBE operating rate was 69.89%, a week - on - week increase of 0.38 percentage points [3] - The olefin operating rate was 85.58%, a week - on - week increase of 1.5 percentage points; the methanol - to - olefin on - paper profit was - 1,488 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 113 yuan/ton [3] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 77.15%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.23 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of methanol was 62.29%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.03 percentage points [3] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol was 74.57%, a week - on - week increase of 0.06 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for methanol was 74.58%, a week - on - week increase of 0.06 percentage points [3] 3.7 Industry News - As of March 25, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 435,000 tons, a decrease of 50,400 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 10.39%; the pending orders of sample enterprises were 283,900 tons, an increase of 4,600 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 1.64% [3] - As of March 25, the total methanol port inventory in China was 1.1555 million tons, a decrease of 106,200 tons from the previous data. Among them, inventory in East China decreased by 84,700 tons, and inventory in South China decreased by 21,500 tons. This week, methanol port inventory continued to decrease as expected. During the period, 60,500 tons of foreign vessels were included. Due to domestic impact and resistance to high prices, import demand weakened significantly [3] - As of March 26, the domestic capacity utilization rate of methanol - to - olefin plants was 86.86%, a month - on - month increase of 1.29%. The domestic MTO industry's operating rate increased, and the loads of inland and port enterprises were raised to varying degrees [3] 3.8 Suggested Attention Points - Wednesday's Longzhong enterprise inventory and port inventory [3]