铂钯金期货日报-20260330

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The market volatility may remain at a high level. Due to the volatile situation between the US and Iran, platinum and palladium are currently difficult to break through the strong resistance above. Short - term funds are advised to wait and see, while long - term investors can gradually buy platinum long positions on dips. The London platinum should pay attention to the support level of $1800 per ounce, and the London palladium should focus on the support level of $1300 per ounce [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum main contract was 497.50 yuan/gram, up 12.90 yuan; the closing price of the palladium main contract was 357.30 yuan/gram, up 2.15 yuan. The main contract position of platinum decreased by 277.00 hands, while that of palladium increased by 90.00 hands to 3179.00 hands [2] Spot Market - The spot price of platinum (Pt9995) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 489.65 yuan/gram, up 12.61 yuan; the average spot price of palladium in the Yangtze River was 329.00 yuan/gram, down 2.00 yuan. The basis of the platinum main contract decreased by 0.29 yuan/gram, and that of the palladium main contract decreased by 4.15 yuan/gram to - 28.30 yuan/gram [2] Supply - Demand Situation - The non - commercial long positions of platinum in CFTC decreased by 243.00 to 9966.00 contracts, and those of palladium decreased by 342.00 to 3003.00 contracts. The total supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to decrease by 0.80 tons to 220.40 tons, and that of palladium is expected to decrease by 5.00 tons to 293.00 tons. The total demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to increase by 25.60 tons to 261.60 tons, while that of palladium is expected to decrease by 27.00 tons to 287.00 tons [2] Macro Data - The US dollar index increased by 0.28 to 100.18, the 10 - year US Treasury real yield increased by 0.05 percentage points to 2.13%, and the VIX volatility index increased by 3.61 to 31.05 [2] Industry News - The US - Israel - Iran conflict is intense and stalemated. The US plans a ground operation in Iran, and the number of US troops in the Middle East exceeds 50,000. Wall Street institutions have significantly raised the probability of a US economic recession, with Moody's model showing a 48.6% probability in the next 12 months and Goldman Sachs raising it to 30%. The probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 2.1%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 97.9% [2] Fundamental Analysis - In 2026, the global platinum market is expected to have a shortage of 240,000 ounces, and the above - ground inventory at the end of the year may drop to 2.613 million ounces. The medium - term supply of platinum remains tight. The demand for platinum in automotive catalysts is supported by hybrid and internal combustion engine models. The Chinese fiberglass industry may be a new source of palladium demand, but currently, palladium demand is highly dependent on gasoline vehicle catalysts, and its structure is relatively single [2] Key Events to Watch - March 31, 22:00, US March Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index; March 31, 21:00, US January S&P House Price Index; April 1, 20:15, US March ADP Employment; April 1, 22:00, US March ISM Manufacturing PMI; April 2, 20:30, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 28; April 2, 20:30, US February Trade Balance; April 3, 20:30, US March Non - farm Payrolls [2]