LPG早报-20260331

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The disk fluctuates and declines, with the latest basis at -588 (+457) and the 5 - 6 month spread at 193 (+31) [1] - The conflict between the US and Iran shows no sign of cooling, US terminal operations are at full capacity, April inventory is still supported, but subsequent supply shortages may become more prominent [1] - There may be measures to ensure people's livelihoods in China, the PP - PG spread continues to widen, but the current valuation is not low and there may be negative feedback from the terminal, so it is not advisable to chase the high [1] - The valuation of the PG 5 - 6 month spread is not low, short - term geopolitical news has a large impact, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Quotes - Shandong civil LPG is 6430 (+0), Shandong ether - after LPG is 6550 (+50), Shandong propane is 6832 (+276), and Longkou Port propane is 7500 (+0) [1] - Platts assesses the CP South China CIF CFR discount at 358.5 (+20) at 6:30 pm on Monday, and the CFR price is 1013.5 (+35) [1] - At 11 pm on Monday, FEI is reported at 925.5 (+29.5), the 4 - 5 month spread is 105 (+3), and the 5 - 6 month spread is 77 (+9) [1] - PG - FEI05 internal - external spread is 136.8 (-37.9), and FEI - MOPJ is - 124 (-11) [1] 3.2 Weekly Views - The basis is -588 (+457), the 5 - 6 month spread is 193 (+31), and the number of warehouse receipts is 1300 (-1800) [1] - The cheapest deliverable is Shandong ether - after LPG at 6080 (+130) [1] - Shandong civil LPG is 6100 (+110), East China civil LPG is 7065 (+876), and South China civil LPG is 7205 (+905) [1] - The FEI month spread is 104 US dollars (-8), and the oil - gas ratio fluctuates [1] - The internal - external PG - FEI c2 is 156 (+13) [1] - The South China CP propane CIF discount is 368 (-133), and the FOB discounts of AFEI, US Gulf, and Middle East propane are 45 (-5), 182 (-91), and 245 (+245) respectively [1] - The FEI - MOPJ spread narrows to -122 (-46) [1] - Propane import profit rises significantly [1] - The spot profit of China's PDH - made propylene weakens to 734 (-611), and the paper futures of PDH - made PP in East and South China fluctuate significantly [1] - The port inventory ratio is 36.08% (-0.24pct), the arrival volume is 52.8 tons (-18.27%), the factory storage capacity is 24.92% (-1.13pct), and the external release is 51.78 tons (-3.36%) [1] - PDH operating rate is 63.6% (-2.03pct), alkylated oil capacity utilization rate is 38.6% (+0pct), MTBE operating rate is 67.3% (+0.76pct), and MTBE export orders are 0 tons (-4.5) [1]