大越期货纯碱早报-20260331

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of soda ash is showing a downward trend with enterprise maintenance, but the overall supply remains abundant. The daily melting volume of downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass continues to decline, and the inventory of soda ash plants is at the highest level in the same period in history, indicating a bearish outlook [2]. - The basis is -7 yuan, with the futures price at a premium to the spot price, showing a neutral situation [2]. - The national inventory of soda ash in plants is 185.19 million tons, an increase of 2.22% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2][31]. - The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, indicating a bearish trend [2]. - The main positions are net short, and the short positions are increasing, which is bearish [2]. - Due to the boost from the cost side, soda ash is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1229 yuan/ton to 1207 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.79%. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe decreased from 1205 yuan/ton to 1200 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.41%. The main basis decreased from - 24 yuan/ton to - 7 yuan/ton, a decline of 70.83% [5]. 3.2 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. 3.3 Soda Ash Production Profit - The profit of heavy soda ash produced by the ammonia - soda process in North China is - 94.20 yuan/ton, and the profit of the co - production process in East China is 135 yuan/ton [14]. 3.4 Soda Ash Operating Rate and Production - The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 81.87% [17]. - The weekly production of soda ash is 77.54 million tons, including 40.74 million tons of heavy soda ash, reaching a historical high [20]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 100.23% [23]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 14.49 million tons, and the operating rate is 70.12% [26]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national inventory of soda ash in plants is 185.19 million tons, an increase of 2.22% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [31]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [32]. 3.8 Influencing Factors - Likely Positive Factors: The cold - repair of downstream float glass is less, and the production remains stable. The conflict between the US and Iran boosts the bullish sentiment in the market [4]. - Likely Negative Factors: The operating load of the second - phase production line of Yuangxing Energy has increased, and there is no expectation of new maintenance, so the production is expected to remain at a high level. The production of photovoltaic glass, the downstream of heavy soda ash, has decreased, and the demand for soda ash has weakened [4]. - Main Logic: The supply of soda ash is at a high level, the terminal demand is declining, the inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [4].