大越期货玻璃早报-20260331

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The glass market is currently bearish overall. The production profit of glass has been slightly repaired, but cold repairs are less than expected, resulting in low supply. Downstream deep - processing orders are weak due to the real - estate drag, and inventory is at a historically high level for the same period. The futures price is at a premium to the spot price, and the price is running below the 20 - day line with a downward - sloping 20 - day line. The main positions are net short with a reduction in short positions. In the short term, due to the increase in the cost side, glass is expected to fluctuate mainly [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of glass futures decreased from 1041 yuan/ton to 1040 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.10%. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - board remained unchanged at 960 yuan/ton. The main basis decreased from - 81 yuan/ton to - 80 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.23% [5]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - board in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe is 960 yuan/ton, which is the same as the previous day [10]. Fundamental - Cost Side - No specific content about the cost - side analysis other than the mention of glass production profit is provided. Fundamental - Supply - The number of operating float - glass production lines in China is 207, with an operating rate of 70.41%, at a historically low level for the same period. The daily melting volume of float glass is 145,800 tons, and the production capacity is at a historically low level for the same period [16][18]. Fundamental - Demand - In November 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.6944 million tons. Other aspects of demand analysis such as housing sales, new construction, construction, and completion areas, and downstream processing plant operations and orders are mentioned but lack specific data analysis [22]. Fundamental - Inventory - The inventory of national float - glass enterprises is 73.622 million weight boxes, a decrease of 1.09% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [37]. Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet shows the production, consumption, and other data of float glass from 2017 to 2024E. For example, in 2024E, the production is expected to be 55.1 million tons, the consumption is 53.1 million tons, and the net import ratio is - 0.90% [38]. Influencing Factors - Positive factors: The glass production profit is at a low level, leading to a decline in production. The conflict between the US and Iran boosts fuel costs [3]. - Negative factors: The terminal demand in the real - estate sector remains weak, and the number of orders for glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historically low level for the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processing plants are cautious, mainly focusing on digesting the original - piece inventory [3]. Main Logic - Due to the boost of macro - sentiment, the glass supply is at a low level, but the orders of downstream deep - processing plants are weak, and the glass factory inventory is at a high level. It is expected that glass will mainly fluctuate in a wide range [4].