建信期货棉花日报-20260331

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Report date: March 31, 2026 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Zhengzhou cotton has been oscillating and adjusting. The latest price index of Grade 328 cotton is 16,823 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The prices of 2025/26 Southern Xinjiang Kashi machine-picked Grade 31 double 29/cotton with impurity within 3 are mostly above CF05+1200, with a small number of low prices between 1150 - 1200. The higher quotes in Northern Xinjiang are above 1400, with a small number of low prices between 1300 - 1400, for self-pickup in Xinjiang [7]. - The trading of pure cotton yarn is average. Spinning mills mainly execute previous orders, with few new orders, and inventory has increased. Downstream weavers and traders are cautious, mainly making rigid purchases. Prices are stable with a weak trend. The high-priced spot goods from the previous period are decreasing, some traders are offering discounts for promotion, and the quotes of spinning mills are temporarily stable. The trading atmosphere in the all-cotton grey fabric market has become weaker, prices are loose, and prices can be negotiated depending on the quantity. Garment orders are approaching the end, and it is difficult to connect subsequent orders. Export orders are still sluggish, and it is expected that the improvement of subsequent orders will be limited [7]. - In the international market, the net position of CFTC US cotton funds has continued to rise week-on-week. The weekly signing and shipment have changed from weak to strong. The drought level in the main producing areas and Texas is still at a relatively high level in recent years. The grain-to-cotton price ratio is not much different from the same period last year. Attention should be paid to the results of the USDA cotton planting intention survey, and the US cotton maintains a strong trend. In the domestic market, the inspection volume of Xinjiang cotton is still slightly increasing. The planting of new cotton in the next season has started in some areas, and it is expected to start intensively in mid-to-early April. In the downstream of the industry, spinning mills mainly execute previous orders. As the raw material cost gradually rises, the operating rate of inland spinning mills has slightly decreased. In the short term, the market will continue to oscillate and adjust, lacking new drivers. Attention should be paid to the guidance of the new cotton expectations and actual planting conditions in the 2026/27 season [8]. Group 3: Industry News - As of March 24, the drought degree and coverage index of the main US cotton producing areas (93.0%) is 238, a week-on-week increase of 11 and a year-on-year increase of 86. The drought degree and coverage index of Texas is 266, a week-on-week increase of 13 and a year-on-year increase of 35. The drought index in the main US cotton producing areas is rising, and the drought level in the main producing areas and Texas is still at a relatively high level in recent years. According to the quarterly outlook, the drought in the main US cotton producing areas and Texas will continue from March to June, even intensify in the central and western regions, and ease in the eastern producing areas [9]. - The preparations for spring plowing in the Korla cotton area of Xinjiang are basically in place, and it is expected to enter the intensive sowing stage after the Tomb-Sweeping Festival. It is understood that the local area follows the previous planting rhythm, and most cotton fields are planned to be sown intensively after the Tomb-Sweeping Festival. Currently, only a few plots have started sowing [9]. Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including China's cotton price index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, CF1 - 5 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, warehouse receipt total, US dollar to RMB exchange rate, and US dollar to Indian rupee exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [17][18][20][28][30]