集运早报-20260331

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The EC2604 contract has entered the delivery logic with neutral valuation. Its trend is expected to follow the spot price, and the market is concerned about subsequent shipping company quotes and geopolitical situations [3]. - The EC2606 contract has become the main contract. It is recommended to wait and see because it is greatly affected by geopolitical news and shipping company behaviors, and its valuation is difficult to determine [3]. - Geopolitical risks remain and are difficult to predict. It is recommended to observe opportunities brought by the deviation of monthly spreads, but attention should be paid to the current poor liquidity of EC [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Contract Information - Contract Prices and Changes: The EC2604 contract closed at 1719.7 with a -0.88% change; EC2605 at 2005.6 with a 0.64% change; EC2606 at 2532.3 with a 6.18% change; EC2607 at 2625.0 with a 3.78% change; EC2608 at 2539.0 with a 5.66% change; EC2609 at 1753.7 with a 2.52% change; EC2610 at 1626.0 with a 1.93% change; EC2612 at 1834.2 with a 4.06% change [2]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of EC2604 was 8177, and the open interest was 7029 with a decrease of 2233; EC2605 had a trading volume of 1460 and an open - interest of 2027 with an increase of 205; EC2606 had a trading volume of 26147 and an open - interest of 17711 with an increase of 3558; EC2607 had a trading volume of 32 and an open - interest of 1231 with an increase of 187; EC2608 had a trading volume of 1308 and an open - interest of 2808 with an increase of 166; EC2609 had a trading volume of 111 and an open - interest of 541 with an increase of 48; EC2610 had a trading volume of 3462 and an open - interest of 7135 with a decrease of 29; EC2612 had a trading volume of 214 and an open - interest of 471 with a decrease of 30 [2]. - Basis and Monthly Spreads: The basis of EC2604 was 32.8, EC2605 was -253.1, EC2606 was -779.8, EC2607 was -872.5, EC2608 was -786.5, EC2609 was -1.2, EC2610 was 126.5, and EC2612 was -81.7. The monthly spread of EC2604 - 2606 was -812.6 (a decrease of 162.6 compared to the previous day and 272.3 compared to the previous week); EC2604 - 2605 was -285.9 (a decrease of 28.0 compared to the previous day and 279.3 compared to the previous week); EC2606 - 2610 was 906.3 (an increase of 116.5 compared to the previous day and 40.1 compared to the previous week) [2]. Spot Market Information - Spot Price Changes: The spot price (in points) on March 30, 2026, was 1752.54, a 3.50% increase from the previous period, and the previous period had an 8.79% increase. The SCFI (European line) on March 27, 2026, was 1703 US dollars/TEU, a 4.10% increase from the previous period, and the previous period had a 1.11% increase [2]. - European Line Spot Quotes: In Week 13, MSK quoted 2250 US dollars flat, PA quoted 2400 - 2500, and some voyages were 2200 (2000 for large - volume orders), with the spot average converted to the futures price being about 1700 - 1800 points, and the price increase in April failed. In Week 14, the average quote was 2570 US dollars, converted to 1800 points. In Week 15, Maersk quoted 2350 US dollars (a decrease of 300 compared to the previous period), PA continued to use the previous quote, and OA and MSC had not fully reported [4]. Relevant News - On March 30, hundreds of US special operations forces arrived in the Middle East to participate in a deployment action related to a military conflict with Iran [5]. - On March 30, three Chinese ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz [5]. - On March 31, an Iranian attack on a Kuwaiti fully - loaded oil tanker caused the oil price to rise [5].