《有色》日报-20260331

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon has cost support at the bottom and hedging and arbitrage pressure at the top. The spot price is stable, while the futures price has declined due to the failure to reach production control. In the second quarter, it is expected to fluctuate between 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. [1] Tin - In the short - term, tin prices may show a weak and volatile trend due to the Middle - East situation. In the long - term, there is a bullish logic. If the conflict shows signs of ending, long positions can be established at low prices. [2] Polysilicon - Polysilicon is in a situation of oversupply, and the price is under pressure. It is expected that the price will continue to decline in April. The market is currently inactive, and it is recommended to wait and see. [3] Copper - Copper prices have entered an adjustment phase. The supply - demand fundamentals have slightly improved, and the inventory pressure has weakened. However, the price is still suppressed. In the long - term, there may be opportunities for long - term long positions. [5] Zinc - Zinc is in a cycle of weak supply and demand. The smelting cost supports the zinc price, and there is potential for downstream restocking and export. The price is expected to have limited room for further decline, and opportunities for price rebound can be considered. [7] Nickel - The Indonesian policy and raw material contradictions support the nickel price, but the slow digestion of inventory restricts it. The nickel price is expected to run in a strong range. [9] Aluminum - Alumina is in a state of over - capacity, and the price is expected to fluctuate around the cost line. The price of electrolytic aluminum is supported by the Middle - East situation and is expected to run in the range of 23,500 - 25,500 yuan/ton. [11] Stainless Steel - The cost logic of stainless steel is strong, with support from news and raw materials. The demand is gradually recovering, but the terminal acceptance is still weak. It is expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend. [13] Lithium Carbonate - The supply - side news has boosted the market sentiment. The short - term fundamentals are still resilient. It is expected to run in a strong range. [15] Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The price is expected to run in the range of 22,500 - 24,000 yuan/ton, following the trend of electrolytic aluminum. [17] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - Spot Price and Basis: The prices of different grades of industrial silicon remained unchanged on March 27 compared to March 26, while the basis of some varieties increased. [1] - Monthly Spread: The main contract price decreased by 1.26% on March 27 compared to March 26, and some monthly spreads changed significantly. [1] - Fundamental Data (Monthly): National and regional industrial silicon production,开工率, and the production of related downstream products all decreased. The export volume of industrial silicon also decreased. [1] - Inventory Change: The inventory in Xinjiang decreased, while the social inventory increased slightly. [1] Tin - Spot Price and Basis: The prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze 1 tin increased, while the SMM 1 tin premium decreased. [2] - Internal - External Ratio and Import Profit and Loss: The import loss decreased slightly, and the Shanghai - London ratio remained unchanged. [2] - Monthly Spread: Some monthly spreads changed significantly. [2] - Fundamental Data (Monthly): The import of tin ore, the production of refined tin, and the开工率 of related enterprises changed. The export volume of refined tin decreased, while the export volume of Indonesian refined tin increased. [2] - Inventory Change: The inventories in SHEF, social, SHEF warehouse receipts, and LME all decreased. [2] Polysilicon - Spot Price and Basis: The average prices of N - type polysilicon remained unchanged, while the basis decreased. [3] - Futures Price and Monthly Spread: The main contract price increased, and some monthly spreads changed significantly. [3] - Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly): The production of silicon wafers decreased, while the production of polysilicon increased on a weekly basis but decreased on a monthly basis. The import and export volumes of polysilicon and silicon wafers changed. [3] - Inventory Change: The inventories of polysilicon and silicon wafers decreased. [3] Copper - Price and Basis: The prices of different types of electrolytic copper decreased slightly, and the premium of some varieties changed. The refined - scrap price difference decreased significantly. [5] - Monthly Spread: Some monthly spreads changed. [5] - Fundamental Data: The production and import volume of electrolytic copper decreased. The import copper concentrate index decreased, and the inventory of copper concentrate in domestic ports increased. The开工率 of electrolytic copper rods increased, while that of recycled copper rods decreased. The inventories in different regions and exchanges changed. [5] Zinc - Price and Basis: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased, and the premium changed. The import loss increased, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased. [7] - Monthly Spread: Some monthly spreads changed. [7] - Fundamental Data: The production and import volume of refined zinc decreased, while the export volume increased. The开工 rates of related industries changed slightly. The social inventory of zinc ingots decreased, and the LME inventory decreased slightly. [7] Nickel - Price and Basis: The prices of different types of nickel decreased, and the premium of some varieties decreased. The LME 0 - 3 spread increased slightly, and the futures import profit increased significantly. The Shanghai - London ratio increased. [9] - Electrowinning Nickel Cost: The costs of different production methods of electrowinning nickel changed. [9] - New Energy Material Price: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased, while the prices of other new energy materials remained unchanged. [9] - Monthly Spread: Some monthly spreads changed. [9] - Supply, Demand and Inventory: The production of refined nickel decreased, while the import volume increased. The inventories in different regions and exchanges changed. [9] Aluminum - Price and Spread: The prices of SMM A00 aluminum and Yangtze A00 aluminum increased. The prices of alumina in different regions increased slightly. The import loss of electrolytic aluminum increased, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased. Some monthly spreads changed. [11] - Fundamental Data: The production of alumina and electrolytic aluminum decreased. The开工 rates of related industries changed. The inventories in different regions and exchanges changed. [11] Stainless Steel - Price and Basis: The prices of 304/2B stainless steel decreased slightly, and the basis decreased. The prices of some raw materials decreased slightly. [13] - Monthly Spread: Some monthly spreads changed. [13] - Fundamental Data: The production of 300 - series stainless steel in China increased, while that in Indonesia decreased. The import, export, and net export volumes of stainless steel changed significantly. The inventories of 300 - series stainless steel increased slightly. [13] Lithium Carbonate - Price and Basis: The prices of different types of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide increased. The basis decreased. The prices of lithium ore increased. [15] - Monthly Spread: Some monthly spreads changed. [15] - Fundamental Data: The production and demand of lithium carbonate decreased. The import volume decreased slightly, and the export volume increased. The capacity increased slightly, and the开工 rate decreased. The total inventory, downstream inventory, and smelter inventory decreased. [15] Aluminum Alloy - Price and Spread: The prices of different types of aluminum alloy increased. The average monthly price of Jiangxi Baotai ADC12 decreased. The refined - scrap price difference increased. Some monthly spreads changed. [17] - Fundamental Data: The production of recycled and primary aluminum alloy ingots, and the production of scrap aluminum decreased. The import and export volumes of unforged aluminum alloy ingots decreased. The开工 rates of related industries decreased. The social inventory, factory - finished inventory, and raw material inventory of recycled aluminum alloy decreased. The daily inventories in different regions changed. [17]