大越期货白糖早报-20260331

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Zheng sugar is expected to oscillate upwards. The K-line has crossed above the long-term moving average, and the moving averages are starting to diverge upwards, showing a trend of a right-side market from a technical perspective. The domestic consumption peak season is approaching, and the rising crude oil price has increased the price of sugar-based ethanol, indirectly supporting the sugar price. Although sugar prices rose and then fell yesterday, the overall trend is advancing three steps and retreating two, with the center of gravity slowly moving up. The main contract is about to shift to the 09 contract, and a short-long strategy can be adopted during rapid intraday declines [4][8]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the given content 2. Daily Tips - Fundamentals: In the first half of March, sugarcane crushing in central and southern Brazil decreased by 30% year-on-year. Datagro predicts a sugar shortage of 2.68 million tons in the 26/27 sugar season. ISO expects a global sugar market surplus of 1.22 million tons in the 25/26 sugar season, down from the previous estimate of 1.63 million tons. Covrig Analytics forecasts that the global sugar surplus in the 26/27 year will shrink to 1.4 million tons, lower than the 4.7 million tons in the 25/26 year. Green Pool expects a global sugar supply surplus of 156,000 tons in the 26/27 year, lower than the 2.74 million tons in the 25/26 year. As of the end of February 2026, the cumulative sugar production in the 25/26 season in China was 9.26 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales were 3.45 million tons; the sales rate was 37.15%. From January to February 2026, China imported 520,000 tons of sugar, a year-on-year increase of 440,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 142,100 tons, a year-on-year increase of 32,900 tons [4]. - Basis: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5,470, and the basis is 3 (for the 09 contract), indicating a flat price relative to the futures; neutral [4]. - Inventory: As of the end of February, the industrial inventory in the 25/26 sugar season was 5.81 million tons; neutral [4]. - Market Trend: The 20-day moving average is upward, and the K-line is above the 20-day moving average, indicating a bullish trend. The main position is bearish, with a net short position increase, and the main trend is bearish [5]. - Factors Affecting the Market: Bullish factors include a possible decline in Brazilian sugar production in the 26/27 year, an increase in syrup tariffs, the change in the US cola formula to use sucrose, and the rising crude oil price. Bearish factors include an increase in global sugar production and the opening of the import profit window, which will increase import impact [6]. 3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the given content 4. Fundamental Data - Supply and Demand Forecasts by Institutions: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 and 26/27 sugar seasons. For example, ISO expects a surplus of 1.22 million tons in the 25/26 season, StoneX predicts a surplus of 870,000 tons, and Green Pool expects a surplus of 156,000 tons in the 26/27 year [4][8][29]. - Domestic Sugar Production and Sales Data: As of the end of February 2026, the cumulative sugar production in the 25/26 season in China was 9.26 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales were 3.45 million tons; the sales rate was 37.15%. From January to February 2026, China imported 520,000 tons of sugar, a year-on-year increase of 440,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 142,100 tons, a year-on-year increase of 32,900 tons [4]. - Sugar Production and Consumption in Different Years: Data on sugar production, consumption, and other aspects from 2023/24 to 2025/26 are provided, including sugarcane and beet planting areas, yields, and import and consumption volumes [31]. - Imported Raw Sugar Processing Costs: The cost of imported raw sugar after processing and paying 50% tariffs is provided for different dates, including ICE raw sugar closing prices, exchange rates, and costs within and outside the quota [34]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the given content