大越期货油脂早报-20260331

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall outlook for oil prices is oscillating on the stronger side. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic oil supply is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the export and price of new US soybeans. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and demand is improving. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The soaring international crude oil price drives up oil prices. The domestic oil fundamentals are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views - Soybean Oil - Fundamental: The MPOB report shows that in December, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 5.46% month - on - month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% month - on - month to 1.3165 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory increased by 7.59% month - on - month to 3.0506 million tons. The report is slightly bearish. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil in January shows a 29% month - on - month increase, and the supply pressure will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season. It is neutral. - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8810, with a basis of 96, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish. - Inventory: On January 9, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, down 60,000 tons from the previous 1.08 million tons, a month - on - month decrease, but a year - on - year increase of 14.7%. It is bearish. - Market: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It is bullish. - Main position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract are decreasing. It is bullish. - Expectation: The price of soybean oil Y2605 will oscillate in the range of 8500 - 8900 [2]. - Palm Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, but the export data in January shows an increase, and the supply pressure will decrease in the production - reduction season. It is neutral. - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 9660, with a basis of 270, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. It is bearish. - Inventory: On January 9, the port inventory of palm oil was 736,000 tons, up 2200 tons from the previous 733,800 tons, a month - on - month increase, and a year - on - year increase of 46%. It is bearish. - Market: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It is bullish. - Main position: The short positions of the main palm oil contract are decreasing. It is bearish. - Expectation: The price of palm oil P2605 will oscillate in the range of 9800 - 10200 [3]. - Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental: The MPOB report is slightly bearish, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease in the production - reduction season. It is neutral. - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10304, with a basis of 413, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish. - Inventory: On January 9, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250,000 tons, down 20,000 tons from the previous 270,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease, and a year - on - year decrease of 44%. It is bullish. - Market: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It is bullish. - Main position: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract are decreasing. It is bearish. - Expectation: The price of rapeseed oil OI2605 will oscillate in the range of 9700 - 11000 [4]. Recent利多利空Analysis - Likely to be Bullish: The US soybean stock - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating a tight supply. There is a tremor season for palm oil. - Likely to be Bearish: The oil prices are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic oil inventory is continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils is high. - Current Main Logic: The global oil fundamentals are relatively loose [5].