建信期货聚烯烃日报-20260331

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: March 31, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Quotes - Futures Market Quotes: Plastic 2701 opened at 8521 yuan/ton, closed at 8313 yuan/ton with a decline of 67 yuan/ton (-0.80%); Plastic 2605 opened at 9241 yuan/ton, closed at 8804 yuan/ton with an increase of 3 yuan/ton (0.03%); Plastic 2609 opened at 8900 yuan/ton, closed at 8684 yuan/ton with an increase of 3 yuan/ton (0.03%); PP2701 opened at 8640 yuan/ton, closed at 8459 yuan/ton with a decline of 22 yuan/ton (-0.26%); PP2605 opened at 9500 yuan/ton, closed at 9269 yuan/ton with an increase of 40 yuan/ton (0.43%); PP2609 opened at 9130 yuan/ton, closed at 8931 yuan/ton with an increase of 32 yuan/ton (0.36%) [5] Group 3: Market Review and Outlook - Market Performance: L2605 opened higher and moved downward during the session, closing at 8804 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton (0.03%), with a trading volume of 890,000 lots and a decrease in positions by 2555 to 324,187 lots. PP2605 closed at 9269 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton (0.43%), with a decrease in positions by 19,730 to 337,600 lots [6] - Supply Situation: The Middle - East conflict led to naphtha shortage, causing cracking units in Japan and South Korea to reduce their loads. Multiple PEPP units in North and Northeast China also reduced their loads. With the new capacity release in the first half of the year in a window period, the subsequent supply contraction is expected to exceed expectations. In addition, Southeast and South Asian regions are seeking alternative sources to the Middle - East, and the domestic exports in March may reach a new high, further tightening the domestic supply [6] - Demand Situation: The overall demand is weak. Although the operating rate of downstream enterprises has increased month - on - month, the transmission of product prices to the end - market is not smooth, squeezing the enterprise profits. Some enterprises are forced to sell their raw material inventories to recover funds. High raw material prices continue to suppress the willingness of end - customers to accept orders, and downstream procurement is cautious, mainly in a wait - and - see mode [6] - Market Outlook: The polyolefin market is driven by strong cost support and substantial supply contraction, maintaining a strong and volatile upward trend. At present, the fundamental contradictions are not yet intense, and the market is significantly affected by geopolitical situations and crude oil prices [6] Group 4: Industry News - Inventory Level: On March 30, 2026, the inventory level of major producers was 860,000 tons, an increase of 90,000 tons (11.69%) compared with the previous working day. The inventory in the same period last year was 730,000 tons [7] - Market Prices: PE market prices rose. The LLDPE prices in North China were in the range of 8700 - 9800 yuan/ton, in East China 8850 - 9700 yuan/ton, and in South China 9050 - 9800 yuan/ton. PP market prices rose significantly. The mainstream quotes for drawn PP in North China were 9150 - 9300 yuan/ton, in East China 9200 - 9400 yuan/ton, and in South China 9500 - 9650 yuan/ton [7] Group 5: Data Overview - Figures: The report includes figures such as L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventories, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase or decrease [9][17][18]