大越期货PTA、MEG早报-20260331

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report PTA - Yesterday, PTA futures fluctuated and closed down. The market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis fluctuated within a certain range. The expected short - term PTA spot price will follow the cost - side to fluctuate widely, and the upside space of the basis is limited. With the downstream polyester production cut news and the possible load reduction of PTA factories, attention should be paid to subsequent changes in the cost side and upstream and downstream devices [5]. MEG - Overseas logistics is blocked, and the import volume of ethylene glycol will drop to a low level later. Although the demand support has weakened due to the production cut plans of polyester factories, the supply - side contraction of ethylene glycol is more obvious. The de - stocking amplitude from April to May is still expanding, and the social inventory will quickly shrink later. In the short term, ethylene glycol will maintain a relatively strong pattern, and attention should be paid to the progress of the US - Iran negotiations [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1前日回顾 No information provided in the report. 3.2每日提示 PTA - Fundamentals: Yesterday, PTA futures fluctuated and closed down. The market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis fluctuated within a certain range. The spot was negotiated and traded at around 05 - 5062, with the price negotiation range at 67006930. There were transactions at around 05 - 48 in the middle of the month. This week's warehouse receipts were traded at around 05 - 45. Today's mainstream spot basis is at 05 - 59 [5]. - Basis: The spot price is 6830, the basis of the 05 contract is 62, and the futures price is at a discount, showing a neutral situation [6]. - Inventory: The inventory of PTA factories is 5.85 days, a decrease of 0.07 days compared with the previous period, showing a positive situation [6]. - Market trend: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a positive situation [6]. - Main positions: The net long position decreased, showing a positive situation [6]. - Expectation: The US - Iran situation is still tense. The market is waiting and seeing the negotiation progress. With the repeated geopolitical news this week, international oil prices fluctuated widely at a high level, driving the polyester raw materials to rebound after a decline. The activity of traders in the spot market decreased, there were few bids in the market, and the spot basis fluctuated within a certain range. It is expected that the short - term PTA spot price will follow the cost - side to fluctuate widely, and the upside space of the basis is limited. With the downstream polyester production cut news and the possible load reduction of PTA factories, attention should be paid to subsequent changes in the cost side and upstream and downstream devices [5]. MEG - Fundamentals: On Monday, the price center of ethylene glycol first rose and then fell, and the basis strengthened significantly. In the morning, the ethylene glycol futures market was firm and rising, and the spot was traded at a high level of around 5550 - 5560 yuan/ton. Traders' buying enthusiasm was high, and the spot basis strengthened rapidly. In the afternoon, the ethylene glycol futures market corrected from the high level, and the spot was negotiated at a premium of 5 - 25 yuan/ton to the 05 contract at the end of the session, showing a neutral situation [8]. - Basis: The spot price is 5429, the basis of the 05 contract is 70, and the futures price is at a discount, showing a neutral situation [8]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China is 92.9 tons, an increase of 1.2 tons compared with the previous period, showing a negative situation [8]. - Market trend: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a positive situation [8]. - Main positions: The net short position increased, showing a negative situation [7]. - Expectation: Overseas logistics is blocked, and the import volume of ethylene glycol will drop to a low level later. The port inventory can show a continuous decline from mid - April. Due to the high raw material prices, the polyester factories' production cut and suspension plans have been successively introduced recently, and the average monthly load of polyester in April will drop to around 85% - 86%. The demand support has weakened. However, the supply - side contraction of ethylene glycol is more obvious, and the de - stocking amplitude from April to May is still expanding, expected to be around 600,000 tons. The social inventory will quickly shrink later. In the short term, ethylene glycol will maintain a relatively strong pattern, and attention should be paid to the progress of the US - Iran negotiations [7]. 3.3今日关注 No information provided in the report. 3.4基本面数据 PX Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It shows the monthly supply - demand balance data of PX from September 2025 to June 2026, including production capacity base, output, import volume, demand, inventory change, domestic utilization rate, demand from polyester, and balance with polyester [12]. PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It shows the monthly supply - demand balance data of PTA from October 2025 to September 2026, including total output, import, export, total consumption, distillate consumption, other consumption, surplus, year - on - year output change, year - on - year consumption change, cumulative year - on - year output change, and cumulative year - on - year consumption change [13]. Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It shows the monthly supply - demand balance data of ethylene glycol from October 2025 to September 2026, including total output, import, export, total consumption, polyester consumption, other consumption, surplus, year - on - year output change, year - on - year import change, year - on - year supply change, year - on - year consumption change, cumulative year - on - year supply change, and cumulative year - on - year consumption change [14]. 3.5影响因素总结 Bullish factors - The Strait of Hormuz is continuously blocked, and the Middle East supply is severely interrupted. The Strait of Hormuz accounts for about 20% of the world's oil supply and is still under the actual control of Iran. The output of major oil fields in southern Iraq has dropped sharply to only 1.3 million barrels per day (about 4.3 million barrels per day before the war), and Kuwait has also announced production cuts due to force majeure. The major oil - producing countries in the Middle East have been forced to significantly reduce exports, and there is a continuous supply gap in the market [10]. - Iran denies negotiations, and the prospect of a cease - fire is unclear. Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi said that Tehran has not conducted direct negotiations with Washington, which disappointed the market's expectations of a market downgrade. Brent crude oil rose nearly 2% on Thursday, breaking through $104 per barrel. As long as there is no substantial progress in the cease - fire agreement, the geopolitical premium will be difficult to subside [10]. - Trump's tough stance continues to increase the risk premium. Trump posted on social media on Thursday morning that "Iran had better get serious soon, otherwise it will be irreversible", and oil prices immediately rose by about 3%, while the stock market was under pressure. The uncertainty of US military operations continues to provide upward momentum for oil prices [10]. Bearish factors - Trump suspended the strike on Iran's energy infrastructure. Trump announced on Monday that he would suspend the military strike on Iran's energy infrastructure for five days, saying that the US and Iran were having "productive dialogues", and oil prices immediately plunged by more than 10%. This was the biggest single - day bearish impact this week [11]. - The IEA released the largest - ever strategic reserve. The International Energy Agency obtained the unanimous consent of 32 member states on March 11 and approved the release of a record 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves to deal with the global oil supply shortage caused by the US - Israel military operations against Iran. Although the actual delivery takes time, this move provides psychological buffer for the market and suppresses some of the upward momentum [11]. - Trump's "cease - fire negotiation" remarks and the spread of the 15 - point peace plan. Trump said that the US and Iran had "good and productive dialogues" in the past two days, aiming to promote a "complete and thorough solution" to the Middle East conflict. Brent crude oil once plunged by more than 13%. On Wednesday, it was reported that Trump proposed a 15 - point peace plan to Iran, and oil prices subsequently fell. Although Iran later denied the negotiations, such news still temporarily and effectively suppressed oil prices [11].