大越期货沥青期货早报-20260331

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that in April 2026, the total domestic asphalt production was 1527,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 440,000 tons (22.4%) and a year - on - year decrease of 764,000 tons (33.3%). The sample capacity utilization rate was 20.4338%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.34 percentage points. The refineries reduced production this week, but supply pressure may increase next week [7]. - The demand side indicates that the current demand is below the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 19.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.11 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 was 5.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.29 percentage points; the modified asphalt开工率 was 3.1047%, a month - on - month increase of 1.98 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 14%, a month - on - month increase of 4.00 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 45%, a month - on - month increase of 9.00 percentage points [7]. - On the cost side, the daily asphalt processing profit was - 497.43 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 69.70%. The weekly Shandong local refinery delayed coking profit was 844.9771 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 9.86%. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to support the price in the short term [7]. - The basis on March 30 showed that the Shandong spot price was 4420 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 06 contract was - 93 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish [7]. - In terms of inventory, the social inventory was 1214,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.59%; the in - plant inventory was 757,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.93%; the port diluted asphalt inventory was 590,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.66%. The social inventory continued to accumulate, while the in - plant and port inventories continued to decline, which is bullish [7]. - The disk shows that MA20 is upward, and the price of the 06 contract closed above MA20, which is bullish [7]. - The main positions are net long, with a decrease in long positions, which is bullish [7]. - It is expected that the refineries' recent production scheduling has reduced supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, demand is sluggish and fails to meet expectations. Inventory continues to decline. The strengthening of crude oil provides short - term cost support. The disk is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with asphalt 2606 fluctuating in the range of 4387 - 4639 [7]. - The bullish factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support [10]. - The bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward demand, along with the increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [11]. - The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high on the supply side, and the recovery is weak on the demand side [12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Supply: In April 2026, domestic asphalt production decreased significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year. This week, refineries reduced production, but supply pressure may increase next week [7]. - Demand: The current demand is below the historical average, with different trends in the开工率 of various types of asphalt [7]. - Cost: The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. Crude oil strengthening is expected to support the price in the short term [7]. - Basis: The spot is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish [7]. - Inventory: Social inventory accumulates, while in - plant and port inventories decline, which is bullish [7]. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the 06 contract price is above MA20, which is bullish [7]. - Main Positions: Net long with a decrease in long positions, which is bullish [7]. - Expectation: The disk is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with asphalt 2606 in the range of 4387 - 4639 [7]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - Price Changes: The report provides the price changes of different contracts of asphalt futures, including the current value, previous value, change, and change rate. For example, the 01 contract price increased from 3830 to 3893, with a change rate of 1.64% [14]. - Basis and Spread Analysis: It shows the basis of different contracts and some inter - month spreads, such as the 3 - 6, 3 - 9, 6 - 9, etc. spreads, and their changes [14]. - Charts: There are charts showing the basis trends in Shandong and East China, the spreads between the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts, the price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil, the crude oil cracking spreads, and the price - to - ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [18][23][25][28][32]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - There is a chart showing the price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China and Shandong [35]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis: Charts show the asphalt profit and the profit spread between coking and asphalt [37][40]. - Supply - side Analysis: - Shipment Volume: There is a chart of the weekly shipment volume [44]. - Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory: A chart shows the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory [47]. - Production: Charts display the weekly and monthly production [50]. - Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Production: A chart shows the Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production trends [53]. - Local Refinery Asphalt Production: A chart shows the local refinery asphalt production [56]. - Capacity Utilization Rate: A chart shows the weekly capacity utilization rate [59]. - Maintenance Loss Estimation: A chart shows the maintenance loss estimation trend [62]. - Inventory Analysis: - Exchange Warehouse Receipts: A chart shows the exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) [65]. - Social and In - plant Inventories: Charts show the social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) [69]. - In - plant Inventory Inventory Ratio: A chart shows the in - plant inventory inventory ratio [72]. - Import and Export Analysis: Charts show the asphalt export and import trends and the South Korean asphalt import price spread trend [75][78]. - Demand - side Analysis: - Petroleum Coke Production: A chart shows the petroleum coke production [81]. - Apparent Consumption: A chart shows the apparent consumption [84]. - Downstream Demand: Charts show the downstream demand trends, including highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion year - on - year, and downstream machinery demand (asphalt concrete paver sales, domestic excavator sales, roller sales, excavator monthly working hours) [87][91]. - Asphalt开工率: Charts show the heavy - traffic asphalt开工率, asphalt开工率 by use, and downstream开工率 (shoe - material SBS modified asphalt开工率, road - modified asphalt开工率, waterproofing membrane modified asphalt开工率) [96][99][100]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: A chart shows the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt, including monthly production, import, export, downstream demand, social inventory, in - plant inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory [104].