大越期货菜粕早报-20260331

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The rapeseed meal is experiencing a volatile decline, influenced by the soybean meal's trend and technical oscillations. The short - term negative impact of China's cancellation of export restrictions on Canadian agricultural products has been digested, while the escalation of the Middle East conflict provides short - term positive factors. The spot demand for rapeseed meal is in the off - season, but the low inventory supports the market. With good post - Spring Festival demand expectations, the market is expected to return to a volatile pattern. The RM2605 contract of rapeseed meal is expected to oscillate between 2270 and 2330 [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Hints - The rapeseed meal futures are oscillating downwards, the spot is relatively weak, and the spot premium remains at a low level. The spot - to - futures basis is 10, indicating a premium. The inventory of rapeseed meal in China is 40.58 tons, up 1.86% week - on - week and down 12.92% year - on - year. The price is below the 20 - day moving average and trending downwards. The main positions have shifted from short to long, with capital inflows [8][21]. 3.2 Recent News - The domestic aquaculture industry has entered the seasonal off - season. The spot market supply is expected to remain tight in the short term, and the weak demand suppresses the market. Canadian rapeseed exports to China have returned to normal, and the import volume is gradually increasing. The relationship between China and Canada in trade has improved in the short term, and the tariffs imposed by both sides are being gradually removed. Global rapeseed production is increasing this year, especially in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production offset by the increase in Russian production. The Middle East situation is escalating, and global geopolitical conflicts may further intensify, providing support for commodities [10]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish: Good post - Spring Festival demand expectations for Chinese rapeseed meal and no pressure on oil mills' rapeseed meal inventory [11]. - Bearish: The short - term off - season of domestic rapeseed meal demand and the resumption of Chinese imports of Canadian rapeseed due to improved China - Canada trade relations [11]. - Main Logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected arrival of Canadian rapeseed imports [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Trading Data: From March 20th to March 30th, the average trading price and trading volume of soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated. The average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal also showed small fluctuations [12]. - Price Data: From March 24th to March 30th, the prices of rapeseed meal futures (2605 and 2609 contracts) and spot prices in Fujian showed certain changes [14]. - Warehouse Receipt Data: From March 23rd to March 30th, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts remained at 0 [16]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheets: The supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2016 to 2025 show the changes in harvest area, output, consumption, inventory, etc. [18][20]. 3.5 Position Data - The main positions of rapeseed meal have shifted from short to long, with capital inflows [8]. Other Market Conditions - The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in the 2605 contract is at a relatively high level. The import of rapeseed has increased since March, and the import cost has fluctuated slightly. The inventory of rapeseed in oil mills has decreased slightly, while the rapeseed meal inventory has increased from a low level. The oil mills' rapeseed crushing volume and startup rate have increased slightly but remain at a low level in the short term. The prices of aquatic fish have fluctuated slightly, and the prices of shrimp and shellfish have remained stable [23][26][28][30][38].