大越期货豆粕早报-20260331

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - For bean meal M2605, it is expected to oscillate between 2900 and 2960. The US soybeans are oscillating downward due to increased planting area and technical adjustment. The domestic bean meal is affected by the US soybeans and sufficient supply expectations. Although China's continuous procurement of US soybeans supports the short - term US soybean market, the completion of procurement volume and good weather in South America limit its upside. The domestic bean meal will enter an oscillating and slightly stronger pattern in the short term [9]. - For soybeans A2605, it is predicted to oscillate between 4560 and 4660. The US soybeans are in an oscillating state, waiting for the implementation of the China - US trade agreement and the weather in South American harvesting areas. The domestic soybeans are affected by the US soybeans, the Middle - East conflict, and short - term demand, and will maintain a high - level oscillation. The purchase volume of US soybeans by China is uncertain, and the good weather in South America restricts the upside of the US soybean market. Domestic soybean storage and cost - performance advantages support the bottom, but the expected increase in domestic new - season soybean production and spot prices limit the upside [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Bean meal M2605 is expected to oscillate between 2900 - 2960, and soybeans A2605 between 4560 - 4660. The market is influenced by factors such as US soybean planting area, China - US trade, South American weather, and domestic supply and demand [9] [11]. 3.2 Recent News - The preliminary agreement on China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the purchase volume and US soybean weather are still uncertain. The US soybean market is oscillating strongly in the short term, waiting for further information on South American soybean harvesting, import arrivals, and China - US trade negotiations. - The domestic import of soybeans in the first quarter continues to decline, while the soybean inventory of oil mills remains high in March. With normal weather in South American soybean planting, the bean meal has returned to an oscillating range. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits leads to low expectations of pig replenishment, suppressing the price of bean meal in March. The impact of US soybeans and weak demand for bean meal coexist. - The high inventory of domestic oil - mill bean meal, potential weather speculation in South American soybean areas, and the preliminary China - US trade agreement make the bean meal oscillate slightly stronger in the short term. It awaits further clarity on the Middle - East situation, South American soybean production, and China - US trade negotiations [13]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bean meal bullish factors: preliminary China - US trade agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans; no pressure on the inventory of domestic oil - mill bean meal; uncertain weather in South American soybean areas. - Bean meal bearish factors: high volume of imported soybeans in March; expected high yield of South American soybeans with normal weather. - Soybean bullish factors: cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports price expectations. - Soybean bearish factors: high yield of Brazilian soybeans and increased Chinese procurement; expected increase in domestic new - season soybean production suppresses prices [14] [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Transaction data: From March 20 to March 30, the average transaction price of bean meal decreased from 3396 to 3276, and the trading volume fluctuated. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal decreased from 2440 to 2330, and the trading volume was relatively low. The price difference between bean and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly [16]. - Price data: From March 23 to March 30, the prices of soybean futures and bean meal futures generally showed a downward trend, while the spot prices of soybeans and bean meal also decreased [18]. - Warehouse receipt data: From March 19 to March 30, the number of bean - one, bean - two, and bean - meal warehouse receipts decreased [20]. - Supply - demand balance sheet: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets show the changes in harvest area, output, consumption, and inventory over the years. For example, the global soybean output has generally increased from 2016 - 2025, and the domestic soybean import volume has also been at a relatively high level [32] [33]. 3.5 Position Data - No information provided in the content. 3.6 Other Market Conditions - The weekly export inspection of US soybeans has increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The arrival volume of imported soybeans has increased from a low level, also both month - on - month and year - on - year. - The soybean inventory of oil mills has slightly decreased, and the bean - meal inventory has returned to a normal level. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills remains at a relatively high level, but the bean - meal output in February has slightly decreased year - on - year. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills have slightly decreased, and the short - term stocking demand is good. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans has decreased following the oscillation of US soybeans, and the on - paper profit has fluctuated slightly. - The pig inventory has slightly increased year - on - year, while the sow inventory has decreased year - on - year and slightly month - on - month. The pig price has continued to decline recently, and the average slaughter weight has slightly decreased. The proportion of large pigs in the country has decreased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs has fluctuated slightly. The domestic pig - farming profit loss has expanded, and the pig - grain ratio and feed - meat ratio have dropped to a low level [45] [47] [50] [52] [54] [56] [58] [60] [62] [64] [66]