工业硅期货早报-20260331

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 78,000 tons, with no change from the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week, the industrial silicon demand was 68,000 tons, a 1.44% decrease from the previous week. Demand remained low. The polysilicon inventory was 332,000 tons, at a high level. The silicon wafer production was at a loss, while the battery cell production was profitable, and the component production was also profitable. The silicone inventory was 58,500 tons, at a low level, with a production profit of 2,430 yuan/ton, an overall operating rate of 68.6%, unchanged from the previous week and higher than the historical average. The aluminum alloy ingot inventory was 44,900 tons, at a high level, with an import loss of 2,487 yuan/ton. The A356 aluminum delivered to Wuxi had a freight and profit of 623.12 yuan/ton, and the recycled aluminum operating rate was 59.5%, unchanged from the previous week and at a high level [6]. - Cost: The production cost of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang was 9,769.7 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The cost support increased during the dry season [6]. - Basis: On March 30, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,150 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 670 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [6]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 560,000 tons, a 1.27% increase from the previous week. The sample enterprise inventory was 191,100 tons, a 3.38% decrease from the previous week. The main port inventory was 134,000 tons, a 1.47% decrease from the previous week [6]. - Disk: The MA20 was upward, and the 05 contract price closed below the MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position was net short, and the short position decreased [6]. - Expectation: The supply schedule increased, the demand recovery was at a low level, and the cost support increased. The industrial silicon 2605 was expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,390 - 8,570 [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the polysilicon production was 19,400 tons, a 2.10% increase from the previous week. The production schedule for March was predicted to be 84,900 tons, a 10.25% increase from the previous month [8]. - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 11.38GW, a 3.39% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory was 269,800 tons, a 2.42% decrease from the previous week. The silicon wafer production was at a loss. The production schedule for March was 49.01GW, a 10.70% increase from the previous month. In February, the battery cell production was 37.09GW, a 10.49% decrease from the previous month. Last week, the external sales factory inventory of battery cells was 6.79GW, a 16.66% increase from the previous week, and the production was profitable. The production schedule for March was 46.36GW, a 24.99% increase from the previous month. In February, the component production was 29.3GW, a 16.76% decrease from the previous month. The expected component production for March was 41.39GW, a 41.26% increase from the previous month. The domestic monthly inventory was 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease from the previous month, and the European monthly inventory was 38.41GW, a 12.30% increase from the previous month. The component production was profitable [8]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry was 40,060 yuan/ton, and the production income was - 810 yuan/ton [8]. - Basis: On March 30, the price of N - type dense material was 38,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 2,700 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [8]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 332,000 tons, a 3.48% decrease from the previous week, at a high level compared to the same period in history [8]. - Disk: The MA20 was downward, and the 05 contract price closed below the MA20 [8]. - Main Position: The main position was net long, and the long position increased [8]. - Expectation: The supply schedule continued to increase, while the demand for silicon wafers, battery cells, and components was expected to increase in the short - term and decline in the medium - term. Overall demand showed a continuous decline. Cost support remained stable. The polysilicon 2605 was expected to fluctuate in the range of 35,475 - 37,625 [8]. Overall Logic - Bullish factors: Rising cost support and manufacturers' plans to stop or reduce production [11]. - Bearish factors: Slow recovery of post - holiday demand and strong supply but weak demand in the downstream polysilicon market [12]. - Main logic: Capacity clearance, cost support, and demand increment [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Viewpoint [3][5][7] - Industrial silicon: Analyzed from supply, demand, cost, basis, inventory, disk, main position, and expectation, with a view on its future price range [6]. - Polysilicon: Analyzed from supply, demand, cost, basis, inventory, disk, main position, and expectation, with a view on its future price range [8]. 2. Industrial Silicon Market Overview [14] - Futures closing prices of different contracts showed various degrees of decline compared to the previous values. Spot prices of different grades of industrial silicon remained unchanged. Inventory data showed different trends, with some increasing and some decreasing. Production and operating rate data also showed different changes [15]. 3. Polysilicon Market Overview [16] - Futures closing prices of different contracts showed various degrees of increase or remained unchanged compared to the previous values. Prices and production data of silicon wafers, battery cells, components, etc. showed different trends, and inventory data also changed [16]. 4. Industrial Silicon Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends [18] - Showed the historical trends of the main contract basis and the price spread between 421 and 553 grades of industrial silicon [19]. 5. Industrial Silicon Inventory [21] - Presented the historical trends of industrial silicon inventory in delivery warehouses, ports, and sample enterprises, as well as the registered warrant volume [22][23]. 6. Industrial Silicon Production and Capacity Utilization Trends [25] - Showed the historical trends of weekly production, monthly production by specification, and operating rate of sample enterprises [26][27][28]. 7. Industrial Silicon Component Cost Trends [30] - Presented the historical trends of electricity prices in main production areas, silicon stone prices in main production areas, graphite electrode prices, and some reducing agent prices [31]. 8. Industrial Silicon Cost - Sample Region Trends [33] - Showed the historical cost trends of 421 and 553 grades of industrial silicon in Sichuan, Xinjiang, and Yunnan, as well as the cost differences between them [34][35]. 9. Industrial Silicon Weekly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet [37] - Analyzed the weekly supply - demand balance of industrial silicon, including production, import, export, and actual consumption [38]. 10. Industrial Silicon Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet [40] - Analyzed the monthly supply - demand balance of industrial silicon from February 2025 to February 2026, including production, import, export, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance [41]. 11. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Silicone - DMC Price and Production Trends [43] - Showed the historical trends of DMC daily capacity utilization, profit - cost, weekly production, and price [44]. 12. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Silicone - Downstream Price Trends [45] - Presented the historical price trends of 107 rubber, raw rubber, silicone oil, and D4 [46][47][48]. 13. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Silicone - Import - Export and Inventory Trends [49] - Showed the historical trends of DMC monthly import, export, and inventory [50][52]. 14. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - Price and Supply Situation [54] - Presented the historical trends of scrap aluminum recycling, scrap aluminum social inventory, aluminum scrap import volume, Chinese unforged aluminum alloy import - export situation, SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price, and import ADC12 cost - profit [55]. 15. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - Inventory and Production Trends [57] - Showed the historical trends of monthly production of primary and recycled aluminum alloy ingots, weekly operating rates of primary and recycled aluminum alloys, and aluminum alloy ingot social inventory [58]. 16. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - Demand (Automobiles and Wheels) [60] - Presented the historical trends of monthly automobile production, sales, and aluminum alloy wheel export [61]. 17. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon Fundamental Trends [64] - Showed the historical trends of polysilicon industry cost, price, total inventory, monthly production, monthly operating rate, and monthly demand [65]. 18. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon Supply - Demand Balance Sheet [67] - Analyzed the monthly supply - demand balance of polysilicon from February 2025 to February 2026, including supply, import, export, consumption, and balance [68]. 19. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Silicon Wafer Trends [70] - Presented the historical trends of silicon wafer price, weekly production, weekly inventory, monthly demand, and net export of single - crystal and poly - silicon wafers [71]. 20. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Battery Cell Trends [73] - Showed the historical trends of single - crystal P/N type battery cell price, battery cell production scheduling and actual production, photovoltaic battery external sales factory weekly inventory, photovoltaic battery operating rate, and battery cell export [74]. 21. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Photovoltaic Component Trends [76] - Presented the historical trends of component price, domestic and European photovoltaic component inventory, monthly component production, and component export [77]. 22. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Photovoltaic Accessory Trends [79] - Showed the historical trends of photovoltaic coating price, photovoltaic film import - export, photovoltaic glass monthly production, export, high - purity quartz sand price, and solder strip import - export [80]. 23. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Component Composition Cost - Profit Trends (210mm) [82] - Showed the historical trends of silicon material cost, silicon wafer profit - cost, battery cell profit - cost, and component profit - cost of 210mm double - sided double - glass components [82]. 24. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Photovoltaic Grid - Connected Power Generation Trends [83] - Presented the historical trends of national new power generation capacity, power generation composition and total amount, photovoltaic power station new grid - connected capacity, distributed photovoltaic power station new grid - connected capacity, and solar monthly power generation [84]