大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20260331

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply side of lithium carbonate has increased, with last week's production at 24,814 tons, 59% higher than the historical average. The demand side shows an increase in the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials. The cost side varies, with different production profits for different raw materials. The overall inventory is increasing, and the 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 167,160 - 177,280 [8]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include the production cut plan of lithium mica manufacturers and the decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile. Negative factors include the high - level supply from ore and salt lake ends with limited decline [9][10]. - The main logic is the emotional shock caused by news under the tight supply - demand balance [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Fundamentals: Supply increased last week, with lithium carbonate production at 24,814 tons, 59% higher than the historical average. The inventory of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials sample enterprises increased. The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 159,158 yuan/ton, with a loss of 2,142 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lithium mica is 151,428 yuan/ton, with a profit of 3,273 yuan/ton. The cost of the salt lake end is significantly lower than that of the ore end, with sufficient profit margins [8]. - Basis: On March 30, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 164,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 7,120 yuan/ton, showing a spot discount [8]. - Inventory: The smelter inventory was 17,332 tons, a 4.36% increase, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory was 46,657 tons, a 1.20% increase, higher than the historical average; other inventories were 35,500 tons, a 1.82% decrease, lower than the historical average; the total inventory was 99,489 tons, a 0.62% increase, lower than the historical average [8]. - Disk: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract is above the MA20, showing a neutral situation [8]. - Main Force Position: The net short position of the main force is decreasing, showing a bearish situation [8]. - Expectation: In February 2026, the production of lithium carbonate was 83,090 physical tons, and it is predicted that next month's production will be 106,390 physical tons, a 28.04% increase. The import volume is expected to increase by 19.27%. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be depleted. The CIF price of 6% concentrate has increased daily, and the demand - leading situation has weakened. The 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 167,160 - 177,280 [8]. 3.2 Market Overview - Upstream Prices: The prices of lithium spodumene, lithium mica concentrate, and other upstream products have increased to varying degrees. For example, the price of lithium spodumene (6%) increased from 2,230 to 2,313 US dollars/ton, a 3.72% increase [14]. - Disk Prices and Basis: The prices of various lithium salts, cathode materials, and lithium batteries have changed. For example, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased from 158,000 to 164,500 yuan/ton, a 4.11% increase [14]. 3.3 Supply - Related - Lithium Ore: The price of lithium ore (6% CIF) has changed over time. The production of lithium spodumene mines and lithium mica in China has different trends. The import volume of lithium concentrate has decreased, and the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore has also changed [24]. - Lithium Carbonate: The weekly and monthly production, capacity, and import volume of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, and recycling) have different trends and changes [31]. - Lithium Hydroxide: The weekly capacity utilization rate, monthly production, and export volume of lithium hydroxide have changed. The production from smelting and causticizing sources also shows different trends [40]. 3.4 Cost - Profit of Lithium Compounds - The cost and profit of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, and recycled materials for lithium carbonate production have changed over time. The processing cost composition of lithium mica and lithium spodumene also shows different proportions [46]. - The profit of lithium carbonate import, industrial - grade lithium carbonate purification, and lithium hydroxide carbonation to lithium carbonate has changed [46][49]. 3.5 Inventory - The weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelter, downstream, etc.) has changed. The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts has also increased [54]. 3.6 Demand - Related - Lithium Battery - Power Battery: The price, production, loading volume, and export volume of power batteries have changed. The cost of power battery cells has also changed [57]. - Lithium Battery - Energy Storage: The inventory, winning bid situation, production, and cost of energy - storage batteries have changed [59]. - Ternary Precursor: The price, cost, processing fee, capacity utilization rate, and production of ternary precursors have changed. The supply - demand balance also shows different situations [62][65]. - Ternary Material: The price, cost, profit, processing fee, production, and inventory of ternary materials have changed [70][73]. - Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Iron Lithium: The price, production cost, profit, capacity, and production of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium have changed [74]. - New Energy Vehicle: The production, sales, export volume, and sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles have changed [82].