贵金属日评-20260331

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, geopolitical risks boost the safe - haven demand for precious metals, but the oil fiscal crisis in the Middle East leads to gold selling, and high oil prices cause central bank tightening concerns, weakening the liquidity premium of precious metals and hitting the industrial demand expectations of industrial precious metals. Gold prices will face adjustment pressure until the Middle East oil crisis is completely resolved, and the adjustment range of industrial precious metals is relatively larger. It is recommended to trade gold with an interval operation idea and consider a hedging strategy of going long on gold and short on industrial precious metals while reducing positions and increasing position flexibility [4]. - In the medium - term, affected by factors such as international trade chaos, a gloomy global economic growth outlook, the Fed's loose monetary policy, and rising geopolitical risks, the precious metals sector is expected to continue to rise along the upward trend line since September 2025. However, the rise in precious metals driven by geopolitical conflicts is often short - lived, and the volatility of the precious metals sector remains high. It is recommended that investors continue to hold a bullish view while controlling positions [6]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Precious Metals Market Trends and Outlook - Intraday Trends: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East boost the safe - haven demand for precious metals. However, the oil fiscal crisis in the Middle East leads to gold selling, and high oil prices cause central bank tightening concerns, which weaken the liquidity premium of precious metals and hit the industrial demand expectations of industrial precious metals. In March, London gold rebounded to around $4,500 per ounce after adjusting to $4,100 per ounce. Before the Middle East oil crisis is completely resolved, gold prices will face adjustment pressure, and the adjustment range of industrial precious metals is relatively larger. London gold shows support around $3,800 - $4,200 per ounce. It is recommended to trade gold with an interval operation idea and consider a hedging strategy of going long on gold and short on industrial precious metals while reducing positions and increasing position flexibility. This week, pay attention to the Iran war situation, US March employment data, global March PMI data, and the Fed Chairman's speech [4]. - Medium - term Trends: After a sharp decline at the end of January due to the Fed's suspension of interest rate cuts and Trump's nomination of a hawkish Fed Chairman candidate, the precious metals sector showed a strong sign of stabilizing and rebounding in February. International trade turmoil and Middle East geopolitical risks have increased the safe - haven demand for precious metals. Affected by multiple factors, the precious metals sector is expected to continue to rise along the upward trend line since September 2025. However, the rise in precious metals driven by geopolitical conflicts is often short - lived, and the volatility of the precious metals sector remains high. It is recommended that investors continue to hold a bullish view while controlling positions, and long - hedgers can seize the opportunity to establish hedging positions, while short - hedgers should appropriately reduce hedging positions [6]. II. Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold TD, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [8][10][16]. III. Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - Geopolitical Risks: The risk of the Iran war expanding has increased. The Houthi armed forces in Yemen attacked Israel for the first time since the outbreak of the war, and the US is preparing for a ground operation in Iran. The US has only destroyed about one - third of Iran's missile arsenal, and the situation of another one - third is unclear [17]. - Shipping Restrictions: Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps has banned shipping to or from ports of Israel's allies and supporters, and the Hormuz Strait is closed [17]. - Central Bank Statements: Richmond Fed President Barkin believes it is appropriate to keep interest rates unchanged due to the US - Iran conflict and the rapid spread of artificial intelligence. Philadelphia Fed President Paulson warns that the long - term high inflation rate in the US may turn the commodity shock caused by the Iran war into a more serious problem [18].