有色早报-20260331

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The copper price rebounded to the 95,000 - 96,000 range this week, and the medium - term view is bullish. The decline in the short - term is due to inventory pressure and potential interest rate hikes and liquidity pressures caused by geopolitical conflicts [1] - The price of aluminum is affected by the situation in Iran and oil prices. After the attacks on aluminum plants in the UAE and Bahrain, the supply transaction may become the main idea in the short term, and the fundamentals are improving [1] - The supply of zinc ore is expected to be tight in the medium term, and there is a risk of production cuts overseas. The domestic fundamentals are average [2] - The price of nickel is expected to fluctuate within a range under the influence of weak fundamentals and supply - side policy intervention [3][4] - The price of stainless steel is expected to follow the nickel price and fluctuate within a range [7] - The price of lead is expected to maintain a weak - side shock influenced by overseas inventory and recycled lead profit [8][9] - The price of tin is greatly affected by global macro - liquidity. If liquidity is loose, the upside potential is strong; if liquidity tightens, the price may decline [12] - The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate with costs in the short term and bottom - oscillate seasonally in the long term [13][15] - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to be macro - driven in the short term, and the probability of spot shortage is high in the second quarter [17] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - This week, the copper price rebounded to 95,000 - 96,000. The supply of scrap copper is expected to remain tight, and the refined copper inventory may further decline. The consumption of refined copper is strong after the Spring Festival. Although Goldman Sachs has lowered the consumption growth rate of domestic electrolytic copper in 2026, the progress of aluminum replacing copper is debatable. The medium - term view on copper is bullish [1] Aluminum - Affected by the situation in Iran and oil prices, the price volatility has slightly converged. After the attacks on aluminum plants in the UAE and Bahrain, the global electrolytic aluminum production growth rate has declined. The overseas premium has increased, the visible inventory has decreased, the domestic aluminum ingot inventory has changed from increasing to decreasing, and the processing fee of aluminum rods has rebounded. The export processing of aluminum plants is expected to be more prosperous [1] Zinc - The benchmark price for the long - term contract negotiation is 85 US dollars. The supply of zinc ore is expected to be tight in the medium term. The domestic and imported TC are at a low level. The resumption of production of northern mines in spring is expected to drive a rebound. The smelting profit is acceptable. The downstream has resumed production with some hesitation, and the overall inventory has accumulated to over 250,000 tons. There is a risk of production cuts overseas [2] Nickel - The supply of pure nickel decreased in February. The demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the premiums of Jinchuan and Russian nickel are weak. The domestic inventory is increasing, and the LME inventory is slightly decreasing. The short - term fundamentals are weak. Due to the policy of Indonesia to strengthen nickel price control, the supply of nickel ore is expected to be tight throughout the year. The nickel price is expected to fluctuate within a range [3][4] Stainless Steel - The steel mill's production schedule has decreased slightly. The downstream is gradually recovering. The ore price has pushed up the prices of ferronickel and ferrochrome. The inventory has decreased slightly this week, and the warehouse receipts have slightly decreased. The fundamentals are weak. Affected by the policy of Indonesia to strengthen nickel price control, it is expected to follow the nickel price and fluctuate within a range [7] Lead - The profit of primary lead is sufficient, and the start - up rate of concentrate mines in spring is expected to increase, driving the TC to rebound. The resumption of production of recycled lead is expected to be delayed in March. The battery start - up rate has recovered this week, and the inventory of dealers' battery products has decreased. The production schedule in March is improving. The spot social inventory has decreased by nearly 20,000 tons this week. The price of lead is expected to maintain a weak - side shock [8][9] Tin - The tin price fluctuated this week, suppressed by liquidity pressure. The supply in Wabang is expected to recover rapidly in the second quarter, and the domestic processing fee has a slight upward trend. Indonesia's quota in 2026 is over 60,000 tons, with a small inventory accumulation. There are supply - side risks. The demand is relatively strong, and the inventory is mainly in the exchange. The price is greatly affected by global macro - liquidity [12] Industrial Silicon - Some factories in the north have maintenance plans, and the overall start - up rate has not changed significantly. In the southwest, small and medium - sized factories are mostly shut down at the end of the dry season, and most factories are still waiting to see about starting up in the wet season. The supply and demand are close to balance, and the price is expected to fluctuate with costs. In the long term, the over - capacity of industrial silicon is still high, and the price is expected to oscillate at the seasonal marginal cost bottom [13][15] Lithium Carbonate - Recently, the futures market has been strong due to the failure of the expected resumption of exports from Zimbabwe and concerns about Australian ore supply. The raw material supply is tight, and the lithium salt processing fee is decreasing. Lithium salt enterprises are holding prices and waiting to see, and the downstream is purchasing at a low level. The spot contradiction is weakening in the short term, and the price is macro - driven. In the second quarter, the probability of spot shortage is high, but the upside space needs further factors to open up [17]