原油成品油早报-20260331

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, oil prices fluctuated at high levels. On Friday, the situation between the US and Iran was tense, and the absolute price strengthened again. The Brent monthly spread reached a new high, the Oman crude oil discount weakened significantly, and the spot prices of crude oil around the world converged. The US does not rule out planning a ground offensive, and it is unclear to what extent Trump has approved the Pentagon's action plan. The passage of VLCCs in the Strait of Hormuz remains interrupted, and Saudi Arabia has fully shifted its exports to Yanbu Port, with a maximum export volume of 5 million barrels per day. Currently, there is no supply interruption in Saudi Arabia, and attention should be paid to the subsequent export situation at Yanbu Port. In the refined oil market, the cracking spread of European diesel reached a new high, the refined oil inventory in ARA in Europe decreased significantly, and the refined oil inventory in the US increased. Before the passage of the strait is restored, the fundamental interruption volume continues. Recently, the situation has escalated, and the absolute price has increased, but attention should be paid to the price fluctuation risk caused by Trump's TACO [4]. Group 3: Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily News - European officials revealed that Iran is pressuring the Houthi armed forces to prepare for a new round of shipping attacks in the Red Sea if the US takes any further escalation actions in the war against Iran. There are differences within the Houthi leadership regarding the level of radical strategy to adopt. The Houthi armed forces said they will continue military operations until the US and Israel stop attacking Iran and its proxy organizations, without specifically mentioning targeting oil tankers or other vessels in the Red Sea. US and Saudi officials believe the Houthi armed forces currently hope to avoid further escalation of the situation and attacks on US and Saudi assets, but the longer the US and Israel's war against Iran lasts, the greater the possibility of Houthi attacks in the Red Sea [3]. - The White House said that negotiations with Iran are still ongoing and progressing smoothly, but there is a difference between Iran's public statements and what it privately tells US officials [3]. - US President Trump confirmed that the US is in dialogue with Iranian Parliament Speaker Kalibaf regarding ending the war. Kalibaf denies having any negotiations with the US, but experts believe he is a hard - liner and has the conditions to reach an agreement [3][4]. - Data shows that Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports from Red Sea ports have increased to nearly 5 million barrels per day, and such diversion of transportation has offset about 45% of the export losses in the Persian Gulf this month [3][4]. 2. Weekly Inventory - In the week of March 20, US crude oil exports decreased by 1.576 million barrels per day to 3.322 million barrels per day [4]. - In the week of March 20, US domestic crude oil production decreased by 0.011 million barrels to 13.657 million barrels per day [4]. - Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 6.926 million barrels to 456 million barrels, an increase of 1.54% [4]. - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.678 million barrels per day, a 2.37% increase compared to the same period last year [4]. - In the week of March 20, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory remained unchanged at 415.4 million barrels [4]. - In the week of March 20, US commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 6.464 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.73 million barrels per day compared to the previous week [4].