建信期货铁矿石日评-20260331

Report Information - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: March 31, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - If the news about the relaxation of the BHP iron ore ban is true, the previously piled - up BHP iron ore at ports may gradually enter the market, causing the ore price to be weak in the short term. However, as downstream demand gradually recovers and steel enterprises maintain a stable resumption of production rhythm, the ore price may strengthen again after the short - term impact fades [11] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Future Outlook 1.1 Spot Market Dynamics and Technical Analysis - On March 30, the main quotes of major iron ore outer disks increased by $0.2 per ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of major grade iron ores at Qingdao Port remained the same as the previous trading day [9] - For the iron ore 2605 contract, the daily KDJ indicator continued to decline, and the red bars of the daily MACD indicator had been narrowing for 9 consecutive trading days [9] 1.2 Future Outlook - News: According to the West Australian on March 15, some domestic steel mills received a notice to temporarily relax the restrictions on a certain BHP iron ore variety. Some domestic steel mills have been allowed to extract the BHP Jimblebar iron ore that was previously积压 at ports due to the ban [10] - Fundamentals: Last week, the shipments from Australia and Brazil rebounded, increasing by 736,000 tons to 24.583 million tons, and the arrival volume also increased by 566,000 tons to 22.716 million tons. The total shipments from 19 ports in the past four weeks increased by 6.99% compared with the previous four weeks, and the subsequent arrival volume is expected to recover [10][11] - Demand: Affected by the production restrictions of some steel enterprises during the Two Sessions, the daily average pig iron output decreased significantly. Since last week, the resumption of production of steel enterprises has accelerated, and the daily average pig iron output has rebounded to over 2.3 million tons. With the arrival of the peak demand season, the pig iron output is expected to have further growth space [11] - Inventory: This week, the available days of inventory increased by 2 days to 23 days and are expected to remain around 20 - 23 days. The port inventory decreased slightly this week but remained at a relatively high level of 170 million tons. Considering the possible relaxation of the BHP iron ore ban, the short - term inventory may decline further [11] 2. Industry News - Kpler's Muyu Xu said that the Mandeb Strait has become an increasingly important route for Middle - East crude oil supplies to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. In March so far, 4.14 million barrels of crude oil pass through the strait daily, a significant increase from 2.95 million barrels per day in February, reaching the highest level since October 2023 [12] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the prices of major iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between high - grade/ low - grade ores and PB powder, the basis between iron ore spot and the May contract at Qingdao Port, the shipping volumes from Brazil and Australia, the arrival volumes at 45 ports, the capacity utilization rate of domestic mines, the trading volumes at major ports, the inventory available days of steel mills, the inventory of imported sintered powder ore, the port iron ore inventory and dispatch volume, the tax - free pig iron cost of sample steel mills, the blast furnace and electric furnace start - up rates and capacity utilization rates, the national daily average pig iron output, the apparent consumption of five major steel products, the weekly output of five major steel products, and the steel mill inventory of five major steel products. All data sources are from Mysteel and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [14][20][22]